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Part II Bordeaux climate change: adaptive viticulture the way forward?

With vineyard temperatures on the rise in Bordeaux, WineCap spoke with leading Bordeaux estates about how they’re fighting back to protect both wine heritage and future generations.

  • Adaptive viticulture is a widespread method of coping with climate change.
  • Traditional and experimental moderating methods are both in use.
  • High temperatures can be beneficial for recent and, potentially, near-term vintage quality.

Vineyard layout, clones, rootstocks, and varietal proportion: Château Beau-Séjour Bécot, Château Margaux, Château La Conseillante, and Château Pavie

To moderate the impact of climate change, Julien Barthe, co-owner of Beau-Séjour Becot has implemented a radical vineyard layout change to prevent berry burn. ‘The vineyard was formerly planted in an east-west direction. From mid-day to 1 pm, the sun arrived on the west side, right on the berries. This is why we changed the orientation from north to south ­— to avoid the same effect.’

Philippe Bascaules, managing director of Château Margaux has taken the same approach. ‘We decided to change the orientation of our rows,’ he told WineCap.

Barthe also explained that the house is using new clonal selections of Cabernet Franc to help retain the freshness in its Merlot-dominant blends.

Cultivating resilient vines was, similarly, the approach of Marielle Cazaux, the general manager of La Conseillante. ‘Climate change is a big question. We are thinking long term about rootstocks and grape variety.’

Referring to early-ripening Merlot’s vulnerability to climate change, Cazaux stressed the importance of preserving its classic wine profile. ‘We are adapting the rootstock to be more resilient against hydraulic stress and thinking about changing the clones a little bit.’

Olivier Gailly from Château Pavie said that his team had already begun experimenting with climate-resistant proportions of grape varietals at the turn of the century. The house replanted its vineyards with an increased quantity of later-ripening Cabernet Sauvignon and similarly-behaving Cabernet Franc to blend with Merlot. This proportion has helped to maintain wine freshness as temperatures rise. 

Adaptive vineyard management: Château Cheval Blanc, Château Angelus, and Château Calon Segur

Traditional vineyard management techniques such as dense canopy cultivation, durable old vine revival, and biodiversity practices that support the mitigation of climate change have been intensified around Bordeaux since at least the millennium. While some methods have a short time frame, Pierre-Oliver Clouet, winemaker and technical manager at Château Cheval Blanc, which famously voluntarily withdrew from the Saint-Émilion classification system in 2021, spoke about the need for a long-term view.

‘We should adapt today to preserve Cheval Blanc in 20 years,’ he told WineCap. ‘Global warming is going to be a problem because, with two or three more degrees, the wine quality is still going to be good enough, but the identity will not be the same.’

Clouet said the château implements cover crop techniques to protect the soil from high temperatures, enhance soil nutrients and resilience, and to conserve rainwater more efficiently. He has also planted trees to expand cooling shade for vines and is training plants that are heat- and disease-resistant.

Saint-Émilion peer Château Angelus, which also opted out of the appellation’s classification system in 2022, uses a device that assists with hydrating and cooling vines in a region with stringent irrigation rules. President and CEO Stéphanie de Boüard-Rivoal explained: For hail, we have a device that is a balloon that auto launches. It’s blown with helium and contains salt crystals so when it’s swollen by a cloud, it spreads out the salt and allows the ice to melt. Instead of having hail, we have rain,’ she told WineCap.

Cooling heat-stressed plants was also a priority for Vincent Millet, general manager of Château Calon Ségur. He told WineCap how he and his team are refining a mechanism to conserve cooling dampness in vineyard plots: ‘We are setting up specific enclosure systems which can trap and return humidity to the plant.’

Research and experimentation: Château La Dominique

While age-old vineyard methods are adapted to counter the perils of global warming, innovation is a key part of Château La Dominique’s philosophy.

General manager, Gwendoline Lucas, detailed the producer’s efforts in this area. ‘We are very concerned about climate change, so we started working with Bordeaux Sciences Agro years ago to do some research about how we can better manage our vineyard,’ she told WineCap. ‘We are also part of VitiREV, which is the first European fund specialising in viticultural ecological transition. We are like a laboratory testing new solutions from startups. We see a lot of proposals and when we think that something is quite interesting, we try it in our vineyard.’

