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Cautious optimism for Australian wine amid tariff review

  • Australia and China have agreed to a suspension of their ongoing dispute over the steep tariffs imposed on Australian wine since November 2020.
  • The tariffs had a profound impact on demand and price performance of Australian wine.
  • Australia’s best price performers have risen over 40% in value in the last year.

Australian wine tariffs under review

In a significant shift that could redefine trade relations between Australia and China, the two nations have agreed to a suspension of their ongoing dispute over the steep tariffs imposed on Australian wine since November 2020. This development comes ahead of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s forthcoming trip to Beijing, marking a potential thaw in the trade tensions that have severely impacted Australia’s wine industry.

While the Chinese government has consented to an expedited five-month review of the punitive duties, which have plummeted Australia’s wine exports from over $1 billion to a mere $12 million, there remains a cautious optimism. Despite this progress, industry experts predict that even if the tariffs are promptly revoked, the Australian wine sector, which has undergone substantial restructuring in response to the lost Chinese market, would still require approximately two years to recuperate and effectively redistribute its current surplus.

Impact on Australia’s wine investment market

The Chinese tariffs, ranging from 180% to 200% on Australian wine imports, had a profound impact on Australia’s budding secondary market. The country has historically been the second most important fine wine player from the New World after the U.S., enjoying greater demand than South Africa, Chile or Argentina.

After a record-breaking year of trade in 2020, Australia’s investment market shrank in 2021. The number of different Australian wines traded on Liv-ex declined 32.2% year-on-year, as demand decreased.

Fewer wines from Australia made it into the rankings of the most powerful brands in the world. Australia’s leading label, Penfolds Grange, dropped in the 2021 Power 100 rankings, from fifth in 2020 to 45th place in 2021. In last year’s edition of the rankings, the wine fell further – from 45th to 55th place, while Henschke exited altogether. Part of the reason is that Penfolds has historically been heavily reliant on the Chinese market. In an attempt to rebuilt tariff-hit business, earlier this year Treasury Wine Estates, owner of Penfolds, announced the introduction of its first China-sourced premium wine.

Australian wine price performance

Since the tariff introduction, prices for some of the top wines have dipped, creating pockets of opportunity. For instance, the average price of Henschke Hill of Grace is down 4% in the last year; similarly, Penfolds Bin 707 is down 9%. While their trajectories are different, the long-term growth trend remains, with over 90% rise in the last decade.

Some Australian brands have seen impressive price performance despite the ongoing trade tension. The table below shows the five best performers on Wine Track in the last year, which have risen between 31% and 41% on average. Clarendon Hills Brookman Syrah leads the rankings, with an average price per case of £1,042. Two Hands Aphrodite has been the second-best performer, up 39%.

The cautious optimism for Australian wine will likely affect its secondary market performance. As demand rises, so will prices. It remains to be seen if a potential tariff suspension will bring back the momentum to a region that has quietened down in the last three years but nonetheless remains an important New World representative.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Examining the investment potential of Salon 2013 amid heightened demand

  • Salon Le Mesnil Blanc de Blancs 2013 has enjoyed heightened demand shortly after release.
  • The 2013 offers good value compared to similarly scored back vintages, which come at a significant price premium.
  • Salon has delivered higher returns (71%) than the Champagne 50 index (62.8%) over the last five years.

The latest release from Champagne house Salon has already been met with heightened demand. Salon Le Mesnil Blanc de Blancs 2013 came to the market at the end of September, and featured among the most traded wines on Liv-ex shortly after. Below we examine the reasons behind this increased interest and the wine’s investment potential.

The ‘magnificent’ 2013 Salon release

The 2013 was the first vintage release following two unusual releases: the 2012 which the Champagne house initially said they would not offer, and the 2008 of which only 8,000 magnum bottles were released (about 1/3 of their normal production).

The wine received 99-points from Antonio Galloni (Vinous), who declared it ‘the most powerful, dense young Salon I have ever tasted’. The critic further noted: ‘Champagne of mind-bending complexity, the 2013 possesses tremendous mid-palate intensity and power from the very first taste’.

Meanwhile, the Wine Advocate’s Yohan Castaing awarded the wine 97-points, saying that 2013 is ‘more complex and incisive than the 2002 and exhibits similar power to the 2012 at this early stage’.

