Categories
Report

Q4 2023 Fine Wine Report & 2024 Outlook

Our Q4 2023 report has now been released. The report offers a comprehensive overview of the fine wine market in the last quarter and a forward-looking perspective for 2024. In a landscape marked by correction and repositioning, it delves into the dynamic interplay of market forces, unveiling both challenges and opportunities for investors.

Report highlights:

  • The fine wine market is navigating 2024 amidst a correction phase, presenting a chance for strategic repositioning.
  • Fine wine prices (Liv-ex 100 index) experienced a 4.2% decline in Q4, reflective of market adjustments amid global economic uncertainties.
  • Increased risk aversion has redirected focus to classic wines and regions, with Bordeaux emerging as a standout beneficiary.
  • Bordeaux’s resurgence, driven by liquidity and a solid reputation, underscores the market’s adaptability to changing dynamics.
  • The upcoming high-volume Burgundy and Bordeaux En Primeur campaigns present opportunities for strategic investment, with pricing strategies holding the key to success.
  • Investors, seeking value and consistency, anticipate potential opportunities in the evolving landscape.
  • As an improving asset in diminishing supply, their emphasis should remain on long-term gains.

Click below to download your free copy of our quarterly investment report.

 

Categories
Learn

Fine wine sustainability report (Part II): how can fine wine mitigate risk in a sustainable portfolio?

  • The second part of our report focuses on how fine wine can mitigate risk for sustainable investors.
  • By blending sustainability-linked bonds with fine wine, investors can shield some of their wealth from inflation while having access to a regular income stream.
  • The steadiness of fine wine can help to smooth out the overall performance of sustainable portfolios, hedging against the volatility risks of impact investments.

Fine wine has many qualities that make it an environmentally and socially sustainable asset, as discussed in the first part of this report. And we believe that it can offer even more value as a hedge for sustainable portfolios. Just as with traditional investing, each investor is different. However, there will be some common themes and risks. In this section, we analyse how fine wine interacts with some of the most popular sustainable investments, and where the assets can become greater than the sum of their parts.

Sustainability-linked bonds

For businesses to become sustainable, they will usually need to pay for new infrastructure. This is where bonds come in. Investors finance the projects and receive a regular income from the repayments and interest (known as coupons) over a set period of time. There are many examples of corporate and sovereign green bonds, but probably the most impactful is Orsted.

In 2017, Orsted raised 1.25 billion euros from investors to successfully transition from brown to green energy. The bonds last until 2029. Since then, Orsted has been named the world’s most sustainable company. Today 91% of the energy it creates comes from renewable sources. The aim is to be at 99% by 2025. For context, worldwide this accounts for just 13% of energy. Orsted has also just released a blue bond, which focuses on marine life and oceans.

Sustainability-linked bonds can be built around society as well as the environment. Research by Goldman Sachs found 65% of investors are interested in social bonds, with 29% already invested.

Bonds are a good and relatively low-risk way for investors to generate an income while doing good. But there are some downsides. The main issue is that as bonds set a fixed repayment schedule years – sometimes decades – in advance, inflation can reduce the purchasing power of the income over time. In a usual market environment, central banks aim to keep inflation levels to around 2% or under, which is priced into the bond. However, in recent years, it has shot up to double digits. This can slash real returns for investors, and potentially put them off green bonds.

We believe that fine wine can help to hedge against the inflation risk of sustainability-linked bonds. The two assets complement each other well, as fine wine is less liquid but inflation resistant. By blending bonds with fine wine, investors can shield some of their wealth from inflation while having access to a regular income stream.

Impact investments

There are some businesses and organisations that make a clear and measurable change, while delivering returns for investors. Some environmental examples include investments in sustainable waste management, building renewable energy plants or businesses producing meat alternatives. There are also social movements; for example, venture capitalist firms investing in women and people of colour, affordable housing developers or accessible childcare services. When investments make tangible improvements, they are usually known as impact investments (because they make an impact).

While impact investments can be almost any asset class or risk level, in general they tend to be on the riskier side. By their nature, they are usually fairly new ventures, and can also be subject to incoming regulations. This could mean that the stocks spring and plunge, making sustainable investors nervous.

Fine wine, by contrast, is a low-risk asset with little volatility. We feel that the steadiness of fine wine can help to smooth out the overall performance of sustainable portfolios, hedging against the volatility risks of impact investments.

