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Fine wine prices continued to decline in H1 2025 against a challenging global economic backdrop.
A small group of wines outpaced the broader market by a wide margin, with the best-performing wine rising over 36%.
In a recalibrating market, scarcity, selectivity, and substance will continue to define success.

The global fine wine market continued its cautious descent through the first half of 2025, extending a downward trend that began in earnest in late 2022. From Champagne to California, regional indices recorded further losses – a sobering contrast to the post-pandemic surge that peaked in September 2022. What followed has been nearly 18 months of persistent price softening.

Yet even in this declining market environment, select wines showed resilience and in some cases, delivered double-digit growth. A small group of wines outpaced the broader market by a wide margin, with the best-performing wine rising over 36% in H1 alone. These rare outliers were not driven by hype or thematic rotation, but by a return to fundamentals: scarcity, maturity, critical acclaim, and name recognition. In a soft market, selectivity became strategy, and quality, its own form of currency.

The macroeconomic backdrop: volatility returns

H1 2025 unfolded against a challenging global economic backdrop, with fine wine caught in the crosscurrents of:

Reignited trade tensions

The surprise announcement of 200% US tariffs on EU wine imports in March rattled the industry. While the final figure was scaled back to 20% and implementation delayed by 90 days, the initial shock had an immediate effect. US demand plummeted initially, and confidence took time to recover – despite evidence of resilient buying behaviour by Q2.

Subdued Asian demand

In Asia, sentiment remained quiet. Many buyers – particularly in Hong Kong and mainland China – adopted a wait-and-see posture, citing political and market uncertainty. The result was lower volume and thinner trading conditions for key regions like Burgundy, Bordeaux, and Champagne.

Monetary pressures impact

Persistent interest rate pressure globally has reduced the appeal of illiquid assets such as wine. With safer yields available in cash or bonds, some collectors have hesitated to commit fresh capital or have chosen to sell.

A tepid Bordeaux En Primeur campaign

The Bordeaux 2024 En Primeur campaign, already burdened by a slow market and a hesitant consumer base, failed to inspire broad demand. Pricing fatigue, underwhelming back-vintage performance, and merchant overstocking created difficult conditions even for well-scored wines.

Liv-ex indices reflected the climate:

- Liv-ex 50 (tracking First Growth performance): -6% in H1, now back to 2016 levels.
- Liv-ex 100 (Liv-ex benchmark index): -4.9% in H1, now back to 2020 levels.
- Liv-ex 1000 (broadest market measure): -4.7% in H1, now back to 2020 levels.

Amid these headwinds, investment allocations required precise selection more than ever.

Regional performance – H1 2025

Though every major region ended H1 in negative territory, the magnitude of decline varied, offering insight into what categories still command investor attention and which ones may face longer-term repositioning.

The best-performing region: the Rhône

The Rhône 100 index emerged as the most defensive performer in H1, down just 2.5%. This may come as a surprise, given Rhône’s traditionally lower liquidity compared to Bordeaux or Burgundy. Yet in periods of risk aversion, the region’s combination of world-class producers (e.g. Jean Louis Chave, Guigal), lower pricing, critical appraisal, and hence good value for money have made it an increasingly attractive hunting ground for value-driven buyers.

Several Rhône wines appeared in the H1 top 10 performance list, including Chave’s Hermitage Rouge 2021 (+36.8%) and Guigal’s Côte Rôtie Château d’Ampuis 2018 (+20.0%) – reinforcing Rhône’s reputation as a quiet outperformer in challenging times.

The worst-performing regions: Bordeaux, Burgundy and California

Three major regions – California, Burgundy, and the broader Bordeaux 500 – each fell 5.6%, making them the weakest performers year to date.

Burgundy’s fall reflects an overdue correction after its dramatic run-up in 2021–2022. Though top-tier names (like DRC and Clos de Tart) remain in demand, the broader category has struggled under inflated pricing and speculative fatigue.
Similar to Burgundy, California, particularly its cult Cabernet segment, has suffered from reduced international demand.
Bordeaux’s broader weakness may be attributed to the underperformance of back vintages. However, its Legends 40 sub-index, focused on top estates with market longevity, proved more resilient (-2.6%).

H1 2025 top performers: the outliers that defied the trend

While most indices slipped, a handful of wines delivered double-digit returns.

Insights from the standouts

The Rhône leads with Chave’s Hermitage

Despite the Rhône 100 index declining 2.5%, Jean Louis Chave’s 2021 Hermitage Rouge rose 36.8% – a stark outperformance driven by limited availability and increased global recognition of its collectible status.

Sweet wines surged

Both Château d’Yquem 2014 and Château Suduiraut 2016 featured in the top ten, defying the quiet backdrop for Sauternes. This suggests renewed collector interest in undervalued dessert wines, particularly when linked to exceptional vintages.

US cult wines hold their own

Screaming Eagle 2012 proved resilient, with a 24.4% rise in value since the start of the year. Despite the California 50 index falling 5.6%, high-end Napa commands global attention in top-tier vintages.

