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Bordeaux: Is the downturn finally ending?

  • Bordeaux prices have hit support levels across top wines and prime vintages.
  • First Growths lead the way in market stabilisation. 
  • The market’s most reliable signals of recovery – improved liquidity, narrowing spreads, and renewed price consistency – are beginning to appear in Bordeaux.

In July, WineCap reported that Champagne prices appeared to be stabilising. Our research into the ten most-searched prestige cuvées on Wine-Searcher found that 47 out of 50 wines had maintained price stability for at least three months – and 40 for six months or more. Since then, the Liv-ex Champagne 50 index has risen 1.6% on average.

Fast forward a few months, and signs of stabilisation have begun to emerge across the broader fine wine market. The Liv-ex 100 index, which represents the most sought-after fine wines globally, rose 2% over September and October. Gains were supported by sterling weakness, renewed buyer demand, and an improving bid:offer ratio, all suggesting that confidence is returning to the market.

Bordeaux, still the largest and most liquid segment of the fine wine world, also reflects this shift. Our latest research reveals that a growing share of Bordeaux’s top wines – from First Growths to leading Second Growths – have found support levels after a prolonged correction, suggesting the market may be nearing its floor.

Our methodology

To identify whether Bordeaux prices are indeed hitting support levels, WineCap analysed two baskets of wines across fifteen physical vintages:

  • First Growths + Cheval Blanc: Lafite Rothschild, Mouton Rothschild, Château Margaux, Haut-Brion, and Cheval Blanc – 75 wines across 15 vintages.
  • Top Second Growths: Pontet-Canet, Lynch-Bages, Palmer, Montrose, Cos d’Estournel, and Léoville Las Cases – 90 wines across the same period.

Because of Château Latour’s unique release schedule and limited market volume since the 2011 vintage, it was excluded from the analysis. To ensure coverage of all recent prime vintages, we expanded our dataset to include the 2005 vintage alongside the 2008–2021 range.

Price stability was defined as a period of at least three months without meaningful movement – a signal that buying and selling pressure have reached equilibrium. This approach captures early indicators of market turning points, where sellers have adjusted expectations and buyers begin to re-engage.

First Growths: Signs of strength

Among the first group of wines, covering four of the First Growths and Cheval Blanc, 47 out of 75 wines (just over 60%) have kept their value firm. Lafite Rothschild is the standout performer, with 12 of its 15 vintages maintaining stable prices.

When isolating the prime vintages – 2005, 2009, 2010, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020 – the pattern becomes even clearer. Across these, 29 of 35 wines (83%) are price stable, including every single Lafite vintage in the set. Mouton Rothschild and Château Margaux, meanwhile, have maintained stability in five out of seven vintages (just over 70%).

The data further highlight the gap between prime and off-vintages. Among the less-heralded years of 2011–2014, only four out of twenty wines are stable, suggesting continued downward pressure where trading volume is lower. This divergence reinforces a key principle: in periods of market weakness, liquidity and confidence concentrate around the most established players.

Bordeaux fine wine prices table

Second Growths: Following the leaders

Second Growths often act as the market’s echo chamber. They don’t move first, but when they start to stabilise, it confirms that sentiment is improving and buyers are returning.

Among Bordeaux’s 90 elite Second Growths, 49 (55%) are now price stable. When focusing on prime vintages, that figure rises to 26 out of 42 (62%).

This suggests that the stabilisation process has been underway for several months, gradually filtering from First Growths down to the wider market. Historically, such a pattern has preceded broader upturns, as investors and collectors begin to seek relative value further down the classification ladder.

Château Palmer and Cos d’Estournel have led this segment, with 11 and 10 of 15 vintages respectively showing resilience. Both have five out of seven stable prime vintages, alongside Château Pontet-Canet. Lynch-Bages and Léoville Las Cases, meanwhile, have seen stability emerge more recently and across a narrower base of vintages.

Broader market context

The timing of this Bordeaux stabilisation coincides with modest gains across major Liv-ex indices, including the Bordeaux Legends 50 and Fine Wine 1000, both of which posted small rises in recent months.

Beyond wine-specific factors, macroeconomic influences have also played a role. Sterling weakness since late summer has improved overseas buying power, while rising global demand (reflected in a higher bid:offer ratio on Liv-ex) signals growing confidence.