Overall positioning in a portfolio

Fine wine should not be the star of the show, but more of a supporting act. It is often best placed as a hedge against other sustainable or impactful assets, especially those with inflation or volatility risks. Generally, wealth managers and investors keep fine wine allocations under 10% of the total portfolio.

Stay tuned for Part III – profiling the sustainable investor.

Categories
Learn

Fine wine sustainability report (Part I): how is fine wine sustainable?

  • Fine wine offers a sustainable investment option, which is increasingly recognised by wealth managers.
  • The industry is proactively adapting to climate change, with practices like regenerative farming and reducing bottle weight. 
  • Fine wine’s focus on social sustainability, including worker welfare and community support, boosts its appeal as a sustainable investment choice, aligning with modern ESG criteria.

Floods, fires and famine are no longer on our doorstep, they have already crossed the threshold into normality. In the first eight months of 2023 alone, the USA suffered 23 separate billion-dollar climate disasters. Research shows that by 2050, floods in Europe will increase five-fold.

Alongside climate disaster comes human suffering, ever-growing wealth gaps and loss of livelihoods. The homes of indigenous tribes are deforested to clear space for oil drilling. The most vulnerable find their communities and businesses flooded. Meanwhile, social inequality rachets up with poor climate policies.

Investors are all too aware of the damage. A 2023 study by Harvard found 85% ask their advisors about sustainable investments. While some groups – particularly millennials – have become activists themselves, using their shareholder votes to force change. So where does fine wine come into this?

Although ethical investing has been around for centuries, climate-focused sustainable investing is strikingly new. The insatiable demand we see today is less than a decade old. Between 2016 and 2020 alone, sustainable investing in Europe, USA, Canada, Australasia, and Japan swelled by 55%. Even though it is a multi-trillion industry, ‘Sustainable Investment’ still doesn’t even have a definition in most parts of the world. Because of this, the movement has borrowed a lot from pre-existing rules, which were mostly religious.

For centuries, our sustainable investment has been built on the foundations of Quaker and Methodist beliefs. This explains why alcohol, or to quote John Wesley ‘that liquid fire’ has been prohibited from almost all ESG (environmental, social, governance) funds – even when fossil fuel producers, fast fashion and plastic polluters made it on the list.

However, we believe this is a mistake. Fine wine offers extraordinary sustainable benefits to investors, especially when it comes to balancing out the risks of green bonds and risky impact investments. Not only does fine wine contribute to a greener future (it is a natural product after all), but this asset class can also plug vital strategic gaps, giving sustainable investors even more confidence. The time has come to give fine wine the credit it deserves.

How is fine wine sustainable?

While there is no universal definition of a ‘Sustainable Investment’, the European Union has made significant headway. According to the EU taxonomy, an environmentally sustainable investment must contribute significantly to one of the following, without jeopardising the others;

  • Climate change mitigation
  • Climate change adaption
  • Sustainable use and protection of water and marine resources
  • Transition to a circular economy
  • Pollution prevention and control
  • Protection and restoration of biodiversity

We believe that fine wine not only meets this criterion but exceeds it. Vineyards rely on a stable climate, fertile soil and regenerative farming. From using free range ducks and sheep instead of pesticides to replacing heavy glass with lighter alternatives, the environmental innovations in the wine industry are never-ending.

Climate change mitigation and circular economies

To secure a safer future, every efficiency counts. The most carbon-intensive part of fine wine production is making and transporting the heavy glass bottles that contain the wine. According to one Sustainable Wine Roundtable report, this accounts for over half of the total environmental impact of wine. Simply by reducing the bottles from 550g to 420g would cut 25% of carbon emissions.

Although dense packaging has long-been associated with quality, European fine wine producers are throwing themselves into this trend. Burgundy producer, Albert Bichot, for example has reduced the bottle weight from 700-750g to 450g. According to one interview, the producer also uses only recycled glass and biodegradable labels. Even Champagne – which typically uses thicker glass – is experimenting. Bollinger, for example, is committed to a 7% reduction in bottle weight by 2029, as well as to use only recycled and recyclable materials.

Another area for improvement is energy efficiency throughout the manufacturing process. Here, fine wine has achieved far more than other industries. Almost every fine wine producer we could find has taken significant steps to reduce emissions dramatically. One of our favourite examples is Ornellaia. 2022 saw this winery slash liquefied petroleum gases usage by 98% with biomass heat. Today the entire firm uses the equivalent of 5% of the average family of four household over a year. Ornellaia has also blended nature with technology by installing a Building Management System to ensure that the temperature is efficiently set.