In terms of value, the 2013 stands out among other Salon vintages available in the market today. The only higher-scoring scoring wine is the 2008 at nearly twice the price. Other similarly scored back vintages such as the 1996, 1995, and 1990 also come at a significant premium to the 2013.

Salon brand performance

Perhaps the most coveted of all Champagne brands, Salon is certainly one of the rarest. Only around 50,000-60,000 bottles are made in most years, and fewer than 50 vintages in the last 100 years.

Salon is a wine defined by its singularity, representing a single vintage expression from one grape and one village. The wine was originally conceived as a private label for the consumption of its founder Eugène-Aimé Salon at a time when the making of Champagne was characterised by blending.

Salon’s exclusivity has been reflected in its investment performance. The wine has delivered higher returns (71%) than the Champagne 50 index (62.8%) over the last five years.

Even in the current climate that has seen prices fall across the board, Salon has fared better than average, down 7% compared to a 12.9% decrease for the broader index, which includes the likes of Krug and Cristal.

The long-term prospects for a wine as rare and highly regarded as Salon are more than promising. There is significant space for Champagne prices to rise in the medium term, and a wine like Salon is especially well placed to benefit.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Investment opportunities in LVMH Champagnes

  • Recent LVMH Champagne releases offer a combination of high quality and relative value for money.
  • Dom Pérignon 2013 has been the most in-demand wine so far this year.
  • The current market environment has created plenty of Champagne buying opportunities, among which Krug 2006 stands out.

A name synonymous with luxury and quality, Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy’s (LVMH) wines have become mainstays of any serious wine investment portfolio. Owners of iconic brands like Krug, Dom Pérignon, Ruinart, Veuve Clicquot and Ace of Spades, LVMH has set unparalleled standards in Champagne production.

Not only have their wines delivered quality, as affirmed by critic scores, but they have brought greater liquidity to the Champagne market. A common theme uniting some of their recent releases is the outstanding value they offer compared to back vintages.

Dom Pérignon 2013 – the most wanted wine this year

Dom Pérignon 2013 is the latest release from the most in-demand Champagne brand. The wine boasts 95+ points from the Wine Advocate’s William Kelley, who called it ‘a lovely wine, defined by the long, cool growing season’.

The remarkable value it offers – as the most affordable Dom Pérignon vintage in the market today – has led it to become the most traded wine by both value and volume this year. The wine’s price has fallen slightly since release (-7.1%), in line with the recent reconciliation in Champagne prices. The Champagne 50 index has dipped 13.1% year-to-date.

However, the brand’s overall trajectory is upwards, with Dom Pérignon prices rising 64% on average in the last five years, and 133% over the last decade, making it an opportune time to buy.

Latest Krug Grande Cuvée editions

The crowning jewel of LVMH, Champagne house Krug, also introduced its latest Grande Cuvée earlier this year. The 171st edition, blended meticulously from 30 different vintages dating back to 2000, represents the lowest-priced Krug GC.

Magnums of the 168th edition are also new to the market, with the hallowed 2012 as the base vintage. Older releases of such magnums are hard to find and command a hefty premium, once again underlining the value to be had here.

Opportunities in Krug 

The recent decline in Champagne prices has created buying opportunities for some of the top names. The latest Krug vintage, the 2008, has become more affordable after dipping 29.0% year-to-date. The wine received 97-points from Antonio Galloni (Vinous) who described it as a ‘nervy, electrifying Champagne, the likes of which has not emerged from Krug’s cellars since the magical 1996’.

However, the 2006 presents an even better investment opportunity. While it is the lowest-priced Krug vintage, its scores align with pricier alternatives such as 2002. The 2006 boasts 96-points from Neal Martin, 97-points from Galloni and 98-points from Kelley, making its value proposition even more evident.

Krug prices have risen 71% on average in the last five years (see more on Wine Track).

Buyers can find plenty of opportunities in LVMH’s Champagnes. Despite the recent dip in the Champagne market, the long-term trajectory of these illustrious brands indicates a steady and impressive rise. The value on offer in some of the most recent offerings makes them an even more lucrative acquisition.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

 

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La Place 2023: Critics’ verdict and top-scoring wines

  • Major critics have released their ‘Beyond Bordeaux’ reports, accessing the quality and value of this year’s La Place releases.
  • Tom Parker MW stated that there were ‘not as many hits as usual’.
  • Jane Anson awarded three wines 100-points.

