Month: September 2024

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What factors affect fine wine prices?

Domaine Romanee de la Conti wine bottles
  • The most important factors that affect fine wine prices are production costs, climate change, market demand, and economic conditions.
  • Market demand is influenced by critic scores, rarity, producer reputation, vintage quality, and geopolitics.
  • Understanding the factors that affect fine wine prices is key to making smart investment decisions.

Fine wine is more than just a luxury product – it is an asset class, a status symbol, and for many, a serious investment. While buyers might be aware of the rising value of sought-after labels, understanding the factors that drive these prices (upwards or downwards) is key to navigating the fine wine market. 

In this article, we explore the primary factors affecting fine wine prices, including production costs, climate change, market demand, and broader economic conditions.

How production costs shape fine wine prices

At the heart of fine wine pricing are the production costs. The making of a high-end wine is a meticulous, labour-intensive process that is inevitably reflected in the price. So are the land costs, which can reach astronomic heights in famous fine wine regions like Burgundy, Napa or Bordeaux. 

For instance, the luxury conglomerate LVMH recently acquired 1.3 hectares of Grand Cru vineyards on the Côte d’Or for 15.5 million euros. The purchase includes half a hectare each in Corton-Charlemagne and Romanée-Saint-Vivant, as well as 0.3 hectares in Corton Bressandes.

Besides land costs, manual labour and vineyard management can further affect release prices. The more human intervention required – whether in the vineyard or the winemaking process – the more costs add up.

Finally, many fine wines are not ready for release for several years after production. Extended ageing means producers incur additional costs, which in turn drives up prices for wines that are stored for longer periods before hitting the market.

The impact of climate change on fine wine pricing

In many traditional wine regions, unpredictable weather patterns, such as frost, heatwaves, and hailstorms, have resulted in lower grape yields. For example, the devastating frost in Burgundy in 2021 significantly reduced production, leading to a scarcity of wines from that vintage. 

When yields are lower, the limited supply pushes prices higher, especially for in-demand producers. This scarcity effect can be seen in top wines like Domaine Leflaive or Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, where a challenging growing season can result in soaring prices.

Additionally, climate change is affecting the style of wines being produced. While some regions like Bordeaux are adapting to these new conditions, climate volatility has added another layer of unpredictability to wine prices. It has also facilitated the emergence of new wine regions, leading to a more competitive landscape.

Market demand and the rise of fine wine investment

Market demand is perhaps the most significant factor affecting fine wine prices. The most sought-after bottles usually rise in value, as quality improves over time and supply diminishes.

Producer reputation, vintage quality and scores from major critics like Robert Parker and Neal Martin play a key role here, informing buying decisions and pricing strategies. A 100-point wine often commands a significant premium to a 99-point wine. When it comes to the Bordeaux First Growths, for instance, the average difference between a 99-point and a 100-point wine is over £350 per case.

Market demand is also shaped by geopolitical factors. The global nature of wine trading platforms means that market sentiment can affect wine prices faster than ever before. Demand from China largely contributed to Bordeaux’s pricing surge in 2011, and today interest is moving towards Burgundy and Champagne.

Economic forces that influence fine wine prices

While the fine wine market generally operates with its own dynamics, macroeconomic factors such as inflation, currency fluctuations, and recessions can all have an impact.  

In times of economic downturn, discretionary spending often decreases, which can lead to short-term drops in wine prices. However, fine wine has historically shown remarkable resilience due to its tangibility, rebounding after economic dips. 

Currency fluctuations also play a role; for instance, a weaker euro might make European wines more attractive to international buyers, spurring demand and increasing prices in markets like the US or Asia.

Changes in trade policies and tariffs can also have an impact. The Trump tariffs on European wines in 2020 temporarily raised the prices of French and Italian wines in the American market. While these tariffs have been reduced, ongoing changes in trade regulations can create volatility in wine pricing, particularly for internationally traded wines.