Climate change adaption, sustainable use of water and protection of biodiversity

World-famous flavours are at risk from climate change. As Comité Champagne report, temperatures are now 1.8 degrees higher than in the 1980s, meaning grapes are at risk of bursting prematurely or drying out. They now need to be picked thirty days earlier, potentially cutting the characteristic tastes short. Fine wine producers have been rigorousness and brave, proactively innovating in the face of the climate crisis. Not only do these innovations help cool down and protect the precious vines, but they also offer investors significant environmental benefits too.

One of the most widespread practices in fine wine vineyards now is the use of regenerative farming. Rather than using typical organic practices, which can still harm pollinators, producers are leaning into nature. Sheep roam around some vineyards picking off bugs organically, and often, horses are put to work instead of tractors.

Sustainability at Pontet Canet

Significantly, many fine wine producers such as Château Cheval Blanc plant diverse fruit and forestry trees between the vines. This helps to shade the grapes, sequester carbon and provide homes for vital pollinators. The fungus which grows around the roots of the trees also soaks up water, acting as a pump, pushing nutrients into the vines.

Water irrigation is one of the hottest topics for today’s fine wine producers, with many now working with their natural landscapes to find the best solutions. Vineyards are increasingly planting or shifting vines along the contours of the land, to prevent run-off during heavy rainfalls. They are also adding ground covers to prevent evaporation, keeping the soil damper and more nutritious.

The adaptions are coming thick and fast, as vineyards experiment with new grapes, and alternative locations. Northern France, the UK and Germany are fast becoming viable options for fine wine in this new climate, with producers are always one step ahead of the curve.

Social sustainability

Sustainability is about more than preserving the environment. It is also about protecting workers and supporting local communities. Although the fine wine industry is not as advanced in this area as it is with environmental sustainability, frameworks and strong voices are beginning to emerge. As one wine producer puts it:

‘Do we farm organically because it’s better for the environment? Certainly. Do we farm organically because it makes better-tasting wine? Without question. But the most important reason to farm organically is because the lives of the people who work in the vineyards, and the people who live downstream, matter.’

Caring for the environment and biodiversity also has far-reaching effects on local life. Vineyards continue to play a vital role in the culture and traditions of their local communities. Recently the Comité Champagne proposed a series of tangible solutions to improve the lives of the region’s 120,000 harvest workers. We are also seeing a general trend of permanent contracts for employees, as well as a sharp focus on improving diversity at board levels. While there is certainly work to be done in this space, the general trajectory looks promising.

Stay tuned for Part II of our Fine Wine Sustainability Report, in which we discuss how fine wine can mitigate risk in sustainable portfolios – coming next week.

Categories
Learn

Navigating the 2023 fine wine market: the rise of Bordeaux amid global risk aversion

  • 2023 marks a notable slowdown in the fine wine market, with price corrections shadowing the bullish trends of previous years.
  • Burgundy and Champagne which led the market to its peak in 2022 are suffering the most.
  • Bordeaux has become a beacon for investors, gaining renewed interest due to its stability and reliability.

As the 2023 Liv-ex Power 100 unveils, a significant shift is evident in the fine wine market. This year marks a notable slowdown, with price corrections shadowing the bullish trends of previous years. Amidst this changing landscape, Bordeaux emerges as a beacon for investors, gaining renewed interest due to its stability and reliability. This article delves into the dynamics of the 2023 fine wine market, highlighting the rise of Bordeaux against a backdrop of global risk aversion.

Understanding the 2023 market slowdown

The fine wine market in 2023 has departed from the spirited activity of past years. After prices across many regions reached stellar levels in 2022, 2023 was a year of corrections. Trade by value and volume also fell, according to the 2023 Liv-ex Power 100 report. Despite more wine labels being traded, the overall number of individual wines traded (on a vintage level) has seen a decrease. This trend points towards a strategic shift towards higher quality wine investments, reflecting a more discerning market behaviour.

The softening of the fine wine market in 2023 can be attributed to a range of factors. Economic uncertainties and global financial market fluctuations have instilled a sense of risk aversion among investors. Inflationary pressures and rising interest rates have also played a role, impacting disposable incomes and investment capabilities. This economic climate has prompted a more cautious approach in luxury investments like fine wine. Additionally, changing consumer behaviours and preferences, along with geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, have further contributed to the market’s softening.