As the La Place de Bordeaux campaign takes centre stage in September, major critics have shared their views on this year’s releases, including Jane Anson (Inside Bordeaux) and Tom Parker MW (JancisRobinson.com).

Both have commented on the quality of the wines but also on their pricing strategies and the value to be found. As discussed last week, a recurring theme in the campaign has been the price increases for the new releases, compared to previous vintages. This has done little to invigorate the market for buying at release for investment.

Tom Parker on the campaign’s ‘ambitious pricing’

In his ‘beyond Bordeaux’ assessment, Tom Parker MW expressed his wary view on the campaign’s strategy and pricing. He wrote that ‘the styles and regions are diverse, and the stories risk being lost in such a compressed release timetable’.

He added that ‘given the ambitious pricing for many of these wines, it is hard to see how they can all be sold through successfully’. Indeed, the campaign’s reception so far has been mediocre.

In terms of overall quality, Parker stated that ‘there were some excellent efforts though perhaps not as many hits as usual’.

Regional observations

Delving into individual regions, Parker noted the Californian producers’ split strategy, with ‘some releasing wines from the complicated 2020 vintage, with others choosing instead to offer museum releases and a few choosing to do both’. One such instance was Opus One, which opted for library release of its 2018 and 2019 vintages.

In terms of the Rhône releases, he observed that ‘Hommage à Jacques Perrin was good rather than great, and newly added and renamed Domaine de la Chapelle (formerly Jaboulet’s Hermitage La Chapelle) left a little to be desired in the tricky 2021 vintage’.

For him, ‘Argentina produced two of the most exciting wines’. He awared 18 out of 20 points to Zuccardi’s Finca Canal Uco and 17+/20 for Adrianna Vineyard from Catena Zapata.

Parker also complimented Australian wines which were ‘technically immaculate’ and named Wynn’s John Riddoch ‘a personal favourite’.

His top Italian pick was Masseto (18/20), which he described as ‘almost a guilty pleasure in 2020’ though ‘only for those with the deepest pockets’. Although the wine was released at a 10% premium on last year, the new release still offered value in the context of back vintages.

Jane Anson awards three wines 100-points

Among the releases so far, Jane Anson awarded three wines 100 points – Bibi Graetz Colore 2021, Yjar 2019, and Giaconda Chardonnay 2021. The La Place newcomer Chappellet, Pritchard Hill Cabernet Sauvignon 2019 received a near-perfect score of 99-points from the critic.

Anson drew attention to Sicily as a region that offers both quality and value, saying that ‘Sicilian reds, as ever, offer some of the best value wines not just of the September Releases, but of the wine industry in general’.

She also acknowledged that ‘there’s no doubt that the wider economic stresses globally are both helping and hurting the September Releases’.

Once again, this highlights the importance of correct pricing in a broadening fine wine market.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

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New World releases from the autumn La Place de Bordeaux campaign

  • The La Place de Bordeaux campaign is in full swing, with releases from Chile, Italy, USA, France and more.
  • A recurring theme in the campaign has been the price increases for the new releases, compared to their previous vintages.
  • While La Place remains an exciting global marketplace for New and Old World wines, the ultimate value of the releases should be judged in a broader context.

The La Place de Bordeaux autumn campaign has gathered momentum over the past two weeks, with releases from Chile, Italy, USA, France and more.

The campaign kicked off with Paul Jaboulet Aîné’s Hermitage La Chapelle 2021, along with the re-release of some of its library vintages, namely 2013, 2011 and 2006. Napa Valley’s Opus One also re-released its 2018 and 2019 vintages, which led to heightened demand for the brand. Below we take a look at some of the recent New World releases from the campaign so far, examining their pricing and investment potential.

Seña 2021

The newly released 2021 vintage of Mondavi & Chadwick’s Seña is the highest priced wine across recent vintages from the brand.

Seña 2021 was released at €90 per bottle ex-négociant, up 5.9% on the 2020. The wine came with a recommended retail price of £1,344 per 12×75, representing a 30.6% increase on last year.

The 2021 Seña received 98+ points from The Wine Advocate’s Luis Gutiérrez, who described it as ‘one of the finest vintages’. Meanwhile, Joaquín Hidalgo (Vinous) gave it 96-points and said that ‘it will grow in the bottle’.

Other more attractively priced but similarly scored vintages include 2019 and 2018. Over the last ten years, Seña prices have increased 90% on average.