Understanding price fluctuations within fine wine

Fine wine prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, from the inherent quality of the wine itself to broader market forces and economic conditions. Understanding these factors is key to making informed decisions and maximising returns on investment.

Want to learn more about fine wine investment? Download our free guide.

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Beyond Bordeaux releases: why back vintages offer better value

Seña wine bottles wine cellar
  • This autumn sees the annual beyond Bordeaux campaign via La Place. 
  • Most of the wines have been released at the same price level as last year. 
  • This is not enough to stimulate buyers given the current dip in market prices across all regions. 

This month’s La Place de Bordeaux campaign has seen a mix of notable releases beyond the traditional Bordeaux wines, featuring the latest vintages from esteemed producers like Opus One, Masseto, Solaia, Penfolds, and Viñedo Chadwick. However, as market prices dip across multiple regions, many of these releases have seen limited appeal. The enhanced availability of older vintages at more competitive prices makes back vintages a more attractive investment option.

Super Tuscan releases

The Super Tuscan Masseto 2021 kicked off this autumn’s La Place campaign at the same price as last year’s vintage. It marks one of the last vintages overseen by Alex Heinz, who transitioned to CEO of Château Lascombes in Bordeaux in 2022. 

The wine received a perfect 100-point score from Antonio Galloni (Vinous) who said it was ‘the most exquisite, refined young Masseto’ he had ever tasted. Monica Larner (Wine Advocate), while giving it 95 points, described it as a ‘very rich and elaborate expression’.

However, better value can be found in back vintages such as 2017, 2018, and 2019, where critic scores are more aligned across publications.

Masseto wine prices chart

In contrast, Solaia 2021 from Marchesi Antinori came in at a 15.7% premium over the 2020 vintage, with a recommended price of £3,240 per 12×75. 

Despite strong reviews – 97 points from Larner and a perfect 100 from Galloni – this price positions the 2021 Solaia above several recent vintages. 

Buyers seeking better value might prefer the 2018, 2019, or even the 100-point Solaia 2015, which comes with the added advantage of age.

Solaia wine prices chart

Chile’s iconic wines

Two of Chile’s most iconic wines were also released earlier this month, Seña 2022 and Viñedo Chadwick 2022.

Although Seña 2022 was offered at the same price as last year, it is still the most expensive vintage currently in the market due to a drop in value of the previous vintages. The 2019 and 2018 vintages, for instance, both have higher scores from Wine Advocate and cost less.

Mondavi & Chadwick, Seña wine prices chart

Similarly, Viñedo Chadwick 2022 was released at last year’s price but remains the second most expensive vintage, following the 2015 Joaquín Hidalgo (Vinous) awarded it 98 points, praising its ‘finessed Bordeaux-oriented style with the plush tannins of Maipo’.

From an investment perspective, the 2021 offers a more affordable, higher-scored alternative, while the 2018 and 2019 vintages are also solid options.

Errazuriz Vinedo Chadwick wine prices chart

Other notable releases

Château de Beaucastel Hommage à Jacques Perrin 2022 is another wine released at the same price as last year, which has since fallen in value. This makes it the second most expensive after the 2016. 

It received a range of 96-98 points from Nicolas Greinacher (Vinous), who said it was ‘on track to rank alongside the spectacular 2020’. Still, the 2018, 2017 and 2015 present better value alternatives. 

Beaucastel, Chateauneuf du Pape Hommage J Perrin wine prices chart

With a small increase of 1.3% on last year, Penfolds Grange 2020 was released at £4,740 per 12×75. 

Erin Larkin (Wine Advocate) described it as ‘lighter than the preceding 2019’ and gave it 95 points. It received the same score from Angus Hughson (Vinous) who suggested that it would benefit from a ‘couple more years in the cellar [that] will bring all the pieces together before a two-decade drinking window’.

When it comes to back vintages, the 2012, 2014 and 2015 all look more attractive. The 100-point 2013 vintage is also cheaper and has entered its early drinking window.

Penfolds Grange wine prices chart

Back vintages remain an untapped opportunity

As the latest La Place de Bordeaux campaign reveals, many new releases are being offered at prices that do not necessarily align with current market conditions.