Regional patterns in 2023

In 2023, regional patterns in the wine market have become more pronounced. Burgundy and Champagne, which previously led the market to its peak, are now facing significant corrections. Burgundy has seen a reduction in its presence in the Power 100, while the Burgundy 150 index has fallen 15.4% year-on-year. Similarly, Champagne’s market has also softened, with the Champagne 50 index dipping 19.4%.

The rankings reveal a trend towards stability, liquidity, and relative value, which are prominently found in Bordeaux. This region has emerged as a beacon of resilience in the fine wine market, adding five wines to the Power 100 and benefiting from its reputation for consistent quality and reliable investment.

Conversely, California, while losing five wines in the ranking, managed to maintain its trade share, indicating a selective but sustained interest in its wines. This shift reflects a broader market inclination towards established regions and brands, suggesting a cautious approach by collectors and investors in a turbulent market.

As market dynamics evolve, regions like Italy and Spain are gaining traction, with brands like Vietti and Dominio de Pingus showing positive growth, further diversifying the landscape of investment-worthy wines. These regions are increasingly seen as offering valuable investment-worthy wines, attracting attention for their unique qualities and potential for growth.

The most powerful brands of 2023

In the realm of individual brands, certain names have demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability amidst the market downturn. Bordeaux’s Château Climens, for instance, has made an impressive leap in the rankings, rising from 353rd place in 2022 to 98th this year. This is a testament to its successful brand repositioning under new ownership.

Similarly, in California, brands like Opus One and Screaming Eagle continue to hold strong positions. Opus One, in particular, has risen dramatically, from 82nd in 2022 to 4th this year, signifying continued interest in top-tier wines from this region despite broader market challenges.

Despite facing a pullback Burgundy still has powerful players like Kei Shiogai, which took the top spot in terms of price performance, with its Market Price rising 185.7% year-on-year.

The strength of these brands lies not just in their historical significance or quality but also in their ability to retain high liquidity and trading volumes, essential in a market that is increasingly focusing on safer investments. This trend suggests that while the market is retracting in some areas, there remains a robust demand for wines that represent the pinnacle of their respective regions.

Adapting to the evolving wine market dynamics

As we navigate through the evolving dynamics of the fine wine market, it is clear that understanding and adapting to these changes is crucial for future investing. The trends of 2023, from the renewed interest in Bordeaux and the resilience of powerful brands, provide valuable insights into the market’s direction.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

Categories
News

The impact of Mouton Rothschild’s artist labels on market value

  • This Friday will see the artist label announcement of Château Mouton Rothschild’s 2021 vintage.
  • Over the last ten vintages, the average price increase in the month following the announcement has been 5%, signalling a potential investment opportunity.
  • The 2000 vintage illustrates the power of the special label, perfectly weathering market downturns.

Every year, Château Mouton Rothschild commissions a different artist to produce the label for their Grand Vin. The tradition began in 1945 when Baron Philippe de Rothschild decided to celebrate the end of World War II by creating a special label featuring a ‘V’ for victory, designed by Philippe Jullian. Since then, the list of alumni has included the likes of Salvador Dalí, Pablo Picasso, Joan Miró, Andy Warhol, David Hockney, Jeff Koons, Anish Kapoor, Lucien Freud, and Wassily Kandinsky. This Friday will see the label reveal of the 2021 vintage.

How has the label announcement impacted prices?

Over the years, this innovative approach has turned the Mouton Rothschild labels into a fusion of fine art and fine wine, making each bottle a highly desirable collector’s item. What’s more, prices for Mouton Rothschild have consistently increased in the month following the announcement.

The increase averages just under 5% over the last ten vintages. The 2012 vintage, with a label by Miquel Barcelo, rose the most, up 14.9%, followed by the Xu Bing’s 2018, up 12.6%. Last year’s label reveal of the 2020 vintage drove prices 8.6% higher in a month. There has been only one exception to this pattern with the 2015 vintage, down 4.3%. However, the wine is still up 11% since release.

In the last decade, prices for the brand, represented by our Mouton Rothschild index, have risen 44% on average.

Which are the best value labels today?

While there is a strong investment case for the Grand Vin, which vintages offer the best value today? The 2020 boasts 100-points from The Wine Advocate and is 13% cheaper than the other 100-point 2016 vintage. Its price rose 8.6% after the label announcement, which was designed by Peter Doig.

The 2021 is the most affordable recent release with a current Market Price of £4,400 per 12×75. However, given the trend of price rises post-announcement, one can expect potential changes.

