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Market confidence is returning, with fine wine prices posting their first quarterly gain since the downturn began.
Selective regions are leading the rebound, with Champagne, Tuscany, and California showing the strongest signs of growth.
Stabilisation signals a turning point, as price declines slow and demand strengthens.

After two years of subdued performance, the fine wine market may finally be entering a new phase. Signs of stabilisation are emerging across key benchmarks, and selective pockets of growth suggest that investor confidence is beginning to return. While the broader market remains uneven, improving bid activity, regional resilience, and a shift in sentiment all point to a turning point — one that could lay the foundation for the next cycle of fine wine appreciation.

Confidence returns: Benchmark momentum

One of the clearest signals of renewed optimism comes from the bid:offer ratio — a measure of market confidence based on the proportion of active bids to offers on the secondary market. This ratio has been steadily rising, reflecting stronger buying interest and a more balanced trading environment. The shift is also visible in performance indices: the Liv-ex 100, which tracks the world’s most sought-after investment-grade wines, rose by 1.1% in September, offsetting earlier summer losses and delivering its first quarterly gain since the downturn began.

This rebound was mirrored across broader indicators. The Liv-ex 1000, which captures a wider cross-section of the market, slipped 0.5% over the quarter but also gained 0.4% in September — a sign that the market’s base may be firming. Even the First Growths Index, a bellwether for Bordeaux’s top estates, recorded a 0.7% gain in September. Though it remained slightly down for the quarter, the performance underscores a market that is recalibrating.

Where growth is emerging: key regional categories

The nascent recovery is not evenly distributed. Instead, certain regions and categories are emerging as clear leaders — offering clues about where value-seeking investors are positioning their capital.

Champagne: Resilience meets renewed demand

Champagne has once again proved its resilience. The region held near-flat over Q3 and remains one of the strongest performers of 2025, buoyed by rising demand from Asia and the US. This sustained appetite reflects Champagne’s unique position in the market: a luxury category with strong brand recognition, limited supply, and consistent global demand. For investors seeking stability and long-term performance, Champagne continues to justify its reputation as a defensive yet rewarding allocation.

Italy: Tuscany outpaces Piedmont

Italian fine wine remains a story of two regions. Tuscany has seen the most notable improvement, with the Italy 100 index climbing as buyers return to iconic Super Tuscans and Brunello producers. Piedmont, by contrast, still faces a softer bid environment, suggesting that investors are prioritising wines with immediate liquidity and strong global followings. The divergence illustrates a broader theme in today’s market: capital is flowing toward estates with established demand and clear brand equity.

California: Opus One leads a rebound

California has also been a bright spot. Opus One — one of the region’s most recognisable labels — has seen its strongest bid activity since January 2024. Over recent weeks, Liv-ex reported a surge in demand, with the US accounting for 40% of bid volume, closely followed by Asia at 39%. The UK and EU trail at 14% and 7% respectively, but this transatlantic interest highlights growing enthusiasm for top-tier Californian wines. As collectors seek quality and scarcity beyond Europe, California’s flagship estates are once again capturing attention.

Sector performance: Signs of a bottom forming

While some areas continue to lag, the broader data suggests that the worst of the correction may be behind us. Regional indices delivered a mixed performance in Q3, but declines moderated significantly, and September brought widespread gains.

Bordeaux remains the weakest performer in aggregate — the Bordeaux 500 fell 1.7% — but even here, signs of improvement are visible. Half of the region’s sub-indices gained in September, including those tracking First Growths, Second Wines, and leading Right Bank labels. Burgundy, too, was only marginally lower (-0.2%), with top domaines maintaining impressive resilience despite broader headwinds.

Together, these indicators suggest a market that may be finding its floor. Price declines have slowed, buyers are becoming more active, and selective demand is driving performance in certain regions and producers. This kind of stabilisation typically precedes a period of gradual re-pricing — and potentially, recovery.

The next phase: Selectivity, scarcity, and strategy

The third quarter of 2025 was a transitional one for fine wine. With mainstream assets recovering and investor sentiment stabilising, the asset class is beginning to reassert itself as a reliable store of value and a portfolio diversifier. The coming quarters are likely to be defined by three key drivers:

Scarcity: Limited-production wines from renowned estates continue to attract demand, particularly as global supply chains tighten and yields remain historically low.
Selectivity: Investors are becoming more discerning, focusing on regions and producers with strong fundamentals rather than chasing broader market exposure.
Reputation: Brand equity and consistent critical acclaim remain decisive factors, with top names enjoying disproportionate interest as confidence returns.

While the pace of recovery will vary by region and price tier, the data points to a market that is stabilising and, in some segments, already turning higher. For investors with a medium- to long-term horizon, the current environment offers attractive entry points into historically strong-performing categories.

Looking for more? Read our latest quarterly report: Q3 Fine Wine Report

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

Fine wine investment differs significantly from traditional markets because supply diminishes with time.
Holding periods determine whether an investor benefits from liquidity windows, maturity or scarcity premiums.
Investors should not expect uniform results across all wines or timeframes.

When it comes to fine wine investment, most discussions focus on the what: which wines, which vintages, which regions. Equally critical, but less often addressed, is the when: how long you hold your investment.

Holding periods can dramatically shape your returns, mitigate risks, and define your overall strategy. Unlike equities or bonds, fine wine is both a physical asset and a cultural commodity, with unique cycles of demand and consumption. Understanding how time interacts with these cycles is essential for building a resilient portfolio.