Almaviva 2021

Another release from Chile, Almaviva 2021, was offered via La Place at €122 per bottle ex-négociant, up 5.2% on the 2020. The wine was released internationally for £1,448 per 12×75. It received 96+ points from Luis Gutiérrez, and another 96-points from Joaquín Hidalgo, who praised its ‘enticing nose’ and ‘velvet texture’.

However, some back vintages such as the 2020, 2019 and 2018 offer better value. Our Almaviva index has recorded positive performance both in the short and the long term. Over five years, prices have risen 41%, and over ten – 147%.

Nicolás Catena Zapata 2020

The Argentinian wine Nicolás Catena Zapata 2020 was released at €53.30 per bottle ex-négociant, up 1.5% on the 2019. It has been offered internationally at £720 per 12×75, down 1.6% on the 2019’s opening price.

It received 95-points from Gutiérrez and 96-points from Hidalgo, who observed that this ‘meticulously crafted red achieves perfect balance in a warm vintage’. However, there are plenty of good value buying opportunities in back vintages, notably 2019, 2018 and 2016.

Nicolás Catena Zapata has enjoyed a positive performance over the last five (33%) and ten years (104%).

A recurring theme in the campaign has been the price increases for the new releases, compared to their previous vintages. Similar to the spring Bordeaux 2022 campaign, often back vintages available at a discount hold better investment potential. While La Place continues to showcase the diversity of fine wine, and remains an exciting global marketplace for New and Old World wines, the ultimate value of the releases should be judged in a broader context.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

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Four key market trends from the 2023 Liv-ex Classification

  • The fine wine market is diversifying, with Argentina and Switzerland making new entries in the 2023 Liv-ex Classification.
  • Bordeaux’s influence is waning, now accounting for less than 30% of wines in the classification, while other regions like Champagne rise in prominence.
  • Internal shifts in Burgundy indicate changing buying preferences, driven by the search for value and stock.

The Liv-ex Classification is a ranking of the world’s leading fine wine labels, based solely on their price. The classification takes into account minimum levels of activity and number of vintages traded over one year to present a more accurate picture of the market today. Like the 1855 Bordeaux Classification, the wines are divided into five tiers (price bands).

The 2023 edition featured 296 wines from nine countries. It presented a broad overview of the state of the secondary market – what is trading, and at what price levels. As the market continues to evolve, we break down four key trends from the 2023 Liv-ex classification.

Continued expansion in the world of fine wine

While the number of wines that qualified for inclusion in the 2023 rankings was lower than in the previous 2021 edition (349) due to changes in the methodology, the fine wine investment market has continued to diversify.

Argentina re-entered the rankings with five wines compared to having just one in 2019. Switzerland also joined the classification for the first time with Gantenbein Pinot Noir. Meanwhile, Spain and Chile saw 40% and 100% respective increases in the number of wines entering.

Regional diversity was particularly noticeable in the second-lowest priced 4th tier (£456-£637 per 12×75), which featured wines from France (24), Italy (16), Portugal (3), Australia (2), Spain (1), the USA (1), and Argentina (1).

Bordeaux among global competitors

It is no secret that Bordeaux’s dominance in the fine wine investment market has been fading since its glory days in 2009-2010. The continued broadening of the market has meant that the region has become one of many players, accounting for under 30% of the wines in the 2023 classification.

This has been further aided by its mediocre price performance relative to other regions. The Bordeaux 500 index has risen just 2.9% over the last two years, compared to a 19% move for its parental Liv-ex 1000 index, and a 36.7% increase for Champagne, which has been the best performer. All considered, Liv-ex wrote that ‘this pattern may well continue in future editions’ as new entrants challenge Bordeaux’s monopoly.

While Bordeaux’s influence wanes, other regions like Champagne are capturing the limelight.

The stellar rise of Champagne prices

Champagne has experienced a significant price surge in recent years, which has been reflected in the global rankings.

The majority of Champagnes (10) in the classification entered the first tier – wines priced above £3,641 per 12×75. The remaining 12 were split between tier 2 (£1,002-£3,640) and tier 3 (£638-£1,001). There were no Champagnes in tiers 4 and 5 (wines below £1,000 per case).

The most expensive Champagne was Jacques Selosse Millésime, with an average trade price of £32,516 per case, followed by Krug’s Clos d’Ambonnay (£30,426) and Clos du Mesnil (£17,509). The latter has risen 105% in value over the last five years.