Otherwise, buyers might wish to look back at the 2019 vintage, which received 100-points from Lisa Perrotti-Brown MW (The Wine Independent) and 97 points from Neal Martin (Vinous). The wine’s label, ‘The solar iris of Mouton’, was created by Olafur Eliasson.

The case of the 2000 vintage

If there is one special bottle that illustrates the power of art driving prices, it is that of the 2000 vintage. The bottle itself features an intricate gold engraving of the famous ram (Mouton) of the Rothschild coat of arms and stands out for its elegance and symbolic significance.

Mouton Rothschild 2000 weathered the Bordeaux market downturn of 2011-2014, when prices for the other First Growths fell sharply. The label continued to enjoy heightened demand in the Asian market, which only increased in 2015 – the year of the sheep, according to the Chinese zodiac. The wine has risen close to 750% in value since its release – an investment case that speaks for itself.

The innovative tradition of artist-designed labels by Château Mouton Rothschild not only merges the worlds of fine art and winemaking but also significantly elevates the market value, making them coveted treasures for collectors and investors alike.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

Categories
Learn

Price ratio: comparing regional First Growths

  • We compare the price performance of Château Lafite Rothschild to other regions’ respective ‘First Growths’.
  • The rising ratio highlights the increased value to be had in the Bordeaux First Growths.
  • Today, one can get 29 bottles of Lafite for the price of Romanée-Conti and almost five for Pétrus and Screaming Eagle.

How many bottles of Château Lafite Rothschild can one get for the price of other regions’ respective ‘First’ wines?

With changing market dynamics at play that have seen the balance between Bordeaux and other regions change, we examine the price ratio between some of the most popular investment-grade wines.

Below we compare the performance of the Bordeaux First Growth Château Lafite Rothschild to Burgundy’s highest echelon Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, the Super Tuscan Sassicaia, the Right Bank Château Pétrus, the Californian cult wine Screaming Eagle, and the most in-demand Champagne, Dom Pérignon. These are all wines that symbolise and even transcend their geography.  In the same way that Lafite has long been the mainstay of Bordeaux, the other wines are bellwethers for their regions.

The ratio between these wines is somewhat reflective of broader trends within their respective regions. Over the last decade, the ratio has risen consistently, highlighting the increased value to be had in the First Growths, as other regions gather momentum.

How many bottles of Lafite for the price of DRC?

Today, one can get on average 29 bottles of Lafite Rothschild for the price of Romanée-Conti. The ratio has risen considerably since 2013 when one could buy just 14 bottles of Lafite for one DRC. It peaked in December 2022, when it stood at 30:1.

As the chart below shows, the Domaine de la Romanée-Conti index hit a record high in December last year. Meanwhile, the Lafite index has not seen any of the price volatility witnessed by DRC. Year-to-date, prices for both labels have dipped but the fall has been sharper for DRC.

The DRC:Lafite price ratio is somewhat reflective of broader trends within their regions. In the last decade, Burgundy emerged as Bordeaux’s main contender. After Bordeaux peaked at the end of the China-led bull market in 2011, buyers started to seek out other corners of the fine wine world and it was Burgundy that attracted the greatest attention. The allure of rarity and quality meant that demand quickly outstripped already tight supply. Prices for Burgundy peaked, while Bordeaux ran quietly in the background.

For Bordeaux, the period between 2013 and 2015 saw contraction at the tail end of the Chinese correction. The market turned again in October 2015, and since then, Lafite Rothschild has been the second-best-performing First Growth, with some vintages doubling in value. However, it has not managed to catch up with Burgundy’s stellar rise.

Left vs Right Bank

It is also interesting to compare performance within Bordeaux’s Left and Right Bank. Today 4.6 bottles of Lafite gets you a bottle of Château Pétrus, up from 3, ten years ago.

As the chart below shows, Lafite and Pétrus have followed a similar trajectory up to September 2021, when prices for the First Growth flattened while Pétrus continued its rise.

Similar to Burgundy, rarity plays a key role in Pétrus’ appeal and investment performance. Pétrus is produced in much smaller quantities (around 3,000 cases per year) compared to Lafite (around 25,000 cases). Despite commanding a higher price tag, the wine has considerably outperformed Lafite in the last decade.

Dom Pérignon vs Lafite Rothschild

Recent years have seen a surge in Champagne’s market share and price performance. This has been reflected in the performance of its most traded label – Dom Pérignon.