In short, the market’s most reliable signals of recovery – improved liquidity, narrowing spreads, and renewed price consistency – are beginning to appear in key regions.

Taken together, the evidence suggests that prime-vintage Bordeaux First Growths have reached stability, while top Second Growths are close behind. In standout years such as 2005, 2010, 2016, and 2019, all tracked wines are now price stable, indicating strong market support.

Weaker vintages remain under pressure, but history shows that stabilisation at the top of the market often precedes wider recovery. With the Liv-ex 100 up 2%, the bid:offer ratio climbing, and sentiment improving, the fine wine market appears to be entering a new phase of balance. Indeed, these conditions may represent the most compelling entry point into Bordeaux since 2020.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Fine wine investment returns: if you’d put £1,000 in 10 years ago

Fine wine has long been celebrated as both a pleasure to own and a source of steady, inflation-beating returns. But how much difference can the choice of region, producer, and timing make over the long term?

Using Wine Track data, we’ve taken a decade-long view – from 2015 to 2025 – to see exactly how a £1,000 investment in some of the world’s most sought-after wines would have performed. The results reveal disparities between regions and labels, driven by factors such as scarcity, critical acclaim, brand momentum, and the fluctuations of global demand.

In some cases, your £1,000 would have barely kept pace with inflation. In others, it could have doubled, tripled, or even more – often in places you might not expect. What’s more, because fine wine is a cyclical market, today’s leaders aren’t always tomorrow’s winners, and periods of market correction can present some of the best opportunities for future growth.

This analysis explores several key regions, showing not just the percentage returns but also what your £1,000 investment would be worth today, and what you could have bought then compared with now.

Bordeaux: a decade of divergence

In 2015, a £1,000 investment in a top Bordeaux could have taken very different paths over the following decade. If you had chosen Château Figeac, your £1,000 would now be worth £2,310 – more than doubling your money thanks to a +131% average return over the past decade. This performance has been fuelled by Figeac’s promotion to Premier Grand Cru Classé A and consistently high-scoring vintages.

Château Les Carmes Haut-Brion in Pessac-Léognan has been another star performer, climbing 163% over the past ten years. This is a rare combination of strong brand momentum, critical acclaim, and relative scarcity, making it one of the most compelling growth stories in the Bordeaux market.

By contrast, the First Growths have had a more subdued performance. Looking at the current average market prices for the several blue-chip Pauillac labels and their second wines, the past decade has been anything but uniform:

  • Château Lafite Rothschild sits today at around £5,106 per case, up just 6% over the last decade. This reflects both its lofty 2015 starting point and the cooling of the top-tier Bordeaux segment in recent years. However, some vintages have outperformed the overall brand.
  • Château Latour is similar, with a 10-year rise of 4%, now averaging £4,960 per case.
  • Château Mouton Rothschild fared better, with a 22% decade-long gain to £4,496 per case, thanks partly to strong demand for key vintages in the late 2010s.

The best relative value in the First Growth orbit has often been found in their second wines:

This ‘second wine premium’ over the decade illustrates a key point for investors: sometimes the best relative value comes not from the pinnacle labels, but from their immediate tier below. These wines benefit from the halo effect of the grand vin’s reputation while offering lower starting prices.

However, the current context matters. The performance of the Liv-ex 50 (First Growths) and Bordeaux 500 (broader region) shows how the 2022 peak has given way to a sharp correction, with prices now trending towards 2015 levels. This is classic market cyclicality: those who bought during the previous trough and held through the rally have realised strong gains; those entering now may be positioning themselves at the start of the next upswing.

Burgundy: the market reset

If Bordeaux’s decade has been a story of cyclical swings and selective outperformance, Burgundy’s has been one of explosive gains followed by a sharp correction. The Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index more than quadrupled between 2015 and its 2022 peak, fuelled by surging global demand for small-production, high-prestige domaines. Since then, prices have retraced significantly, but remain far above their 2015 levels, underscoring the long-term wealth-generating power of the region’s top wines.

At the very top sits Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, Romanée-Conti Grand Cru, whose sky-high starting point means it was always going to operate in a different financial stratosphere to most wines. Over the past decade, prices have risen by 147%, elevating the wine’s average price per case to £213,303.