On average, Champagne prices are up 62.8% during this time. They peaked in October 2022, following a year and a half of steady ascent. Since then, the Liv-ex Champagne 50 index has entered a corrective phase – but not significant enough to change the region’s trajectory. Sustained demand has been further buoying its performance.

Internal reshuffling in Burgundy

Burgundy, home to the most expensive wines in the rankings, has been undergoing an internal shift. New entrants have replaced many of the labels in previous editions, signalling changes in buying preferences.

Heightened demand for the region in 2022 led buyers to explore different wines within Burgundy, seeking both value and stock availability. Some of the new entrants in the 2023 classification include Prieuré Roch Ladoix Le Clou Rouge, Domaine Louis Jadot Gevrey-Chambertin Premier Cru Clos Saint-Jacques and Domaine Trapet Père et Fils Latricières-Chambertin Grand Cru.

Interestingly, while these new labels have entered the ranking, they seem to have replaced older, perhaps less active, Burgundy labels. Indeed, the overall proportion of Burgundy wines in the classification has remained steady, even as specific labels fall in and out of favour.

As new players emerge and existing ones adapt, one thing is clear: the fine wine market will continue to diversify and evolve, promising a fascinating future for everyone involved.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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The brands to watch in the 2023 autumn La Place de Bordeaux campaign

  • La Place de Bordeaux is a three-tier global wine distribution system with origins stretching back 800 years.
  • The autumn La Place de Bordeaux campaign sees the release of over 100 different wines from around the world.
  • Discover the brands released via La Place that have made the biggest gains over the past decade.

La Place de Bordeaux is a global wine distribution system that originated 800 years ago in France. The network was originally a hub used just for Bordeaux’s finest wines, where the château would sell to négociants who then sell to merchants.

In recent years, the system has considerably expanded its operations. Other than the spring Bordeaux En Primeur campaign, today La Place releases wines from other parts of the world in the autumn.

Over 100 different wines from Argentina, Australia, the USA, New Zealand, Austria, China, Italy, Spain, South Africa, Uruguay and French wines from Champagne and the Rhône have joined the marketplace since the first non-Bordeaux release of the Chilean brand Almaviva in 1998.

What is driving the La Place expansion?

By selling through La Place, producers have the opportunity to build a global following for their brands, benefitting from the négociants’ extensive reach and expertise in promoting and allocating wines to different markets. Meanwhile, this process guarantees the wines’ provenance, reduces risk, and effectively manages supply and demand.

Négociants also benefit from the expansion of the system beyond Bordeaux by diversifying their revenue streams and reducing their dependency on the châteaux. This is especially true in recent years, which have seen a declining sentiment for buying Bordeaux En Primeur (for more, see our En Primeur Report: Bordeaux 2022 – Unfulfilled Potential).

The transformation of La Place de Bordeaux also reflects the shift in broadening buying patterns in the fine wine investment market.

La Place brands to watch

This autumn will see the release of close to 120 wines from around the world through La Place de Bordeaux.

Some of the most anticipated releases each year include the Super Tuscans Solaia, Masseto and Bibi Graetz, Californian cult wine Opus One joined by estates such as Inglenook, Joseph Phelps and Promontory, the Chilean Almaviva, Vinedo Chadwick and Viña Seña.

Australian wine, which has faced challenges due to the ongoing Chinese tariffs in recent years, has also been aided by the network, with brands such as Penfolds and Jim Barry making waves.

La Place brands

*Explore the performance of different wines on Wine Track, our comprehensive fine wine index that enables you to identify investment grade wines, spot trends and wine investment opportunities.

The table above shows some of the best-performing wines released via La Place over the past decade. These wines, available at various price points, have delivered an all-round positive performance over the past five and ten years.

Rothschild & Concha Y Toro’s Almaviva has seen the most impressive price performance over the last decade, up 132%. Almaviva prices tend to rise with age, and the highly anticipated 2021 vintage is expected to be among the first releases of this autumn’s campaign.

In conclusion, the network’s continually broadening selection showcases its ability to adapt and thrive in a fluid market, acting simultaneously as an indicator of shifting consumer preferences and investment opportunities. As négociants broaden their range and producers tap into this distribution channel with global reach, the impact is poised to resonate well beyond the borders of Bordeaux.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

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Italian fine wine shows resilience amid market corrections

  • Italian fine wine has demonstrated resilience during the market’s latest corrective phase.
  • Piedmont and Tuscany have shaped the Italian fine wine market in complementary ways.
  • In the last year, Bibi Graetz Testamatta has been the best performing brand from Tuscany, up 93%, while Marchesi di Barolo Riserva has led the way in Piedmont, up 128%.