Produced in much larger quantities than Lafite and more widely available, Dom Pérignon has started to catch up with the First Growth. In the last decade, the ratio between them has doubled – from 0.2 to 0.4.

Champagne prices, with Dom Pérignon at the helm, have made considerable gains since the early 2020s. In the last decade, our Dom Pérignon index is up 120%, compared to 20% for Lafite.

Sassicaia vs Lafite Rothschild

Similarly, the Super Tuscans have been getting more expensive. The most liquid and heavily traded group of Italian wines, their performance has been further boosted by critical acclaim and brand strength, with Sassicaia at the helm.

The ratio between Sassicaia and Lafite has risen from 0.2 ten years ago to 0.42 today.

As the chart below shows, Sassicaia has seen stable and consistent growth. 2019-2022 was a period of upheaval for the brand, which benefited from excellent vintages that captured investors’ interest.

Screaming Eagle vs Lafite Rothschild

The price ratio between Screaming Eagle and Lafite Rothschild tells a story of increased volatility, which can largely be ascribed to the Californian cult wine. Screaming Eagle has seen bigger price rises, followed by sharper falls.

Today one can now get 4.8 bottles of Lafite for the price of Screaming Eagle, up from 2.7 a decade ago. The ratio peaked in February 2022, when it stood at 5:1.

California has enjoyed serious investment interest which has been reflected in its market share. Today the region holds around 7% of the fine wine trade by value and is the most important New World player.

While Lafite has come to represent better value when compared to other top wines, this is largely due to shifting regional market dynamics. The First Growth continues to entice buyers with brand strength, high-quality releases and returns on investment.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

Categories
Learn

The rise of fine wine as a stable and sustainable investment

A version of this article written by WineCap’s CEO Alexander Westgarth was first published by Forbes.

  • A popular alternative investment, fine wine can plug the gaps left by struggling assets, helping to steady and raise performance across a whole portfolio.
  • As a tangible asset, fine wine delivers stability in uncertain times.
  • Part of the rising demand for fine wine can be attributed to environmental factors.

Between April 2020 and September 2022, the average bottle of fine wine rose 43.5% in value. While the fine wine market has dipped and corrected since, the general trajectory has historically pointed upwards.

Since 2004, Liv-ex data shows that the average bottle price tag has risen by 329.9%. While it can be a good investment, better still, fine wine is a great means to plug the gaps left by struggling assets, helping to steady and raise performance across a whole investment portfolio. Earlier this year, WineCap conducted a survey where we found that 92% of U.S. wealth managers believe demand for fine wine will increase over the next year. This is for three main reasons, and below we outline how to best take advantage of this asset’s potential for stability, sustainability and profitability.

Stability in uncertain times

We live in uncertain times. In the last year, businesses have had to cope with rocketing energy bills, inflation and interest rates. In times of hardship, people want something solid. This is why tangible assets like property, gold or fine wine tend to feel more precious during market downfalls. WineCap found that 56% of wealth managers invest in wine to add stability to portfolios across different market conditions.

It is not only wine. Across the entire investment landscape, there is an increased demand for reliability. In the past few months, gold prices have been rallying too. When the gold prices go up, this often indicates that investors are looking to preserve their wealth and shield it from market shocks.

At the same time, investors have been shying away from bullish investments like technology stocks. Apple, for example, has suffered significant dips. Microsoft shareholders have endured wobbly turbulence (though, at the time of this writing, the company is beating financial expectations). Likewise, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has been on a rocky ride over the past months.

As the choppy waters continue, many investors want steady ships to ride out the storm – not fancy speedboats. With its historically low volatility, fine wine delivers just that. Unlike stocks or bonds, fine wine prices do not tend to fluctuate massively as the market operates with its own dynamics. Regions like Champagne are currently seeing high levels of demand, not only because of the quality of the wines but the stability the region has historically offered.

Similarly, wines from Bordeaux, Tuscany and the Rhône may be more solid. However, not all fine wines are made the same. Extremely rare and highly coveted wines from Burgundy, for instance, can make a great investment but remain a riskier asset if stability is what you are after.

Demand for environmentally friendly assets

Our survey also found that investors are prioritising environmentally friendly assets, and 56% say they invest in fine wine because it is a sustainable asset class with a low carbon footprint. This trend is hardly surprising; 2023 has been the hottest summer on record.

