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Report – Opportunities in uncertainty: the 2024 fine wine market and 2025 outlook

Executive summary

  • Q4 was marked by political developments, changing economic policies, and geopolitical events, including the re-election of President Trump.
  • The strengthened US dollar boosted fine wine demand across the pond.
  • Fine wine prices fell 11% across major regions in 2024, reflecting a continued market correction. 
  • Italy was the most resilient fine wine region, while Burgundy experienced the biggest adjustment.
  • Rhône wines dominated the list of the best performing wines in 2024, with Domaine Pegau Cuvée Réservée Rouge 2013 leading (80.5%).
  • Older vintages (2010-2014) performed well, reflecting the market’s preference for mature, proven wines, while new releases struggled when not priced correctly.
  • Optimism for market recovery is focused on premium regions like Piedmont, Champagne, and Burgundy.
  • Economic uncertainties and mixed performance in Bordeaux are expected to persist, but continued interest in fine wine signals resilience and potential for long-term growth.

Q4 in context: political and economic drivers

It has been an eventful quarter, marked by political developments, changing economic policies, and geopolitical events. The re-election of President Donald Trump in November prompted a rapid response in global markets. US equities reacted positively to the outcome, as investors anticipated business-friendly policies and potential fiscal stimulus, particularly benefiting sectors like manufacturing and technology. However, concerns over increased tariffs created uncertainties for multinational corporations.

Rising US Treasury yields, driven by expectations of future interest rate hikes, attracted capital inflows, strengthening the US dollar. While this reinforced investor confidence in U.S. economic policies, it also raised concerns about higher borrowing costs and their potential drag on economic growth. Emerging market currencies faced downward pressure as fears of US trade measures and capital outflows grew.

In late November, a US-France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, reducing immediate geopolitical risks after over a year of hostilities. Despite the agreement, markets remained cautious, keeping a close watch for potential disruptions to the fragile stability.

Markets in 2024: the year that was

Bitcoin made headlines this month by surpassing the $100,000 mark for the first time, peaking at an all-time high of $104,000 on Coinbase. The surge was fuelled by growing investor optimism around a favourable regulatory environment under President-elect Donald Trump, who has signalled support for cryptocurrencies through key appointments and policy proposals.

Equity markets have also enjoyed a strong year, bolstered by a resilient US economy and easing inflation pressures. These conditions have allowed central banks to pause or slow rate hikes. Strong corporate earnings, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, have further propelled the S&P 500’s stellar performance.

The global energy market in 2024 has experienced notable fluctuations. Concerns over a potential global economic slowdown, driven by weak demand from China and other developed economies, have weighed on crude oil prices. While OPEC’s production cuts have provided some price support, they have not been sufficient to fully offset the impact of declining demand.

Meanwhile, gold has reaffirmed its role as a safe-haven asset in 2024. Persistent geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and financial market volatility have driven demand for the precious metal, supporting its strong performance throughout the year.

Market performance in 2024

*Current values: 06/12/2024

The fine wine market in 2024

The fine wine market in 2024 continued its downward trajectory from 2023, with broad declines across major indices. The Liv-ex 100 has fallen 9.2% year-to-date, while the Liv-ex 50, which tracks First Growth Bordeaux, is down 10.9%.

Despite these overall declines, the market showcased notable regional disparities and emerging opportunities. Examined at more length in the following section, Italy has been a beacon of resilience, while ‘overheated’ regions like Burgundy have readjusted.    

Notably, prices did not fall because of lower demand for fine wine. Market activity remained high, with the number of fine wine trades in 2024 surpassing 2023 by 7.9%. 

Regional fine wine performance

Regional fine wine indices performance in 2024

The fine wine market saw mixed performances as the year drew to a close. Italy stood out as the most resilient region, with prices falling 6% – a fraction of the 11.1% average decline in the Liv-ex 1000 index. High-scoring releases buoyed Italy’s secondary market, while diverse offerings such as Antinori Brunello di Montalcino Vigna Ferrovia Riserva (38%) underscored the country’s stability and value. Italy’s growing influence was evident in the 2024 Power 100 rankings, where it claimed 22 spots – nine more than last year – closing the gap on Burgundy and Bordeaux in terms of investor interest and price performance.

