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Fine wine in the age of AI

  • AI has emerged as a transformative force in investment management. 
  • 98% of UK wealth managers expect AI to have a significant impact on fine wine investment in the next five years. 
  • Key areas include greater investor control, wider market acceptance and improved transparency.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a transformative force in investment management, reshaping industries through advanced data analysis, predictive modelling, and automation. From equities to property, AI-powered tools can process vast amounts of information, identify patterns, and spotlight opportunities with unprecedented speed.

The fine wine sector, traditionally reliant on expert opinion, historical market trends, and insider knowledge, is now at the cusp of a similar transformation. AI is set to redefine how fine wine is valued, traded, and perceived within investment portfolios. Only 2% of WineCap’s latest survey respondents believe AI will have no impact on fine wine investment in the next five years. This overwhelming consensus highlights the disruptive potential of AI and its role in increasing market efficiency, accessibility, and transparency.

So, how exactly is AI poised to reshape fine wine investment? Insights from industry participants highlight several key areas of transformation.

Greater investor control: A shift away from brokers?

The most significant impact predicted by 76% of respondents is that AI will make it easier for investors to control their investments independently.

Historically, fine wine investment has required expertise from brokers, consultants, and wine merchants who provide insights into market pricing, provenance, and expected returns. 

However, AI-driven platforms might reduce reliance on intermediaries by offering investors real-time valuations based on live market transactions and historical performance, automated risk assessments and tailored portfolio strategies.

This shift means that both new and experienced investors will have more tools at their disposal to make informed decisions, potentially leading to a more democratised market.

Fine wine as a more widely accepted asset class

AI’s ability to provide data-backed insights is expected to enhance the credibility of fine wine as an alternative investment category. According to our survey, 72% of UK wealth managers believe AI will make fine wine a more widely accepted asset class.

Currently, one of the biggest barriers to institutional investment in fine wine is valuation inconsistency and market opacity. Unlike stocks, which trade on transparent exchanges, fine wine prices may vary across different auction houses and merchants. 

AI can help solve this problem through improved risk modelling, more accurate valuation algorithms and enhanced demand forecasting to predict which wines will appreciate over time.

With these advancements, institutional investors and wealth managers will find it easier to allocate capital to fine wine, increasing its legitimacy alongside other alternative assets like gold and property. 

Attracting a new generation of investors

Nearly 48% of our survey respondents believe AI will make fine wine investment more appealing to younger generations. This shift is critical as baby boomers – who have traditionally dominated fine wine collecting – begin to exit the market, and younger investors with a digital-first mindset step in.

AI-driven platforms might lower entry barriers for new investors by offering intuitive user interfaces similar to modern trading apps like Robinhood or Wealthfront and providing personalised investment recommendations based on user preferences and risk tolerance.

By enhancing accessibility, AI can help bring fine wine investment into the mainstream of digital wealth management, positioning it alongside equities and ETFs as a viable portfolio component.

Improved transparency in the fine wine market

Lack of transparency has long been a challenge for fine wine investors, making it difficult to track pricing trends, authenticate bottles, and assess liquidity risks. However, AI-powered analytics are poised to change this by introducing new levels of visibility and accuracy into the market.

According to the survey, 38% of respondents believe AI will bring greater transparency to the industry. Key improvements might include live tracking of historical price movements, enhanced authentication processes, and supply-chain analytics;

These improvements will increase investor confidence, reduce information asymmetry, and create a more efficient secondary market.

WineCap Wealth Report 2025: UK Edition

What does the future hold?

While AI is still in the early stages of adoption in fine wine investment, the technology is already proving its value by enhancing investor control, broadening market access, and increasing transparency. The next five years are likely to see even greater integration of AI into fine wine investment strategies. Potential developments include blockchain integration, predictive analytics, and automated trading platforms.

As the fine wine investment landscape evolves, those who embrace AI-powered insights will gain a competitive edge, benefiting from greater market clarity and data-driven decision-making. The fine wine sector is on the brink of a technological revolution – one that could reshape how investors interact with and perceive this centuries-old asset class.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

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Fine wine sustainability report (Part II): how can fine wine mitigate risk in a sustainable portfolio?