Dozens of wildfires are actively blazing through the USA. Meanwhile, elsewhere, the excess water caused by melted ice caps means that flooding and torrential rains are washing away entire communities. In August, flash floods tore through Pennsylvania, killing five people. Naturally, investors are keen to put their money into assets that will mitigate some of the climate risks.

Part of the interest in fine wine can be attributed to environmental factors. Vines promote healthy soil quality and nourish pollinators, which are essential for biodiversity. A hector of vineyard soaks up a respectable 2.84 tonnes of carbon every year. The best winemakers use age-old sustainable practices. Many will even opt for a pony and cart rather than disturb the terrain with a tractor.

Some well-known organic producers include Burgundy’s Domaine Leflaive and the Bordeaux Fifth Growth, Château Pontet-Canet. While not officially certified, Burgundy’s Domaine de la Romanée-Conti also follows organic and biodynamic guidelines. Meanwhile, some producers are reducing bottle weight in pursuit of sustainability such as Burgundy négociant Albert Bichot, which has reduced the weight of their bottles from around 700 grams to 450 grams.

Climate-conscious investors can keep an eye out for wineries investing in a greener future.

Strong returns

According to our survey, almost half of the investors choose fine wine because they want strong returns. Historically, fine wine has offered generous returns over long periods without sacrificing quality or environmental qualities. Access to historical data, critic scores and current prices can help an investor identify whether a wine represents a good opportunity. Things to look out for include brand prestige, price per point, investment appreciation over different time frames and drinking windows. One can also get help from experts who understand the intricacies of the market, utilize the latest technology and closely follow the trends.

Stability, sustainability and profitability

Today’s investors are looking for stability, sustainability and profitability. Different from last year, they are often less prepared to invest in edgy technologies for the future. Instead, many are looking for solid investment results – ideally, ones they can hold. Fine wines fit this demand well. Although it already features in 45% of HNW portfolios, with average allocations of 13%, fine wine looks set to become even more popular. Like a classic vintage Champagne, the market is ready to pop.

Thanks to its diversity and growing attention from experts, producers and enthusiasts, fine wine could be well-placed to meet investors’ changing priorities in the years to come.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

Categories
News

Jeb Dunnuck’s top-scoring Southern Rhône releases

  • Jeb Dunnuck recently reviewed two vintages from Southern Rhône – the 2021 in bottle and 2022 in barrel.
  • He described 2022 as a ‘clear step up over 2021’.
  • Château de Beaucastel’s Châteauneuf-du-Pape Roussanne Vieilles Vignes 2022 received 100 points from the critic, and prices for the label have risen 60% in the last five years.

Last week, Jeb Dunnuck released his latest Southern Rhône report, reviewing the 2021 vintage from bottle and the 2022 mostly from barrel.

The critic observed that ‘the time of truly bad vintages is mostly over’ given ‘the advances in viticulture and winemaking’. This is especially true for ‘a region like the southern Rhône, which has so much flexibility with grape varieties and different terroirs’.

2021 – drinking rather than collecting

The 2021 Southern Rhône vintage was marked by devastating springtime frosts, which dramatically reduced yields. A cool, rainy year led to ‘forward and charming [wines], with mid-weight, linear, fresher profiles,’ according to Dunnuck.

Dunnuck said that ‘2021 is not a great vintage’ when tasted next to a top 2019, 2016 or 2010. While he commended the accessibility and finesse of the wines, which would be ‘loved by sommeliers’, the critic noted that ‘it’s not a vintage to seek out or buy in massive quantities for the cellar’.

2022 – checks in ‘behind the greats’

Dunnuck described the 2022s as ‘a clear step up over 2021s’. He noted that the vintage bears some similarities ‘to 2020 and 2011, if not a more linear, mid-weight version of 2009’. For him, ‘2022 looks to check in behind the greats of 2019, 2016, 2010, and 2007’.

However, the critic concluded that ‘the divergent styles throughout the region make 2022 a difficult vintage to describe in broad statements, so it’s a vintage that readers will need to approach on an estate-by-estate basis’.

Dunnuck’s top-scoring wines across both years can be seen in the table below.

Across both years, Jeb Dunnuck found perfection in one wine – Château de Beaucastel’s Châteauneuf-du-Pape Roussanne Vieilles Vignes 2022. Awarding it 100 points, he called it ‘pure Beaucastel magic’. Average prices for the label have risen 101% over the last decade, and 60% in the last five years.

The Rhône’s investment performance in 2023

Prices for the top Rhône labels have been falling this year. Across the Liv-ex 1000 regional sub-indices, the Rhône 100 has experienced the biggest decline, down 18.1%.