Burgundy has faced the greatest readjustment among all regions, with prices declining by 14.4% year-to-date. This correction followed years of meteoric growth and reflects a market adjustment as prices recalibrate. The decline has created opportunities for investors to acquire rare and prestigious labels at more accessible prices. Burgundy’s reputation as a cornerstone of fine wine investment remains intact despite this year’s setbacks, with long-term demand likely to persist.

Champagne also experienced a challenging year, with prices falling 9.8%. However, the region showed signs of stabilisation toward the end of the year. Older vintages led this recovery, with labels such as Taittinger Brut Millesime up 29%, signalling enduring interest in high-quality, aged Champagne. 

Bordeaux, the largest and most liquid fine wine region, saw an 11.3% decline. Liquidity remains Bordeaux’s strength, but it no longer guarantees safety in today’s market. Recent vintages in particular have struggled, with many trading below their release prices. 

California wines fell 8.6% but showed positive momentum in November. The region’s growing presence in the fine wine investment space has been driven by the rising popularity of brands like Dominus, Joseph Phelps, and Promontory.

Spanish wine also benefitted from surging US demand, with Vega Sicilia Unico taking the top spot as the most powerful fine wine brand in 2024. Two other Spanish wines also made the rankings – Dominio de Pingus and R. Lopez de Heredia – a testament to Spain’s growing investment potential.  

The best-performing wines in 2024

Top-performing wines of 2024

The Rhône dominated this year’s top-performing wines, claiming four of the ten spots on the list. Domaine de Pegau Cuvee Reservee Rouge 2013 led the charge with an impressive 80.5% rise. Other regional standouts, including Clos des Papes Châteauneuf-du-Pape Rouge 2014 (61.2%) and Château de Beaucastel Rouge 2013 (31.1%), highlighted the enduring demand for Châteauneuf-du-Pape from highly rated, older vintages.

Beyond the Rhône, Spain’s Vega Sicilia Unico 2010 (24.9%) showcased the strength of Ribera del Duero as a rising force in the wine investment market. Vega Sicilia also ranked as the most powerful wine brand in the 2024 Power 100 rankings. 

Bordeaux and Sauternes also featured. Château Rieussec took two spots with its 2015 (10%) and 2014 (7.2%) vintages. Meanwhile, Ducru-Beaucaillou 2013 (19.2%) and Château L’Eglise-Clinet 2012 (3.9%) showed that Bordeaux’s established names have continued to attract investment interest where there has been value on offer.

A clear trend this year was the strong performance of older vintages, with wines from 2010 to 2014 dominating the list. Only two ‘younger’ vintages, 2015 and 2019, appeared on the list and no new releases. This aligns with a broader preference for mature wines, which offer proven track records and immediate drinkability.

2024 takeaways

The market downturn has presented opportunities to acquire premium wines at more accessible price points, offering a chance to diversify portfolios with an asset known for its historically strong long-term performance.

For another year, Bordeaux En Primeur struggled to attract significant interest with the release of the 2023 vintage, especially for wines where older proven vintages offered better value. Economic uncertainty further highlighted the appeal of the classics. Iconic Bordeaux vintages – such as 2000, 2005, and 2009 – and Italy’s Super Tuscans stood out as stable investment options. These wines offered a combination of historical performance and consistent demand, reinforcing their status as cornerstone assets in fine wine portfolios.

Declining prices also brought rare and prestigious wines back into circulation, offering investors the chance to secure assets that were previously inaccessible. This period allowed for strategic acquisitions of iconic labels at attractive price points, setting the stage for potential long-term gains as the market stabilises.

Below the surface of the downturn, 2024 presented great buying opportunities, making it a pivotal year for investors, whether looking to enter the market or enhance their existing portfolios.  

