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Fine wine market trends amid economic shifts in Q1 2024

Fine wine market

The following article is an extract from our Q1 2024 Fine Wine Report which will be published in full later this week.

  • The industry benchmark Liv-ex 100 index fell 1% in Q1 2024, a milder decline than the 4.2% dip at the end of last year.
  • Bond and equity markets rallied in anticipation of interest rate cuts by major central banks.
  • Over the past twenty years, the Liv-ex 1000’s most significant year-on-year dip was only 15%, less severe than that of major stock indices like the S&P 500 (-45%).

After a challenging start to the year, the global economy is showing signs of resilience and potential growth. As we moved past the first quarter of 2024, both bond and equity markets rallied in anticipation of interest rate cuts by major central banks. Notably, sectors like the fine wine market are expected to benefit from these shifts, although the impact has not yet materialised.

The fine wine market in Q1 2024

The industry benchmark, Liv-ex 100 index, saw a modest decline of 1% in Q1 2024, an improvement from the 4.2% dip observed at the end of the previous year. This index experienced a slight drop of 0.3% in January and 1.1% in February but recovered in March with a 0.4% increase, marking its first rise in twelve months. Influential movers included Promontory and Dominus from Napa Valley, Super Tuscan Sassicaia, and Clos des Papes Châteauneuf-du-Pape. Despite this recovery, the fine wine market’s performance still lags behind mainstream financial markets.

Comparing mainstream markets

Mainstream indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the S&P 500 have shown remarkable strength over the past year. Their annual growth from March 2023 to March 2024 ranks in the top 10% of year-on-year periods this century.

However, bond and equity markets experienced heightened volatility at the beginning of the year, due to geopolitical risks like the Middle East conflict and ongoing uncertainty around interest rates. This confluence of factors boosted the safe-haven asset Gold which has extended its run on buying momentum.

Liv-ex 100 vs mainstream markets and Gold

A decade of the Liv-ex 1000 index

Celebrating ten years since its official launch in January 2014, the Liv-ex 1000 index provides two decades of insight into fine wine prices, encompassing a wide range of regions including Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, the Rhône, Italy, and the rest of the world (Spain, Portugal, the USA, and Australia).

Over the past twenty years, while the Liv-ex 1000 has seen 64 year-on-year declines, its most significant drop was only 15%, considerably less severe than that of major stock indices like the S&P 500, which once fell by 45%.

On the upside, the Liv-ex 1000’s best annual performance showed gains of 38%, comparable to those of major indices like the FTSE 100 and the Dow Jones, and its average growth rate of 8.4% is higher than many mainstream markets, only trailing behind the S&P 500.

Liv-ex 1000 vs mainstream markets

As the global markets navigate through turbulent waters, the nuanced performance of the fine wine sector, detailed in our comprehensive Q1 2024 report, continues to offer valuable perspectives on both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Stay tuned for the full report later this week.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Key trends that shaped the fine wine market in Q3

The following article is an extract from our Q3 Fine Wine Investment report, which will be published next week.

  • Ongoing inflation and interest rate hikes led to increased volatility in mainstream markets.
  • The fine wine market in Q3 was a buyer’s market for two main reasons: availability of stock and falling prices creating value.
  • Two of the best value La Place releases were Almaviva 2021 and Masseto 2020.

High interest rates rattle global markets

Mainstream markets experienced a turbulent third quarter, mainly due to a marked rise in borrowing costs coupled with a substantial increase of nearly 30% in oil prices. As a major input in several industries, rising prices for crude oil led to overall increase in production costs, impacting profit margins and, ultimately, reducing stock prices. These developments created a challenging landscape for stocks and bonds, with investors opting for more liquid assets like cash that tends to be a safer short-term bet. This inclination towards liquid assets illustrated the unresolved struggle between the Federal Reserve and inflation, leaving investors navigating a path marked by heightened risk and uncertainty.

Fine wine’s downturn slows

Fine wine prices fell in Q3, but their declines gradually became smaller. For instance, the Liv-ex 100 index recorded dips of 3.1% in July, 1.3% in August and 0.1% in September, showing humble signs of recovery. The broader Liv-ex 1000 index dipped 3.9% in Q3. Italian wine fared well, thanks to strong performance from Tuscany and Piedmont, as well as older Bordeaux vintages which experienced slight rebounds. Global trading activity increased suggesting that interest is there for well-priced stock.

A buyer’s market

The fine wine market in Q3 was a buyer’s market for two main reasons: availability of stock and falling prices creating value. This was particularly noticeable in regions like Champagne. Some of the top and most desirable brands, which have an impressive mid- to long-term performance saw small declines in Q3. Buyers took advantage of this opportunity and demand increased. Such is the case with Dom Pérignon 2013, which has fallen 7.1% in value since its release in January but has been the most traded wine this year. The brand’s overall trajectory is upwards, with Dom Pérignon prices rising 64% on average in the last five years, and 133% over the last decade.