  • The second part of our report focuses on how fine wine can mitigate risk for sustainable investors.
  • By blending sustainability-linked bonds with fine wine, investors can shield some of their wealth from inflation while having access to a regular income stream.
  • The steadiness of fine wine can help to smooth out the overall performance of sustainable portfolios, hedging against the volatility risks of impact investments.

Fine wine has many qualities that make it an environmentally and socially sustainable asset, as discussed in the first part of this report. And we believe that it can offer even more value as a hedge for sustainable portfolios. Just as with traditional investing, each investor is different. However, there will be some common themes and risks. In this section, we analyse how fine wine interacts with some of the most popular sustainable investments, and where the assets can become greater than the sum of their parts.

Sustainability-linked bonds

For businesses to become sustainable, they will usually need to pay for new infrastructure. This is where bonds come in. Investors finance the projects and receive a regular income from the repayments and interest (known as coupons) over a set period of time. There are many examples of corporate and sovereign green bonds, but probably the most impactful is Orsted.

In 2017, Orsted raised 1.25 billion euros from investors to successfully transition from brown to green energy. The bonds last until 2029. Since then, Orsted has been named the world’s most sustainable company. Today 91% of the energy it creates comes from renewable sources. The aim is to be at 99% by 2025. For context, worldwide this accounts for just 13% of energy. Orsted has also just released a blue bond, which focuses on marine life and oceans.

Sustainability-linked bonds can be built around society as well as the environment. Research by Goldman Sachs found 65% of investors are interested in social bonds, with 29% already invested.

Bonds are a good and relatively low-risk way for investors to generate an income while doing good. But there are some downsides. The main issue is that as bonds set a fixed repayment schedule years – sometimes decades – in advance, inflation can reduce the purchasing power of the income over time. In a usual market environment, central banks aim to keep inflation levels to around 2% or under, which is priced into the bond. However, in recent years, it has shot up to double digits. This can slash real returns for investors, and potentially put them off green bonds.

We believe that fine wine can help to hedge against the inflation risk of sustainability-linked bonds. The two assets complement each other well, as fine wine is less liquid but inflation resistant. By blending bonds with fine wine, investors can shield some of their wealth from inflation while having access to a regular income stream.

Impact investments

There are some businesses and organisations that make a clear and measurable change, while delivering returns for investors. Some environmental examples include investments in sustainable waste management, building renewable energy plants or businesses producing meat alternatives. There are also social movements; for example, venture capitalist firms investing in women and people of colour, affordable housing developers or accessible childcare services. When investments make tangible improvements, they are usually known as impact investments (because they make an impact).

While impact investments can be almost any asset class or risk level, in general they tend to be on the riskier side. By their nature, they are usually fairly new ventures, and can also be subject to incoming regulations. This could mean that the stocks spring and plunge, making sustainable investors nervous.

Fine wine, by contrast, is a low-risk asset with little volatility. We feel that the steadiness of fine wine can help to smooth out the overall performance of sustainable portfolios, hedging against the volatility risks of impact investments.

Overall positioning in a portfolio

Fine wine should not be the star of the show, but more of a supporting act. It is often best placed as a hedge against other sustainable or impactful assets, especially those with inflation or volatility risks. Generally, wealth managers and investors keep fine wine allocations under 10% of the total portfolio.

Stay tuned for Part III – profiling the sustainable investor.

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Navigating the fine wine market: insights for savvy investors

A version of this article by WineCap’s CEO Alexander Westgarth was first published in Forbes.

  • Fine wine has been traded for millennia although its popularity as an investment is more recent.
  • The fine wine market’s stability compared to stocks make it an effective volatility smoother, preserving wealth during market downturns.
  • Investors should consider factors such as illiquidity risk, storage costs, and insurance coverage, while positioning wine as a complementary asset within a diversified portfolio.

The world of fine wine has long captivated investors with its timeless allure. Wine appreciation and collection is one of the oldest practices; the ancient Greeks, Egyptians, Phoenicians and Romans were all big traders of wine. Perhaps the first evidence of wine investment in the more traditional sense can be found in the writings of Thomas Jefferson, America’s third president. In 1787, he wrote that the 1786 vintage for top Bordeaux wines cost 1800 livres per tonneau compared to 2000 livres for the older 1783.