In contrast, back vintages – often with comparable or superior critic scores – can provide better value and greater investment potential. With the market dip creating opportunities for buyers, it is a good time to focus on older, well-regarded vintages that offer both affordability and maturity.

Get in touch to discuss your allocations or to start building your fine wine collection. Schedule a consultation.

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What is a market dip, and how can fine wine investors take advantage?

High end wine label bottles
  • A market dip is a temporary decline in prices, caused by economic or market-specific factors.
  • Buying the dip is advised when the underlying market fundamentals are favourable.
  • This is arguably the best time to invest in fine wine in a decade.

A market dip is a temporary drop in prices. This is often caused by economic or market-specific factors. In the fine wine market, these dips are less frequent and less volatile compared to traditional financial markets like stocks or bonds. While the fine wine market has been bearish three times since the turn of the century, global mainstream markets have experienced many more significant crashes. 

However, when a dip does occur, and provided that the fundamentals are strong, it can present a unique opportunity for buyers. Investors can enter the market, adjust their allocations or expand their portfolios with high-value brands and rare vintages at discounted prices. Sellers may look to liquidate their stock, offering rare and premium wines from regions like Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Champagne at more attractive prices.

Currently, the fine wine market is benefitting buyers. While the temporary drop in prices might raise concerns on the surface, those who adopt a long-term, strategic approach can reap significant rewards by buying the dip.

Buying the dip when the fundamentals are strong

According to Sir John Templeton, the best time to invest is during ‘points of maximum pessimism’. With fine wine indices down over 20% from their 2022 peaks, this moment presents one of the best opportunities to buy in the last decade.

Fine wine fundamentals remain intact: wines improve with age, and become rarer over time as bottles are consumed. The market’s appetite for older vintages is still strong, and regions like Burgundy, Bordeaux and Champagne continue to break pricing records at auction.

Fine wine indices performance 2024

Current macroeconomic environment and its impact

The global economy is currently facing several challenges – rising inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, all of which have contributed to the recent dip in fine wine prices. 

Despite these macroeconomic factors, fine wine remains less volatile than traditional markets. During times of economic uncertainty, fine wine’s tangible nature and intrinsic value have helped it weather storms better than more speculative assets like equities or cryptocurrencies. 

Additionally, the growing demand for luxury goods continues to support the fine wine market. This demand will likely drive the next phase of growth once global economic conditions stabilise.

Historical fine wine market rebounds

Another reason for confidence is that the fine wine market has consistently rebounded after periods of economic downturn. During the 2008 global financial crisis, the Liv-ex 100 index fell by 25% but had risen over 60% by mid-2011. 

20 year performance of Liv-ex 100 and Liv-ex 1000

Similarly, Bordeaux’s peak in 2011 was followed by Burgundy’s rise, showing that demand for fine wine remains strong even if it shifts on a regional basis. This is why diversity is key. 

The market is no longer dominated solely by top Bordeaux, and spreading your allocations across key wines and vintages can balance an investment portfolio and maximise returns.

How to take advantage of the dip in the fine wine market

For investors looking to capitalise on the current market dip, the strategy is clear: buy low and hold for the long term. 

Focus on proven performers: Wines from top regions like Bordeaux, Burgundy, Italy and Champagne have historically demonstrated resilience. Investing in top vintages and estates offers a measure of security.

Take advantage of fear-driven selling: As some sellers look to exit the market prematurely, investors can acquire undervalued wines with strong growth potential.

Diversify your portfolio: Spread your investment across different regions, producers, and vintages to mitigate risk and maximise returns.

Get in touch to discuss your allocations or to start building your fine wine collection. Schedule a consultation.

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What to expect from the 2024 La Place de Bordeaux campaign?

2024 La Place de Bordeaux campaign
  • La Place de Bordeaux’s autumn campaign continues to expand, with new entries from Germany, France and the rest of the world.
  • The network offers producers logistics expertise and knowledge of the world’s fine wine markets.
  • Some of the top brands that enjoy sustained demand every year include Californian cult wines Opus One and Promontory, and the Super Tuscans Solaia and Masseto.