Beneficial natural environment: Château Pavie, Château Canon, Cos d’Estournel, and Château Margaux

While acknowledging the potential hazards of climate change, several producers told WineCap that they had, to date, avoided any serious consequences of rising temperatures across Bordeaux by dint of resilient terroir. Whether location or soil composition, nature provides a mitigating influence to the heat, ensuring balance and traditional character in yield and wines.

‘We are fortunate to have this exceptional limestone terroir which really keeps a lot of freshness in the wine,’ said Olivier Gailly, commercial director of Saint-Émilion house Château Pavie. ‘Then we have the forests around the château which are very important to keep a bit cooler.’

Soil make-up was also cited by Nicolas Audebert, winemaker and general manager at fellow Saint-Émilion house, Château Canon. Referring to climate change, he said: ‘We see it in berry ripeness every day, but we still have a long way to go before we get into trouble because we are on a fantastic, limestone terroir.’

The water-retaining freshness of limestone guarantees that vines do not suffer severe heat stress, Audebert added, also noting the benefits of micro-practices.

‘There are a lot of fantastic wine producing regions in the world where the climate is warmer than here and they manage,’ he said. ‘I spent ten years in Argentina making wine so I have some experience of how we can evolve our viticulture to protect it. There are thousands of small things we can adapt to keep that elegant, vibrant, precise, style we like.’

Vineyard coolness was also cited by Charles Thomas, commercial director at Cos d’Estournel. ‘We are lucky enough to be in the north part of the Médoc where we have the Gironde River providing freshness to the vineyard.’

Not all Bordeaux producers regard climate change unfavourably and are optimistic that, with a responsive approach, the trials of the decades ahead will be overcome.

‘I think we are just at the beginning,’ Philippe Bascaules of Château Margaux told WineCap. ‘For the last ten years, summer drought and heat have helped us to make even better wine. But, of course, we know that if the temperatures continue to increase, we will be in big trouble because it will not only change the quantity of wine but also the style of the wine we want to produce.’

To this end, the chateau continues to be attentive and flexible in the face of global warming. ‘At least for the next 50 years, I’m quite optimistic that we will find the parameters and the techniques to continue to produce the wine of Château Margaux as it exists today,’ he said. ‘I don’t know about after that because who knows what the temperature will be in Bordeaux in 50 years?’

See also our Bordeaux I Regional Report

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Climate change in Bordeaux: are new varieties the answer?

WineCap spoke with leading Bordeaux estates on the much-discussed possibility of introducing new, heat-resistant grape varietals to this leading wine region to mitigate the impact of global warming.

    • Adaptive viticulture and winemaking were the prevalent answers to coping with climate change.
    • The minority considered old resilient Bordeaux varietals and new grapes.
    • Heritage and current appellation laws are significant.

 Adaptive winemaking: Château Pichon-Baron

Christian Seely, managing director of AXA Millésimes, owner of Château Pichon-Baron was firm that the response to climate change was not the introduction of new cultivars but rather adaptive winemaking.

‘Here at Pichon, 25 years ago, the blend tended to be around 65% Cabernet Sauvignon, 35% Merlot. These days, it’s 80% or more Cabernet Sauvignon and 20% Merlot,’ he told WineCap. ‘It’s not an answer to climate change, but it’s how we’re adapting because we are having more hot, sunny years which enable us to get the Cabernets magnificently ripe. In the old days, when we hadn’t got the Cabernets perfectly ripe, a nice bit of ripe Merlot was a useful element in the blend. It’s still a useful element, but we need less of it.’

This approach also softens the grape alcohol content that has steadily risen along with warmer growing seasons. ‘Merlot grapes here will probably have one degree more of alcohol than Cabernet. If you want to keep your wines under 14% abv, which we do at Pichon, one way of doing that is to increase the proportion of Cabernet Sauvignon.’

Traditional vineyard management and quality over trend: Château Canon-la-Gaffelière and Château Calon Segur

Stéphane von Neipperg, proprietor of Château Canon-la-Gaffelière, was uncompromising on his views about new varieties, preferring skilled, traditional viticulture instead.

‘Increasingly, some technical people are speaking about new varieties for wines. I’m just against it,’ he told WineCap. ‘They’re not proving that the quality is outstanding. They only prove that they don’t need to spray against mildew.’