Champagne’s prestige cuvées still sparkle

While the Champagne 50 index fell 4.9%, Pol Roger Sir Winston Churchill 2015 bucked the trend with +24.4%, showing how top releases can outperform broader categories when aged and ready to drink.

Key takeaways for investors

Market-wide corrections are not uniform. Even in downturns, well-selected wines can deliver strong returns.

Rarity and recognisability drive results. Names like DRC, Yquem, Chave, and Screaming Eagle continue to act as safe harbours.

Blue-chip vintage selection matters. Wines from ‘off’ vintages like Canon 2014 offered some of the best entry points and upside surprises.

Sweet wines are staging a quiet comeback. This suggests contrarian plays may have room to run in H2.

Selectivity as the strategy for H2 2025

The first half of 2025 has confirmed what seasoned collectors already know: not all wines move with the market. Even as regional indices declined across the board, a handful of exceptional bottles bucked the trend, delivering standout returns through a combination of rarity, critical reputation, and maturity.

In today’s climate, the challenge isn’t access to wine but making the right decisions. Broad market exposure has offered little protection. Instead, performance has come from targeted allocations, where deep knowledge of producers, vintages, and release histories gives investors the edge.

Looking ahead to H2, the outlook is cautiously constructive. While macroeconomic headwinds remain – from tariffs and interest rates to uneven global demand – opportunities still exist for those willing to look beyond the indices.

In a recalibrating market, scarcity, selectivity, and substance will continue to define success.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

While the plummeting pound may be bad news for many stock market investors in the UK, overseas fine wine collectors can pick up once-in-a-lifetime bargains. In this article, we’ll uncover why the strong dollar and weak pound represent a unique opportunity for investors in the US and Asia.

The pound has fallen, fine wine has not

To avoid dealing with burdensome conversion rates, fine wine is generally traded in sterling. Bottles from all over the world are listed and compared in British pounds on the global market.

This means that as the foreign exchange rates ebb and flow, the prices of the wine can seem more or less expensive to overseas investors. For example, on the 12th of February 2018, a bottle costing £1,000 would have set back US buyers $1,402.60. The following month, on the 12th of March 2018, the same bottle costing £1,000 would have come to $1,394.30 [1]. Usually, with stable currencies, you would expect the differences to be relatively marginal. High-end investors probably wouldn’t give too much importance to a couple of dollars difference when they are spending thousands.

Recently, however, the value of sterling has fallen dramatically against the US dollar. The pound has nose-dived to the lowest value in forty years, which is excellent news for opportunistic investors overseas. Buyers who deal in dollars can pick up exquisite wine for exceptionally low prices. On Tuesday 27th September, the same £1,000 bottle would cost US investors just $1,080. For collectors over the pond, Black Friday has come early in the wine markets.

US & Asian investors surge forward

Data from Liv-ex shows that many overseas investors have already taken advantage of the plunge in prices. As the pound began to tumble on Friday 23rd September, US buyers became more active. By Monday morning, they had accounted for 39.1% of trade, more than double the previous weekend of 16.9% [2].

Investors in Asia also took part in the advantageous market. Some currencies such as the HK dollar are linked to the US dollar, so investors in Hong Kong could also ride the favourable FOREX wave. But even currencies which are not directly linked to the US currency could benefit from the low sterling.

Although the Chinese Yuan has also suffered historic lows against the US dollar recently, it’s still doing relatively better than the pound. Buying fine wine in sterling means these investors can also benefit from superior exchange rates. Over the weekend from the 23rd to the 26th of September 2022, Asian buyers also accounted for the larger share of Liv-ex trading volumes. Around 11.7% of all movements came from Asian investors in September, up from 8% in August.

More buyers are (probably) good for the market

As the old economic theory states, when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. Over the long-term, having a more varied and international group of buyers is likely to be a good thing for fine wine investors. It could lead to higher prices and more liquidity, which is almost always welcome.

As new buyers reveal themselves it will be interesting to see how they react to market events. At the time of writing, fine wine is a famously recession-resistant investment. This is partly because the market is niche and not susceptible to stock market fluctuations. However, if too many investors enter, seeking to shield from market shocks with short-term alternative income sources, this could reduce some of wine’s recession resistance.

Overall, however, more buyers – especially those who are less impacted by the value of the pound – are likely to bolster and raise the fine wine market.

How long will the low prices last?

It’s impossible to predict how long the weak sterling will last. What we can say with relative certainty is that the sudden drops over recent weeks have been triggered by internal political events. Specifically, the change of UK Prime Minister, radical tax plans and proposed national deficit increase have spooked investors.

On the morning of the 28th of September, the Bank of England stepped in to buy up government bonds. This saw a small uptick in the strength of the pound, which indicates that it is still possible for the pound to regain some of its power, with the right intervention. We also do not know at this stage if all of the proposed tax cuts and borrowing will go ahead. If they are abandoned, we could see the markets breathe a sigh of relief and the pound could resurface too.

For US and Asian investors looking to buy up exquisite wine at exceptional prices, there’s no time like the present. Precious bottles can also be an excellent shield against inflation, helping investors maintain the value of their wealth in spite of any market turmoil outside.

[1] Source: MacroTrends

[2] Source: Liv-ex

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