2025 market outlook

The 2025 fine wine market outlook is cautiously positive, driven by optimism for premium regions such as Piedmont, Champagne, and Burgundy. Insights from the 2024 Golden Vines Report show that 64% of industry professionals anticipate market growth, particularly for high-end Italian wines like Barolo and Barbaresco, which are increasingly viewed as alternatives to Burgundy.

Key trends include rising demand for sustainability and terroir-driven wines. According to the report, Piedmont (20%) leads in growth potential, followed by Champagne (17%), Burgundy (14%) and Tuscany (12%), while Bordeaux faces mixed prospects, with 27% of the respondents expecting further declines. Challenges like economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties persist but continued strong fine wine demand signals resilience in the market.

Fine wine remains the most popular collectible celebrated for its diversification benefits, sustainability and stability through different market environments.

Stay tuned for our 2025 Wealth Report, which will examine wealth and investment managers’ views and sentiments towards fine wine early next year.

See also – WineCap Wealth Report 2024: UK Edition

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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What is a market dip, and how can fine wine investors take advantage?

  • A market dip is a temporary decline in prices, caused by economic or market-specific factors.
  • Buying the dip is advised when the underlying market fundamentals are favourable.
  • This is arguably the best time to invest in fine wine in a decade.

A market dip is a temporary drop in prices. This is often caused by economic or market-specific factors. In the fine wine market, these dips are less frequent and less volatile compared to traditional financial markets like stocks or bonds. While the fine wine market has been bearish three times since the turn of the century, global mainstream markets have experienced many more significant crashes. 

However, when a dip does occur, and provided that the fundamentals are strong, it can present a unique opportunity for buyers. Investors can enter the market, adjust their allocations or expand their portfolios with high-value brands and rare vintages at discounted prices. Sellers may look to liquidate their stock, offering rare and premium wines from regions like Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Champagne at more attractive prices.

Currently, the fine wine market is benefitting buyers. While the temporary drop in prices might raise concerns on the surface, those who adopt a long-term, strategic approach can reap significant rewards by buying the dip.

Buying the dip when the fundamentals are strong

According to Sir John Templeton, the best time to invest is during ‘points of maximum pessimism’. With fine wine indices down over 20% from their 2022 peaks, this moment presents one of the best opportunities to buy in the last decade.

Fine wine fundamentals remain intact: wines improve with age, and become rarer over time as bottles are consumed. The market’s appetite for older vintages is still strong, and regions like Burgundy, Bordeaux and Champagne continue to break pricing records at auction.

Fine wine indices performance 2024

Current macroeconomic environment and its impact

The global economy is currently facing several challenges – rising inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, all of which have contributed to the recent dip in fine wine prices. 

Despite these macroeconomic factors, fine wine remains less volatile than traditional markets. During times of economic uncertainty, fine wine’s tangible nature and intrinsic value have helped it weather storms better than more speculative assets like equities or cryptocurrencies. 

Additionally, the growing demand for luxury goods continues to support the fine wine market. This demand will likely drive the next phase of growth once global economic conditions stabilise.

Historical fine wine market rebounds

Another reason for confidence is that the fine wine market has consistently rebounded after periods of economic downturn. During the 2008 global financial crisis, the Liv-ex 100 index fell by 25% but had risen over 60% by mid-2011. 

20 year performance of Liv-ex 100 and Liv-ex 1000

Similarly, Bordeaux’s peak in 2011 was followed by Burgundy’s rise, showing that demand for fine wine remains strong even if it shifts on a regional basis. This is why diversity is key. 

The market is no longer dominated solely by top Bordeaux, and spreading your allocations across key wines and vintages can balance an investment portfolio and maximise returns.

How to take advantage of the dip in the fine wine market

For investors looking to capitalise on the current market dip, the strategy is clear: buy low and hold for the long term. 

Focus on proven performers: Wines from top regions like Bordeaux, Burgundy, Italy and Champagne have historically demonstrated resilience. Investing in top vintages and estates offers a measure of security.

Take advantage of fear-driven selling: As some sellers look to exit the market prematurely, investors can acquire undervalued wines with strong growth potential.