Following a mixed 2023 Bordeaux En Primeur campaign, which saw many châteaux lowering their prices compared to last year, this autumn will see the annual hors Bordeaux La Place campaign.

As the market for Bordeaux narrows, the system, originally designed purely to sell the wines from the region, continues to expand. However, it’s essential to recognise the challenges that lie ahead.

Current market sentiment

The fine wine market is currently navigating through a period of uncertainty. Economic downturns in key markets like China, where Bordeaux sales have plummeted by two-thirds since their peak in 2017, and the looming threat of a recession in the US, have created a cautious environment. This has significantly impacted confidence in the market, with many stakeholders bracing for a potentially attritional campaign this autumn.

Continued expansion of La Place de Bordeaux

For new producers, the benefits of joining the La Place distribution network are manifold. As Areni put it in a recent article, ‘La Place offers fine wine producers something remarkable: a depth and breadth of fine wine expertise, coupled with a fine-grained knowledge of the world’s fine wine markets and plenty of logistics expertise. La Place also offers prestige, making it highly attractive to many of the world’s fine wine producers’.

According to Mathieu Chadronnier, president of Bordeaux négociant CVBG, ‘We will see more wines from beyond Bordeaux come to La Place. That trend is not going anywhere because the fundamental rationale that fine wine is one single category that embraces regions and countries of origin remains.’

This shift is particularly significant in light of the current market conditions. As Bordeaux faces challenges, the inclusion of international wines has become more crucial, providing a broader range of offerings and catering to an increasingly global market.

New entries on La Place

Ernst Loosen, the renowned Mosel-based producer, is entering La Place for the first time this year with a limited-production wine, Weingut Dr. Loosen, Zach. Bergweiler-Prüm Erben.

Meanwhile, Rheingau Riesling producer Schloss Johannisberg is advancing its strategy to expand the global reach of its premium Rieslings. This autumn, they will introduce Schloss Johannisberg Riesling Goldlack and Schloss Johannisberg Riesling Orangelack Kabinett to a broader international audience using the network’s global reach.

Additionally, Maison Georges Vigouroux will release the first Malbec from Cahors – Château de Haute-Serre Grand Malbec 2022 – through La Place de Bordeaux. This marks the first global ‘icon’ wine from the appellation since phylloxera nearly eradicated the grape variety in France almost 200 years ago.

Top brands to watch

The coming weeks will see the release of the latest vintage from some of the hottest brands, including the Super Tuscans Solaia, Masseto and Bibi Graetz, Californian cult wine Opus One joined by estates such as Inglenook, Joseph Phelps and Promontory, the Chilean Almaviva, Viñedo Chadwick and Viña Seña.

From Australia, Wynns will release the 2021 John Riddoch, Cloudburst its Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay and Malbec 2021, Jim Barry ‘The Armagh’ Shiraz 2021, and Penfolds Bin 169 2022.

France will also see the release of the 2022 vintage of Le Petit Cheval Blanc, Y de Yquem and Château de Beaucastel Hommage à Jacques Perrin, Philipponnat Clos des Goisses 2015, and Latour 2009.

The table below shows the performance and price points of some of the top brands released via La Place de Bordeaux every autumn.

La Place brands

Long-term prospects

Although prices for all these brands have fallen in the last year – creating the so called ‘buyer’s market’ – they remain great long term investments. Moreover, the new releases enjoy sustained demand year after year.

The current downturn in the market presents an opportunity for change. This period of uncertainty has led to more informed decision-making, a focus on quality, and a more selective approach to the new releases.

The 2024 La Place de Bordeaux campaign is set to be a dynamic and expansive event, showcasing a diverse array of global wines alongside the region’s traditional offerings. Despite the current challenges, the long-term prospects for La Place are promising, with the potential for significant growth and continued evolution in the years to come.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.