Italy has been a beacon of stability during the fine wine market’s latest corrective phase, which has seen prices fall 7.5% over the last year. The Italy 100 index has dipped just 0.4% during this time, but many of its top wine brands have continued to make considerable gains.

Italy’s stability is more than just a short-term trend; its long-term performance has been characterised by low volatility and steady returns. Its index has risen 286% in value over the last two decades, driven by growing demand for Italian fine wine, and quality improvements.

Indeed, the top wines of Piedmont and Tuscany compare favourably to Burgundy and Bordeaux in terms of critic scores, yet prices are often lower. Italy entices buyers with lower-cost access into the fine wine market, and the diversity of its offerings. On average, one can get a case of the top Super Tuscans (Tignanello, Sassicaia, Ornellaia) for £2,129; the First Growths (Mouton Rothschild, Haut-Brion and Margaux) cost more than double.

The complementary performance of Piedmont and Tuscany

Two major regions have played pivotal roles in shaping the Italian fine wine market in complementary ways: Piedmont and Tuscany.

Piedmont’s top wines, chiefly made from the native Nebbiolo grape, are produced in limited quantities, with rarity and exclusivity driving demand and prices. The dynamics behind the region’s performance evoke comparisons with Burgundy (and its signature Pinot Noir), where scarcity intensifies the allure. Historically, Piedmont has been the chief driver behind Italy’s rising prices.

Meanwhile, Tuscany has greatly contributed to cementing Italy’s place on the global fine wine stage, and its increasing market share. The brand strength of the Super Tuscans, combined with high quality, greater volumes and solid liquidity, have given the Italian market a significant boost.

The best performing brands in the last year

Piedmont

*Explore the performance of different wines on Wine Track, our comprehensive fine wine index that enables you to identify investment grade wines, spot trends and wine investment opportunities.

Marchesi di Barolo Barolo Riserva leads the way among Piedmont’s biggest risers, up an impressive 128% in the last year. However, the rest of the wines have made gains between 39% and 47%.

Tuscany

From Tuscany, Bibi Graetz Testamatta has seen the biggest rise in value in the last year, up 93%. The wine has an attractive point of entry, with an average case price of £1,530. Some of its best value vintages include 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2016. The 2021 vintage is expected to be released next month, as part of this autumn’s La Place de Bordeaux campaign.

The rest of Tuscany’s best performers have risen between 40% and 67%, with Antinori’s Guado al Tasso at the higher price end and Montevertine Rosso being the lowest priced.

The significant growth observed in individual brands from both regions accentuates Italy’s investment potential. Despite the recent bearish trend in the market, Italy has continued to deliver and attract greater demand.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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2023 harvest forecasts for France and Italy: a balancing act

Harvest
  • France’s 2023 wine harvest projects between 44-47 million hectolitres, benefiting from potentially strong yields in Champagne and Burgundy.
  • Italy anticipates up to 14% reduction in its 2023 harvest due to extreme weather, marking it among its smallest harvests.
  • Historical trends showcase climatic vulnerabilities, emphasising the need for sustainable viticulture practices.

As harvest time approaches, we take a look at forecasts for the 2023 vintage in France and Italy. While France appears to be set for a stable year – in line with the five-year average, Italy’s harvest might shrink as a result of extreme weather, as climate change continues to leave its mark.

French wine regions face diverse conditions

According to the French agriculture ministry, France’s wine harvest in 2023 looks promising, with estimates suggesting a national production between 44 million and 47 million hectolitres. This figure nudges slightly ahead of the previous year’s 45.4 million hectolitres. One reason for optimism is the performance in regions like Champagne and Burgundy, which is expected to offset challenges in Bordeaux.

Indeed, Bordeaux has not had it easy. Consecutive thunderstorms, high temperatures, and downy mildew have plagued the region. Notably, Gironde’s chamber of agriculture reported that a whopping 90% of vines have been affected by downy mildew. Languedoc and Roussillon have also been suffering from persistent drought.

Meanwhile, Champagne and Burgundy are set for an above-average harvest. Champagne has successfully averted frost and hail damage and diseases have been contained. Similarly, Burgundy looks poised for grape production higher than the five-year average. The situation in neighbouring Beaujolais is also looking better than last year.