Today, the fine wine market is gaining popularity, not just among oenophiles; investors and wealth managers are looking to reap the benefits of this diverse asset class. New participants are eager to ensure they avoid potential pitfalls and make informed investment decisions. This article provides some of the key considerations for successful wine investing, showcasing the market’s potential at a glance.

Wine as a hedging asset

When constructing a well-rounded investment portfolio, it is crucial to consider the inclusion of fine wine as a hedging asset. Fine wine has a historical track record of retaining and increasing its value, even during periods of economic recession or financial uncertainty. Recent years are a case in point. While the world grappled with pandemics, wars and inflation, fine wine enjoyed an incline. Over the last half-decade, the average bottle of fine wine has increased in value by a notable 45%, according to the Liv-ex 1000 index.

Certain wines did exceptionally well over the pandemic. The standout players were Burgundy, Champagne and Bordeaux. At the start, fine bottles of Burgundy were selling for just under £200 (May 2020). But within two and a half years, average prices soared to over £325 (September 2022)—a return of 62%.

There are several reasons why wine tends to buffer against market shocks. Firstly, as a physical asset, it is less sensitive to inflation – just like property, gold or excellent art. Secondly, the market is private. Buyers are often high net worth or ultra-high net worth individuals, so they are wealthy and passionate. Thirdly, it is a rare and depleting asset.

The scarcity factor of fine wine makes it increasingly valuable over time. As purveyors open bottles, the demand outweighs supply and prices can soar. For instance, Domaine Leroy’s Nuits-Saint-Georges’ Aux Lavieres has experienced a remarkable 353% increase in value over the past five years, driven by its scarcity.

Wine can smooth out volatility

An excellent wine must be enjoyed slowly. In the same way, the wine market tends to move at a more gentle pace too. While stocks can sky-rocket or plummet in weeks, wine movements often take months. This can add much-needed stability to investment portfolios.

Wealth managers have harnessed the volatility-smoothing properties of wine to offset the erratic performance of other assets. Even a modest allocation of up to 10% can significantly reduce overall portfolio volatility and act as a valuable tool during market downturns. When inflation rockets, it can also help to preserve some of the wealth eroded through bonds and cash-like instruments.

Liquidity, storage and insurance considerations

Potential investors should be mindful of the illiquidity risk associated with wine investments. While the wine itself is a liquid asset, the investment tends to lack immediate liquidity. Investors should carefully assess their liquidity needs before embarking on a wine investment journey. Those who might need quick access to cash may want to include some cash-like investments like T-Bills or Bank CDs in their portfolio.

A buy-and-hold strategy typically yields the best results in wine investment. Selling too early can result in missed opportunities for substantial profits, especially when considering the maturity of the vintage. While digital platforms offer relatively quicker selling options, physical auction routes may take longer but can still deliver favorable outcomes.

Investors must also factor in the costs associated with wine investments. Unlike investing in public markets, fine wine incurs additional expenses such as secure storage and temperature control. Investors may also consider insurance, particularly when transporting wines between locations. Although these costs are generally affordable, it is advisable to research storage options, seek reviews, and negotiate insurance coverage within annual fees.

In the United Kingdom, fine wine investments often benefit from exemptions from capital gains tax. This favorable tax treatment can offset storage costs multiple times over, further enhancing the investment’s attractiveness.

Investing soberly

While the potential for substantial returns in fine wine investment is evident, it is crucial to navigate the market with prudence and awareness of potential pitfalls. Investors should maintain sufficient liquidity in their portfolios to handle unforeseen emergencies and consider the long-term costs associated with wine investments.

The key to successful wine investing lies in positioning wine as a hedging asset and volatility smoother within a broader array of assets. Although an exceptional bottle of wine holds its own allure, it should not overshadow the rest of the portfolio. Wine should be viewed as a stable and valuable component, working harmoniously with other investments to help investors achieve their long-term financial goals.

With careful consideration of market dynamics, wine’s inherent hedging properties, and a prudent approach to investment, investors can embrace the timeless elegance of fine wine while capitalising on its investment potential.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.