Among the biggest long-term winners is Domaine René Engel, Vosne-Romanée Premier Cru Aux Brûlées, which has climbed 1,482% in the past decade. That’s enough to turn £1,000 into a staggering £15,820 today. Engel’s cult status has only intensified since the sudden passing of Philippe Engel in 2005, leaving the estate without a clear successor, and its eventual sale to François Pinault, who renamed it Domaine d’Eugénie.

Meanwhile, Domaine Leroy Richebourg Grand Cru has appreciated by 507% over the same period, due to a combination of biodynamic viticulture, minuscule yields, and demand consistently outstripping supply.

The sheer magnitude of these returns reflects Burgundy’s unique market dynamics:

  • Scarcity at every level – often just a handful of barrels per cru.
  • Global demand from Asia to the Americas.
  • Producer-led brand power that eclipses even vintage variation in driving prices.

Yet the post-2022 decline in Burgundy shows that even this hallowed region is not immune to market cycles. For investors, today’s lower prices could represent a rare opportunity to enter or rebalance Burgundy holdings – though the barriers to entry at the very top remain as formidable as ever.

Champagne: the market fizzes with potential

Champagne has traditionally been viewed as a steady, blue-chip corner of the fine wine market: less volatile than Burgundy and Bordeaux, yet capable of delivering strong long-term growth. Over the past decade, the Champagne 50 index has shown a clear upward trajectory, punctuated by a sharp rally between 2019 and 2022 before a mild correction. 

The most eye-catching long-term gains have come not only from the established houses but also from small-production grower-producers like Egly-Ouriet, Brut Millésime Grand Cru, which has surged 633% in the last decade. That growth has been fuelled by a wave of sommelier-driven interest in terroir-driven Champagne and limited allocations reaching the market.

Prestige cuvées from major houses have also rewarded patient investors. Salon Le Mesnil-sur-Oger Grand Cru has delivered a 298% return, while Billecart-Salmon Le Clos Saint-Hilaire climbed 203%.

A particularly notable outlier is Cédric Bouchard, Rosé de Saignée Le Creux d’Enfer, with an extraordinary 418% return – turning £1,000 into £5,180 – reflecting the explosive demand for rare, artisanal Champagne in recent years.

Champagne’s appeal lies in its dual identity: both a luxury good for immediate enjoyment and a serious investment asset. With the market cooling slightly from 2022 highs, current conditions may offer attractive entry points for those looking to secure allocations before the next phase of appreciation.

Italy: quiet consistency and standout performers

Italy’s fine wine market has been a story of steady, broad-based growth over the past decade, delivering consistent returns and avoiding some of the more extreme volatility seen in Burgundy or Champagne. 

At the very top of the performance table sits G.B. Burlotto Barolo Monvigliero, with a remarkable 1,162% return over the last ten years. In Tuscany, Soldera Casse Basse, Brunello di Montalcino Riserva has been a powerhouse, rising 280% over the decade. The modern Tuscan icon Masseto has also posted a healthy 79%, taking £1,000 to £1,790.

Italy’s appeal lies in its combination of relative affordability, quality across multiple regions, and improving international distribution. While Piedmont’s and Tuscany’s top names have led the charge, there’s also significant breadth in the country from Abruzzo, Veneto, and beyond, giving investors multiple entry points into a market with both stability and pockets of spectacular growth.

Lessons from a decade of fine wine investing

Looking back from 2025, one reality stands out: fine wine is not a single market, but a patchwork of micro-markets, each with its own rhythm, risks, and rewards. 

For investors, three lessons are clear:

  1. Selection is everything – Even within a single region, the difference between a modest gain and a market-beating return can be measured in multiples.
  2. Cycles create opportunity – Market peaks and troughs are inevitable; buying quality during a correction often positions you for the next rally.
  3. Diversification pays off – Spreading capital across regions and producer tiers balances the potential for growth with the stability of blue-chip holdings.

As the market sits in a post-2022 cooling phase, parallels with earlier cycles suggest that this may be a moment for strategic accumulation. History shows that the investors who pair patience with informed selection tend to enjoy the richest rewards – sometimes quite literally.