Diversify your portfolio: Spread your investment across different regions, producers, and vintages to mitigate risk and maximise returns.

Get in touch to discuss your allocations or to start building your fine wine collection. Schedule a consultation.

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5 Ways Fine Wine Investments are Good for the Environment

When it comes to fine wine investments, the environment probably isn’t the first thing that crosses people’s minds. We’ve taken a closer look at why, we believe, it should be reconsidered as an Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) or Socially Responsible investment.

With ESG, alcohol is usually one of the first asset classes to get screened out[1]. Interestingly, this could stem from the Quaker movement, who first started the trend of ethical investing about three hundred years before it became mainstream[2]. This famously teetotal religion encouraged investing, but only if it toed the holy line. In the late twentieth century, other investments came under fire too, especially those which profit from war. Today, it’s generally accepted that investments in alcohol, pornography, gambling, and weaponry cannot be “ESG”[3].

But is this approach a little sour? Especially when you can find the likes of British American Tobacco, McDonalds, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, British Petroleum, Phillip Morris, ExxonMobil and more featured on popular ESG funds[4]? How could fine wine possibly be worse for the environment than junk food or oil companies? And is it time to reset the dial and realise the true environmental potential of this asset?

Here are five sobering reasons why fine wine should be reconsidered as an ESG investment: 

1. Vineyards are a carbon sink

A rugby-pitched-sized area of vineyard soaks up a respectable 2.84 tonnes of carbon every year[5]. For context, three of these plots would balance out what the average Brit emits annually[6]. Unlike most other ESG investments today, this off-setting is a natural and intrinsic part of the business model of wine-making. It’s not an ‘extra’. This is no ESG stunt or short-term project.

Supporting the healthy growth of plants is essential to the production of winemaking. There are precious few investments which literally grow on trees and soak up carbon as part of their day-to-day functioning.

2.   Soil quality can be enhanced through fine wine

What’s more, vineyard managers who mulch or compost their old or unused vines (rather than burn them) can save an additional 4.5 tonnes of carbon[7]. As well as helping to mitigate climate change, this also raises the quality of the soil, which is great news for local ecosystems too.

Soil degradation is hot on the radar for concerned environmentalists. Around a third of the planet’s land is damaged from intensive farming[8]. And, alarmingly, fertile soil is being lost at a rate of 24 billion tonnes a year[9]. Sustainable vineyards provide a welcome respite against this concerning environmental damage.

3.   Organic wine production supports pollinators

Vineyards can also offer welcome sources of nectar for pollinators, like bees. These tiny creatures are vital for our planet and well-being. It’s estimated that one third of all our food is thanks to the humble pollinator moving from plant to plant and spreading seeds along the way[10]. Sadly, over the past decades, irresponsible agriculture, overzealous pesticides, and the loss of wild meadows have seen these essential creatures fall into steep decline.

Organic or pesticide-free vineyards – often one of the hallmarks of fine wine – helps bees and other pollinators get back on track. Small flowers bud around the vines as by-products, and split grapes provide rewarding sweet juice for the hungry invertebrates. Some wineries are now planting more native shrubs around vineyards to further support pollinators[11].

4.   Fine wine fights back against single-use plastic

Plastic is fast becoming a dirty word – and especially single-use plastic. Even 400 years after it’s thrown away, this packaging will not have biologically degraded[12]. As activists and environmentalists call for an end to this era, fine wine could help carve out a new way forward. Unlike disposable plastic, fine wine glass bottles are something to be treasured.

What’s more, glass has a much higher recycling rate than plastic alternatives, and unlike plastic it can be 100% recycled.[13] Although glass is by no means a perfect solution, it seems to be a better way forward than many other “ESG” junk food, soft drink or oil companies are offering. Fascinatingly, some wineries are even experimenting with light-weight glass and even cardboard bottles as we type[14]. Watch this space!

5.   Vineyards help fill rocky terrain and hills with plants

As anyone who spent a youthful summer picking grapes will be able to tell you, it was more of a work-out than expected! This is because the knee-high vines are usually grown on steep sunny hills and even over rocky terrain.