However, young vintages like 2019 and 2020 have been in demand. Moreover, some wines from Southern Rhône such as Château de Beaucastel Châteauneuf-du-Pape Blanc have been on an upward trend, rising 32.8% on average.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

Categories
News

Cautious optimism for Australian wine amid tariff review

  • Australia and China have agreed to a suspension of their ongoing dispute over the steep tariffs imposed on Australian wine since November 2020.
  • The tariffs had a profound impact on demand and price performance of Australian wine.
  • Australia’s best price performers have risen over 40% in value in the last year.

Australian wine tariffs under review

In a significant shift that could redefine trade relations between Australia and China, the two nations have agreed to a suspension of their ongoing dispute over the steep tariffs imposed on Australian wine since November 2020. This development comes ahead of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s forthcoming trip to Beijing, marking a potential thaw in the trade tensions that have severely impacted Australia’s wine industry.

While the Chinese government has consented to an expedited five-month review of the punitive duties, which have plummeted Australia’s wine exports from over $1 billion to a mere $12 million, there remains a cautious optimism. Despite this progress, industry experts predict that even if the tariffs are promptly revoked, the Australian wine sector, which has undergone substantial restructuring in response to the lost Chinese market, would still require approximately two years to recuperate and effectively redistribute its current surplus.

Impact on Australia’s wine investment market

The Chinese tariffs, ranging from 180% to 200% on Australian wine imports, had a profound impact on Australia’s budding secondary market. The country has historically been the second most important fine wine player from the New World after the U.S., enjoying greater demand than South Africa, Chile or Argentina.

After a record-breaking year of trade in 2020, Australia’s investment market shrank in 2021. The number of different Australian wines traded on Liv-ex declined 32.2% year-on-year, as demand decreased.

Fewer wines from Australia made it into the rankings of the most powerful brands in the world. Australia’s leading label, Penfolds Grange, dropped in the 2021 Power 100 rankings, from fifth in 2020 to 45th place in 2021. In last year’s edition of the rankings, the wine fell further – from 45th to 55th place, while Henschke exited altogether. Part of the reason is that Penfolds has historically been heavily reliant on the Chinese market. In an attempt to rebuilt tariff-hit business, earlier this year Treasury Wine Estates, owner of Penfolds, announced the introduction of its first China-sourced premium wine.

Australian wine price performance

Since the tariff introduction, prices for some of the top wines have dipped, creating pockets of opportunity. For instance, the average price of Henschke Hill of Grace is down 4% in the last year; similarly, Penfolds Bin 707 is down 9%. While their trajectories are different, the long-term growth trend remains, with over 90% rise in the last decade.

Some Australian brands have seen impressive price performance despite the ongoing trade tension. The table below shows the five best performers on Wine Track in the last year, which have risen between 31% and 41% on average. Clarendon Hills Brookman Syrah leads the rankings, with an average price per case of £1,042. Two Hands Aphrodite has been the second-best performer, up 39%.

The cautious optimism for Australian wine will likely affect its secondary market performance. As demand rises, so will prices. It remains to be seen if a potential tariff suspension will bring back the momentum to a region that has quietened down in the last three years but nonetheless remains an important New World representative.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

Categories
Report

Q3 2023 Fine Wine Report

Our Q3 2023 report has now been released. The report examines mainstream market performance, the best buying opportunities in fine wine, releases from La Place de Bordeaux and the latest industry news.

Report highlights:

  • Investors leaned towards liquid assets like cash amidst the struggle between the Federal Reserve and inflation, contributing to an environment steeped in risk and uncertainty.
  • Q3 witnessed a marked slowdown and potential bottoming out of fine wine prices, with the Liv-ex 100 index showing modest signs of recovery.
  • The fine wine market morphed into a buyer’s market due to stock availability and dipping prices, especially visible in regions like Champagne.
  • The La Place de Bordeaux campaign, amidst an eleven-month market decline and global economic uncertainties, mirrored the earlier En Primeur campaign in its inability to energise the market, with offerings often misaligned with trade expectations.
  • Wines like Almaviva 2021 and Masseto 2020 stood out, providing relative value for money and showcasing a strong price performance history.
  • Investors should be looking at ‘pockets of opportunity’ where there is brand strength, value and liquidity.
  • Demand is likely to pick up in Q4 with Christmas around the corner and exciting vintage releases on the horizon.

Click below to download your free copy of our quarterly investment report.