Von Neipperg stressed the château’s effective practice of copper spraying which complements the composition of its vineyard soils and its cultivation of old vines that display hardiness to warmer summers.

‘We are well known for old vines. We have our own genetics and I think this is much more important than these new varieties.’

Vincent Millet, general manager of Château Calon Ségur has a similar approach to dealing with rising temperatures: massal selection and a decades-long vineyard restructuring plan to be completed in 2035.

‘We recovered old Merlot vines from 1940, Petit Verdot from the 1930s, and Cabernet Franc from the 1970s. We have created our own collection,’ he told WineCap. ‘This collection allows us to preserve a genetic heritage…which allows us to try to resist the increases in temperature.’

Under this climate change-defying scheme, rather than planting new cultivars, the château plans to plant more Cabernet Sauvignon and adjust the quantities of the other traditional Bordeaux varietals.

Potential of resilient Bordeaux varieties: Château Saint Pierre and Château Beychevelle

For co-owner of Château Saint Pierre, Jean Triaud, there is the possibility of regional heat-tolerant grape varieties thriving in warmer climates, making a comeback. He cited Malbec, a varietal that originated and still grows in southwest France and now flourishes in Argentina and Carménère, formerly planted widely in the Médoc and now the flagship black grape of Chile.

‘Those great varieties come from Bordeaux, but finally work much better in other places thanks to the weather. Why not come back?’

However, referring to appellation laws, he acknowledged that the situation was complex. ‘But it’s not so easy because here we don’t decide all the rules,’ he added.

While acknowledging the strict limitations of the appellation system, Philippe Blanc of Château Beychevelle had a similar perspective.

‘The most sensible thing would be to take varieties coming from the south, mainly Spain and Portugal, and see how they adapt here,’ he told WineCap. ‘It’s always this way. You go north and plant Pinot Noir in Sweden or Brittany or Chardonnay in Kent. Maybe it’s good to invest in Brittany or Normandy to make new vineyards in the future.’

Restrictive appellation laws: Château Beychevelle

General manager of Château Beychevelle, Philippe Blanc, is open to the possibility of introducing new heat-resistant grape varieties but recognises that the French appellation system is slow to react and evolve.

‘It takes a lot of time to reach an agreement. If I decide to plant Shiraz, I can make Vin de France, but I can’t make Saint-Julien. So, in terms of value, it’s difficult to do,’ he said. ‘I’ve got no new varieties but, we’ll keep an eye on this and as soon as we’re allowed to plant new grapes, even 2% or 3%, we’ll do it.’

Value of regional heritage and legacy: Château Margaux and Château Troplong Montot

Philippe Bascaules, managing director of Château Margaux said that the estate has the possibility of cultivar changes in mind and a designated block of vineyard for experimentation with new varietals. However, he told WineCap, ‘it’s not decided’.

‘Cabernet Sauvignon is the core of the blend of Château Margaux. The decision to change that is a big one. I’m not considering doing it in the next 50 years.’

Commercial director of Château Troplong Montot, Ferréol du Fou, was more direct about the option to use heat-resistant grapes as a buffer against climate change.

‘Burgundy has Pinot Noir. Bordeaux has Merlot, Cabernet Franc, Cabernet Sauvignon, and Petit Verdot. The solution is to work more in the vineyard, it’s not planting Tempranillo. It’s a plaster, it’s a bandage. We have to think about the next generation,’ he told WineCap. ‘Making Tempranillo in Bordeaux is stupid. I’m a bit harsh, but this is the truth for me.’

See also our Bordeaux I Regional Report

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Q3 2024 Fine Wine Report

The fine wine market continued its downward trend throughout Q3 2024, but there are reasons for cautious optimism. Our Q3 2024 Fine Wine Report highlights the main themes that shaped the market, from regional performance to specific brand successes, and provides an outlook for the remainder of the year.