While this may be strenuous on the hamstrings, it’s great for using up space wisely. Vineyards often voyage up mountains and valleys to face the sun. This helps to fill up otherwise unsuitable stretches of hillside with plants and flowers.

The higher altitude also acts as a natural pesticide, making it much easier to create organic wines. What’s more, these vineyards are also less likely to catch and spread grape diseases[15], adding yet another environmental benefit to the investment.

… Is it finally time to consider fine wine as a sustainable investment?

As assets go, wine is one of the least carbon-intensive. As WeForum recently pointed out[16], you’d have to drink a bottle of wine every single day for three years for it to have the same impact as a single London to New York flight.

The fundamental business of creating wine is so intrinsically sustainable that most of its emissions come from just the packaging [17] and tourism[18]. And winemakers are keen to cut these down! Every day, we’re seeing more and more environmental initiatives coming from the industry. From renewable energy to sustainable wine tours, there’s a vast range of bright and brilliant programmes coming into the mainstream.

So, is it time to start considering fine wine as a viable environmental investment? We believe so.

If you’d like to learn more about the fascinating world of wine investments, download our complimentary guide.

 

[1] Source : UN PRI

[2] Source : The Ethical Partnership

[3] Source : UN PRI

[4] Source : HD Investment Content

[5] Source : Wine GB

[6] Source : Wine GB

[7] Source : Wine GB

[8] Source : United Nations

[9] Source : United Nations

[10] Source : Our World in Data

[11] Source : Forbes

[12] Source : National Geographic

[13] Source : Sustainable Jungle

[14] Source : Beverage Industry Enthusiast

[15] Source : Olive Magazine

[16] Source : We Forum

[17] Source : UPMRAFLATAC

[18] Source : The Conversation

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Seven Delicious Reasons to Invest in Fine Wine

As alternative assets go, fine wine is one of the most vibrant and exciting on the market. Not only does it add depth and passion to an investment portfolio, but it can deliver extraordinary returns too. Experts recommend allocating between 1 – 2% of an overall portfolio to this intriguing asset class[1]. And among the super wealthy high net worth individuals, the proportion is anticipated to be even higher[2].

Here are seven compelling benefits to consider investing in fine wine:

1.   Impressive potential for returns

Investors should always remember that there are no guarantees, and historical returns do not mean future ones. But it’s hard to ignore the impressive and steady performance of the fine wine markets.

Overall, the fine wine market has enjoyed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% since 1988[3]. Another report by Knight Frank that fine wines had increased in value by a staggering 127% over the past decade[4]. And it’s showing no signs of slowing. Already within the first months of 2022, fine wines outperformed all other major markets, except commodities[5]. What’s more, experts are optimistic for the future. Burgundy wines and Champagne have particularly flourished over recent months. And – as adverse weather and climate change impacts the creation of new wine[6] – these vintages are likely to become ever more sought-after.

2.   Powerful inflation-beating properties

Today’s market is overheating. And as central banks frantically increase interest rates in a bid to slow down inflation, it shows no sign of cooling. In May 2022, the Bank of England warned Britain to brace itself for inflation levels to rise above 10% – the highest since 1988[7]. This leaves traditional stocks and bonds investors feeling nauseous. The markets are staggering, with cash and debt instruments on the edge of plummeting.

Meanwhile, those assets such as gold, art or fine wines which have inflation-beating properties are in demand. This could make it an excellent choice for concerned investors.

3.   An exceptional diversifier

Nobel Prize laureate, economist Harry Markowitz famously quipped that diversification is the only “free lunch” in investing[8]. This is the process of spreading wealth across many different investments to take advantage of market opportunities while shielding against turbulence. Diversification doesn’t just mean investing in different asset types, sectors, or geographical locations though. Crucially, it also means investing in assets with different income sources and value drivers. Or to put it another way, the value of some assets should be uncorrelated to the stock market.