Why holding periods matter in wine investment

Fine wine investment differs from traditional markets in one key respect: supply diminishes over time. Bottles are uncorked and consumed, which means that scarcity increases naturally as years pass. At the same time, the wines themselves evolve in bottle, often improving in complexity and desirability. This dual dynamic of shrinking availability and increasing quality drives long-term price appreciation.

However, investors cannot expect uniform results across all wines or timeframes. Some wines appreciate rapidly within a few years, while others demand decades of patience. Holding periods determine whether an investor benefits from:

Liquidity windows – when supply and demand align to create strong secondary market interest.
Maturity premiums – when wines are at or approaching their drinking peak.
Scarcity premiums – when older vintages are nearly impossible to source.

Short-term wine investment holds (1–3 years): Potential high gains?

Short-term holding in fine wine is less common but not without opportunity. Investors might target wines with clear catalysts for appreciation in the near future:

Critical acclaim: A 100-point score from leading critics such as Robert Parker, Neal Martin, or Antonio Galloni can trigger immediate demand.
Market cycles and estate events: Certain vintages or regions may benefit from renewed attention during En Primeur campaigns or La Place de Bordeaux releases. Similarly, external factors such as a change of ownership, the passing of a renowned winemaker, or a significant new investment in the estate can act as a catalyst. These events often lead to brand repositioning and higher release prices for new vintages, which in turn push up the value of older vintages as buyers seek relative value.
Macro-drivers: Currency fluctuations, tariff shifts or geopolitical events can create short-term arbitrage opportunities.

That said, short-term holds may carry higher volatility. Transaction costs – storage, insurance, brokerage fees – also eat more heavily into returns when compounded over only a few years. As a result, short-term trading tends to suit sophisticated investors with high market awareness rather than long-term collectors.

Medium-term wine investment holds (5–10 years): The sweet spot?

The medium-term horizon is often considered the sweet spot for many wine investors. This is when:

Wines mature: Many Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Champagne houses see optimal secondary market demand when their wines are 5–10 years post-vintage. At this stage, they have begun to show character but remain relatively youthful, making them appealing to both collectors and drinkers.
Supply drops: The first wave of consumption removes weaker hands from the market, while professional storage ensures the surviving bottles command a premium.
Liquidity is strong: Buyers – both private and institutional – seek wines that are ready-to-drink but still have substantial cellaring potential.

This period allows investors to capture meaningful appreciation without committing to decades of illiquidity. For many, the medium-term strategy provides a balance of growth potential and portfolio flexibility.

Long-term wine investment holds (10–20+ years): Scarcity and compounding value?

For truly iconic wines, long-term holding unlocks the greatest rewards. Scarcity compounds dramatically after 15–20 years, and mature bottles often become the centrepiece of collectors’ cellars. Wines that especially benefit from this approach include:

First Growth Bordeaux: Château Lafite, Latour, and Margaux often reach their full secondary market potential decades after release.
Grand Cru Burgundy: Producers like Domaine de la Romanée-Conti or Armand Rousseau are prized for aged expressions, which are scarce even at release.
Prestige Champagne: Top cuvées such as Krug or Salon are often held back by maisons themselves, releasing older vintages at a premium.

The trade-off is clear: long-term holding requires patience, optimal storage, and careful insurance. Illiquidity can become an issue if capital is needed suddenly. However, for investors with a multi-decade outlook, these holds can deliver extraordinary compounding returns – often well outperforming traditional assets.

Factors that impact value over time

Not all wines follow the same trajectory. Determining how long to hold depends on a mix of factors:

Region and style
- Bordeaux and Napa Cabernet: typically longer arcs, rewarding 10–20+ years.
- Burgundy Pinot Noir: often peaks earlier (7–15 years), though the best can go much longer.
- Champagne: prestige cuvées benefit from extended ageing, while non-vintage wines are less suited to investment.
Producer reputation
Iconic names command steady demand across all stages, while lesser-known producers may see sharper peaks tied to critical acclaim.
Vintage quality
Strong vintages (e.g., Bordeaux 2000, Champagne 2008) often sustain demand longer, while weaker vintages may peak quickly.
Critic scores and re-releases
A re-rating or late-release program can extend or shift the ideal holding window.
Market conditions
Global economic health, currency exchange rates, and tariffs can all affect when it’s most profitable to sell.

Risks of mistimed holding

Holding periods are not without risk. Selling too early can mean missing out on peak premiums. Selling too late risks encountering diminishing returns as wines pass their drinking window. Additionally, improper storage can compromise value, no matter the holding period. There are also liquidity risks: Even top wines may face temporary illiquidity in weak markets.
This is why professional portfolio management and exit planning are critical in fine wine investment.

Practical guidance for wine investors

Diversify holding periods: Mix short, medium, and long-term positions across your portfolio. This smooths out returns and provides liquidity when needed.
Match horizon to goals: If you expect to need capital in five years, avoid exclusively long-term wines.
Work with data: Tools like Wine Track can help identify optimal exit windows by tracking price curves and critic sentiment.
Reassess regularly: Market conditions evolve. A wine planned for long-term holding may benefit from earlier exit if demand spikes unexpectedly.

In fine wine investment, holding periods are the mechanism by which wine transforms from a consumable product into an appreciating asset. Short-term traders may profit from timing and market-driven gains, medium-term investors enjoy liquidity and strong demand, and long-term holders benefit from scarcity-driven premiums.

The best approach often combines all three, balancing risk and opportunity across different time horizons. With the right strategy, time becomes your most powerful ally – quietly compounding value as the bottles rest in the cellar.

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