If projections hold, France may place as Europe’s largest wine producer in 2023, especially given the challenging outlook for Italy.

Italy’s climate woes

Italy is staring at a potentially reduced harvest in 2023. From searing heatwaves to devastating floods, the nation’s vintners have confronted multiple challenges. Extreme weather events could result in a harvest that is up to 14% smaller than in 2022. If this forecast proves accurate, 2023 could rank with years like 1948, 2007, and 2017 as one of Italy’s smallest harvests on record.

However, while the national outlook seems daunting, the situation varies by region. The north, including areas like Piedmont, Lombardy, and Veneto, has remained relatively stable despite recent fierce hailstorms. By contrast, southern and central Italy might see significant drops in production, with Sicily in particularly struggling with wildfires, heat, and mildew. Still, the Assovini Sicilia wine association noted that grape quality remains intact for 2023.

Historical context

France and Italy have witnessed harvest highs and lows over the decades. Historically, France’s most significant harvest was in 2004 with a record 58.3 million hectolitres. In contrast, 2017 saw a decline of almost 20% due to weather adversities.

Italy’s bumper harvest year was 1982, with a record production of 65 million hectolitres. The country’s most challenging years have been spaced apart, with significant lows in 1948, 2007, and potentially 2023.

In conclusion, the 2023 harvest projections for France and Italy offer a revealing snapshot into the challenges and opportunities presented by the ever-shifting climate. While France gears up for a potentially favorable yield, owing largely to robust performances in regions like Champagne and Burgundy, Italy grapples with the stark realities of climate change, which threatens to render 2023 one of its leanest harvests. These trends not only highlight the adaptability of the wine industry but also underscore the urgent need for sustainable practices and proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of adverse weather patterns on viticulture. As the historical data indicates, while wine-producing regions have faced fluctuations in the past, the growing unpredictability of climate patterns demands heightened vigilance and innovation in the realm of winemaking.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

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The best-performing wines in H1 2023

H1 2023 - Château Climens
H1 2023 - Château Climens
  • The fine wine market softened in H1 2023 amid a complex economic landscape, creating opportunities for savvy investors to purchase well-priced stock.
  • The 2022 Bordeaux En Primeur campaign stimulated demand for older Bordeaux vintages, which in turn pushed their prices.
  • Sweet Bordeaux dominated the best-performing wines in H1 2023, with Château Climens 2014 claiming the top spot.

Market overview

The first half of 2023 brought a mixed bag of developments for the fine wine market, with interesting shifts underway. Amid a complex economic landscape, the market softened, creating opportunities for savvy investors to purchase high-quality stock at appealing prices. Major fine wine indices experienced a minor slump when calculated in sterling but remained steady in other currencies.

Meanwhile, the 2022 Bordeaux En Primeur campaign generated excitement among critics and buyers due to the high quality of the wines, yet its pricing underlined the value that back vintages offer. Indeed the majority of the best-performing wines so far this year have been older Bordeaux vintages, with two exceptions.

The top performers so far this year

While major fine wine indices have experienced a slowdown, demand remains robust and some wines have continued to overdeliver. The table below shows the best performers in H1 2023, which have all risen between 18% and 78%.

Five out of the top ten spots, including the prime position, have gone to Château Climens. Much of this stellar growth happened in the last quarter. Back vintages saw increased demand, following the 2022 En Primeur release, which was offered with a 139.4% increase on the 2016. Château Climens has also been one of the best-performing Bordeaux brands so far this year, according to Wine Track, rising 36%.

Another wine from Barsac, Château Coutet 2014, has also risen an impressive 32.8% in value over the past six months, cementing the prevalence of sweet Bordeaux among the biggest risers. It seems that a category often overlooked has come to the investment spotlight in 2023, replacing the stars of 2022 – Burgundy and Champagne.

The sixth and seventh spots went to red Bordeaux, with Château Palmer 2013, up 27.4%, and Le Clarence de Haut-Brion 2015, up 24.1%.

The exceptions to the Bordeaux-themed half were Giacomo Conterno Barolo Monfortino Riserva 2001 (22.8%) and Joseph Drouhin Montrachet Grand Cru Marquis de Laguiche 2011 (18.2%).

To find out more about the most recent developments in the fine wine market, download our Q2 2023 wine investment report.

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