Assessing the La Place de Bordeaux campaign

Over 110 fine wines were released through La Place de Bordeaux this September. The overall pricing strategy bore similarities to Bordeaux En Primeur earlier this year: price increases that failed to take the current market environment into account. Some critics expressed the opinion that there weren’t ‘as many hits as usual’. Two wines that stood out as good value were Almaviva 2021 and Masseto 2020; the latter immediately generated trading activity above its release price.

Over the last decade, Almaviva prices have risen on average 167%, while Masseto is up 107%.

Stay tuned – our Q3 Fine Wine Investment report will be published next week. The report contains further analysis on the best-performing and most in-demand wines, and Q4 investment outlook.

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Four key market trends from the 2023 Liv-ex Classification

  • The fine wine market is diversifying, with Argentina and Switzerland making new entries in the 2023 Liv-ex Classification.
  • Bordeaux’s influence is waning, now accounting for less than 30% of wines in the classification, while other regions like Champagne rise in prominence.
  • Internal shifts in Burgundy indicate changing buying preferences, driven by the search for value and stock.

The Liv-ex Classification is a ranking of the world’s leading fine wine labels, based solely on their price. The classification takes into account minimum levels of activity and number of vintages traded over one year to present a more accurate picture of the market today. Like the 1855 Bordeaux Classification, the wines are divided into five tiers (price bands).

The 2023 edition featured 296 wines from nine countries. It presented a broad overview of the state of the secondary market – what is trading, and at what price levels. As the market continues to evolve, we break down four key trends from the 2023 Liv-ex classification.

Continued expansion in the world of fine wine

While the number of wines that qualified for inclusion in the 2023 rankings was lower than in the previous 2021 edition (349) due to changes in the methodology, the fine wine investment market has continued to diversify.

Argentina re-entered the rankings with five wines compared to having just one in 2019. Switzerland also joined the classification for the first time with Gantenbein Pinot Noir. Meanwhile, Spain and Chile saw 40% and 100% respective increases in the number of wines entering.

Regional diversity was particularly noticeable in the second-lowest priced 4th tier (£456-£637 per 12×75), which featured wines from France (24), Italy (16), Portugal (3), Australia (2), Spain (1), the USA (1), and Argentina (1).

Bordeaux among global competitors

It is no secret that Bordeaux’s dominance in the fine wine investment market has been fading since its glory days in 2009-2010. The continued broadening of the market has meant that the region has become one of many players, accounting for under 30% of the wines in the 2023 classification.

This has been further aided by its mediocre price performance relative to other regions. The Bordeaux 500 index has risen just 2.9% over the last two years, compared to a 19% move for its parental Liv-ex 1000 index, and a 36.7% increase for Champagne, which has been the best performer. All considered, Liv-ex wrote that ‘this pattern may well continue in future editions’ as new entrants challenge Bordeaux’s monopoly.

While Bordeaux’s influence wanes, other regions like Champagne are capturing the limelight.

The stellar rise of Champagne prices

Champagne has experienced a significant price surge in recent years, which has been reflected in the global rankings.

The majority of Champagnes (10) in the classification entered the first tier – wines priced above £3,641 per 12×75. The remaining 12 were split between tier 2 (£1,002-£3,640) and tier 3 (£638-£1,001). There were no Champagnes in tiers 4 and 5 (wines below £1,000 per case).

The most expensive Champagne was Jacques Selosse Millésime, with an average trade price of £32,516 per case, followed by Krug’s Clos d’Ambonnay (£30,426) and Clos du Mesnil (£17,509). The latter has risen 105% in value over the last five years.

On average, Champagne prices are up 62.8% during this time. They peaked in October 2022, following a year and a half of steady ascent. Since then, the Liv-ex Champagne 50 index has entered a corrective phase – but not significant enough to change the region’s trajectory. Sustained demand has been further buoying its performance.

Internal reshuffling in Burgundy

Burgundy, home to the most expensive wines in the rankings, has been undergoing an internal shift. New entrants have replaced many of the labels in previous editions, signalling changes in buying preferences.

Heightened demand for the region in 2022 led buyers to explore different wines within Burgundy, seeking both value and stock availability. Some of the new entrants in the 2023 classification include Prieuré Roch Ladoix Le Clou Rouge, Domaine Louis Jadot Gevrey-Chambertin Premier Cru Clos Saint-Jacques and Domaine Trapet Père et Fils Latricières-Chambertin Grand Cru.

Interestingly, while these new labels have entered the ranking, they seem to have replaced older, perhaps less active, Burgundy labels. Indeed, the overall proportion of Burgundy wines in the classification has remained steady, even as specific labels fall in and out of favour.

As new players emerge and existing ones adapt, one thing is clear: the fine wine market will continue to diversify and evolve, promising a fascinating future for everyone involved.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.