Executive summary

  • Since October 2022, fine wine prices have been in consistent decline, with a 4% drop on average in Q3 2024.
  • Bordeaux experienced the steepest fall at 4.4%, while Champagne defied the trend with a modest 0.4% increase last quarter.
  • Steady demand for fine wine continues to suggest a price recovery on the horizon.
  • Certain brands have outperformed the market, including Ruinart, Taittinger, and Château de Beaucastel.
  • Krug Vintage Brut 2004 has been the best-performing wine year-to-date, up 21.6%.
  • This year has already seen several broken auction records, including for high-profile Burgundy, which points to continued interest in fine wine.
  • Nine wines received perfect 100-point scores by Jane Anson in her recent Bordeaux 2009 and 2010 vintage retrospective.
  • France’s 2024 harvest is projected to be down 22% compared to last year, and 15% below the five-year average.
  • Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the market continues to present attractive buying opportunities, especially for investors with a long-term vision.

The trends that shaped the fine wine market

Global market recovery driven by rate cuts

In Q3 2024, global markets showed signs of recovery, bolstered by central banks pivoting towards interest rate cuts as inflation began to ease. Following turbulence in early August, stock markets rebounded, setting new records by the end of the quarter. Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England, all shifted their focus from inflation control to stimulating economic growth. The Fed’s September rate cut – the first since 2020 – catalysed a surge in US stocks, and similar moves from other central banks supported this global rebound. Despite lingering concerns about a potential US recession and Japanese market volatility, the overall global outlook improved, with lower rates and better economic conditions presenting growth opportunities.

Fine wine prices fall 4% in Q3

In contrast to the broader economic recovery, the fine wine market remained bearish, with a 4% average drop in prices in Q3. The Liv-ex 100 index saw its steepest fall of the year, down 1.7% in October. Bordeaux led the decline, with a 4.4% drop, although there was a slight uptick in Sauternes prices. Champagne offered a bright spot, rising 0.4% last quarter, with brands like Dom Ruinart Blanc de Blancs and Taittinger posting strong returns (over 30% in the last six months). This mixed performance underscores the complexity of the fine wine market, where price movements can vary widely by region and brand.

New fine wine releases beyond Bordeaux

As always, autumn brought the highly anticipated La Place de Bordeaux campaign, with major New World brands such as Almaviva, Seña, and Penfolds Grange releasing their latest vintages. However, this year’s campaign fell flat, with many new releases priced similarly to last year, despite older vintages showing better value and investment potential due to price corrections. Investors may find more favourable opportunities in back vintages that boast higher critic scores at lower prices.

Regional fine wine performance in Q3

The fine wine market has now returned to its 2021 levels, with prices declining across most regions in Q3 2024, except for Champagne, which recorded a modest 0.4% increase.

Bordeaux experienced the most significant drop, falling 4.4%, driven down primarily by the Second Wine 50 index, which plunged 6.6%, and the Right Bank 50 index, down 4.6%. Many wines from the 2019 vintage, which had previously appreciated in value, have now returned to their original release prices.

Despite this trend, Bordeaux is enjoying steady market demand, taking over a third of the market by value. Moreover, Jane Anson recently revisited the 2009 and 2010 vintages, awarding nine wines 100 points – a move likely to stimulate demand and prices.

When it comes to other regions, Italy and Burgundy also saw a 2% drop in Q3. The Rhône was somewhat more resilient, experiencing a smaller decrease of 0.8%.

The best-performing wines

While the broader market continues to face challenges, certain wines buck the trend, reinforcing the importance of strategic, brand-specific investment decisions.

In Q3 2024, some brands have delivered exceptional returns. The table below showcases the best-performing wines year-to-date, with regions like Tuscany and the Rhône dominating the list.

Leading the pack is Krug 2004, which saw an impressive rise of 21.6%, reflecting the continued strength of Champagne in the investment market. Earlier this year, Antonio Galloni (Vinous) rescored the wine, giving it 98 points. He described it as a ‘gorgeous Champagne that is just beginning to enter its first plateau of maturity’.

Close behind is Domaine du Pégau’s Châteauneuf-du-Pape Cuvée Réservée 2012, which appreciated by 21.2%. Sassicaia 2011 follows with a 21% increase, while its 2015 vintage takes the tenth spot, with a 12.1% rise.

Vega Sicilia Único also features twice with its 2010 and 2011 vintages, demonstrating the increased demand for Spanish wines.

Wines from Bordeaux and the Rhône also make the list, showcasing the diversity of the wine investment market.

The most expensive wines in 2024

The world’s most expensive wines in 2024 are overwhelmingly dominated by Burgundy. At the top of the list is Domaine de la Romanée-Conti’s Romanée-Conti Grand Cru, with an average price of £221,233 per case. Following closely is Domaine d’Auvenay Chevalier-Montrachet Grand Cru, priced at £204,328.