This is often a stumbling block for investors. How can you invest in an asset that’s uncorrelated or even negatively correlated to the stock market? Whether it’s tech companies in the US, or renewable energy plants in Europe, most assets are all impacted by the same market events. However, fine wine is different. The value of fine wine is determined by a completely unrelated set of criteria to publicly-traded stocks or bonds.

Some of these value-drivers are unique to the bottle. The wine-making technique, region, weather, year, packaging, storage, age and more all play a part. While the supply and demand factors are generally kept within a niche and exclusive circle of connoisseurs. This makes fine wine a truly exciting diversifier, akin to art. During the 2020 pandemic and recession, for example, the value of fine wines increased by a whopping 13%[9]. This highlights a powerful negative correlation to the wider market performance.

For forward-thinking investors, fine wine could just be the strategic hedge against market volatility they’ve been looking for.

4.   A refreshingly tangible investment

In a world filled with bitcoin, the metaverse and crypto-assets, an investment you can touch is a breath of fresh air. Physical assets like gold, property, or fine wines can feel extremely reassuring during periods of market turbulence – which becomes reflected in their value.

Tangibility is one of the most significant benefits and differentiators of fine wine as an asset. While the costs of storage and insurance can eat into returns, it’s a small price to pay for the durability of the asset. After all, companies can collapse, rendering their shares and stock options useless. Inflation can eat away at cash or debt. And companies or governments can default on their loans, and file for bankruptcy. Electronic shares are only real if they exist on a screen.

But, regardless of the economy outside, a premium bottle of fine wine still be there. It will still be a desirable and solid asset which becomes better and rarer over time.

5.   Fine wine is exempt from Capital Gains Tax

Fine wine falls into a curious tax bracket. As it is deemed by the HMRC to have a useful economic life of 50 years or less, it’s known as a “wasting chattel” or a “wasting asset”. While this may not sound flattering to the purveyors of fine wines, this unsightly name is really a blessing for investors. It means returns from these assets are free from costly Capital Gains Tax (CGT) – currently set at 20% for all annual income after £12,300.[10] This is a major benefit of fine wines and can seriously boost returns for investors.

If the wine is considered to have a life of more than 50 years, some CGT may apply, but it’s still somewhat shielded from the full hit. Tax is payable only for returns of more than £6,000. This is a significant perk for investors which could more than compensate for storage and insurance costs. Find out more about fine wine taxation.

6.   More room for price negotiation

More than one million trades[11] are made on the London Stock Exchange every single day. With so many people jostling to buy and sell shares, this makes the public investment markets extremely efficient. Whatever price a stock has at any moment of time is probably exactly what it’s worth, according to thousands of investors. Because of this, it’s almost impossible to get a bargain in the short-term. Instead, investors need to buy at a pre-determined price and wait until the asset appreciates or depreciates.

With fine wine, the process of buying and selling is completely different. And unless, you’re investing with an index fund or something similar, you’ll likely find yourself at exclusive auction houses or negotiating a sale privately. Just like buying a property or bidding online, this opens the possibility of getting a better price than you expected.

7.   Support a much-loved industry

It’s no coincidence that fine wines are known as “passion assets”. Investors who want to do more than simply generate financial returns often turn to this unique world because of its vibrant industry and exclusive inner-circle.

Being part of this group of investors means supporting a sector steeped in history and culture. It means putting value on true quality and appreciating some of the finest craftsmanship in the world. It is the only asset class that you can sip and savour, bringing exquisite flavours and exceptional taste to your portfolio.

Interested to learn more …?

Incorporating fine wine into a diversified investment portfolio could be a tasteful way to; boost returns, enhance diversification, shield against inflation, benefit from tax perks and even support an industry steeped in culture. If you’d like to learn more about the fascinating world of wine investments, download our complimentary guide.

 

[1] Source : Honest Grapes

[2] Source : Alt Class

[3] Source : Liv-ex

[4] Source : Knight Frank

[5] Source : Liv-ex

[6] Source : The Drinks Business

[7] Source : The Guardian

[8] Source : NetWealth

[9] Source : Knight Frank

[10] Source : HMRC

[11] Source : Statista