Other notable entries include:

  • Domaine d’Auvenay, Criots-Bâtard-Montrachet Grand Cru at £141,979.
  • Liber Pater, from Bordeaux, priced at £140,009, stands out as the only non-Burgundy wine in the list.
  • Domaine Leroy, Richebourg Grand Cru, valued at £120,007, further establishes Burgundy’s dominance as a highly collectible wine region.

Burgundy producers such as Domaine Leroy and Domaine d’Auvenay appear multiple times on the list. The trend reflects how scarcity, reputation, and critical acclaim are key drivers of value, especially as the market for fine wine becomes increasingly selective in uncertain economic times.

Further entries include:

  • Domaine Leroy, Romanée-Saint-Vivant Grand Cru at £103,844.
  • Domaine d’Auvenay, Mazis-Chambertin Grand Cru at £93,818.
  • Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, Montrachet Grand Cru at £89,529.
  • Domaine Leroy, Corton-Charlemagne Grand Cru at £81,827.
  • Domaine d’Auvenay, Meursault Premier Cru, Les Gouttes d’Or at £80,715.

This dominance by Burgundy reflects its unmatched status in the global wine market, where scarcity and consistent quality continue to command premium prices.

For more information, visit Wine Track.

Fine wine news

The autumn La Place de Bordeaux release campaign

The 2024 La Place de Bordeaux campaign saw the latest releases from Masseto, Solaia, Seña, Penfolds Grange and many more. However, many of these new vintages were released at the same or slightly higher price levels as last year, despite a general market decline, making them less attractive from an investment perspective.

For instance, Masseto 2021 received a perfect 100-point score from Antonio Galloni but was priced at the same level as last year, with back vintages such as 2017, 2018 and 2019 offering better value. Meanwhile, the 100-point Solaia 2021 was released at a 15.7% premium on the 2020 vintage.

From Chile, the 2022 Seña and Viñedo Chadwick were offered at last year’s prices, but older, higher-scoring vintages such as Seña 2019 and Viñedo Chadwick 2021 remain more affordable. Penfolds Grange 2020 saw a small price increase, yet back vintages like the 100-point 2013 offer greater investment potential. Overall, back vintages, with comparable or higher critic scores, often provide better value for investors looking to capitalise on the current market dip.

Historically low yields in France

The 2024 French wine harvest is projected to be one of the smallest in recent history, with regions like Burgundy and Bordeaux experiencing significant declines due to adverse weather conditions.

Burgundy’s output is projected to be down by 25% compared to 2023, while Bordeaux is facing a 10% drop, resulting in the region’s lowest production volume since 2017.

Historically, such scarcity in Burgundy has driven secondary market price increases, as collectors rush to secure rare wines. However, the economic downturn may temper this trend, making selectivity key for investors. In Bordeaux, while smaller harvests often support price stability for premium wines, the broader market conditions may limit price recoveries, especially for mid-tier labels.

Q4 2024 market outlook

The consistent decline in fine wine prices leaves many wondering when the market will stabilise. Despite this downward trend, several factors point toward potential recovery and attractive buying opportunities in Q4.

Firstly, strong demand for select wines persists, particularly for brands that continue to outperform the market. This year has already seen several broken auction records, including for high-profile Burgundy, which points to continued interest in fine wine.

While the market as a whole is facing challenges, strategic investment in the right wines can still yield impressive returns. Investors looking to capitalise on market lows should consider brands which have consistently shown growth despite broader regional declines.

The global economic backdrop also provides reasons for optimism. Central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, have shifted towards interest rate cuts which could stimulate further investment in alternative assets like fine wine.

In terms of regional performance, the ongoing declines in key regions may start to stabilise, as already seen in Champagne. Despite a 4.4% drop in Q3, Bordeaux remains a dominant player with one-third of the market share by value. With critics such as Jane Anson awarding nine perfect 100-point scores to Bordeaux wines from the 2009 and 2010 vintages, we may see renewed interest in classic vintages.

In summary, Q4 2024 offers a unique window of opportunity for long-term investors. With the current decline, strategic investments in high-performing brands and undervalued vintages could offer substantial returns on the road to recovery.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.