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How UK and US investors react to tariffs

  • Wealth managers in both the UK and US anticipated increased demand for equities, real assets, and alternatives amid shifting trade policy landscapes.
  • US respondents showed stronger confidence in alternative assets, while UK managers leaned more toward traditional equities and property.
  • Fine wine was viewed in both markets as a resilient, inflation-resistant asset with long-term appeal, especially in portfolios seeking diversification.

With President Donald Trump back in the White House, global markets have once again entered a period of trade policy uncertainty. In late May 2025, the administration proposed sweeping 50% tariffs on European Union imports, initially planned for June 1 but now delayed until July 9 following negotiations with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The move echoes earlier policy cycles that disrupted cross-border commerce, and while implementation remains uncertain, it has revived conversations about portfolio resilience and asset class performance under changing geopolitical conditions.

In our Wealth Management survey earlier this year, investors across both sides of the Atlantic were asked to consider how a renewed focus on domestic trade policy and market protectionism might shift capital allocation preferences. Their responses revealed an appetite for assets considered resilient, global, and responsive to consumer growth.

A recalibration of confidence across core and alternative assets

Across both markets, wealth managers projected increased demand for a wide range of asset classes, albeit with slightly different emphases. In the United Kingdom, demand was strongest for traditional equity exposures, particularly US stocks (94%) and emerging markets (90%), reflecting a continued belief in global growth opportunities despite the shifting trade backdrop. Property and non-US developed stocks also garnered attention, as did cash and bonds – indicating a balanced appetite for both growth and defensive positions.

*UK

In the US, the tone was more expansive and optimistic. US stocks topped the list at 98%, with similarly high sentiment for non-US developed markets (92%), cash (90%), and emerging market equities (86%). However, American wealth managers also showed a greater inclination toward alternatives – digital currency (88%), real estate (80%), startups (76%), and luxury collectibles (74%) all ranked notably high. This suggests that, even in the face of policy shifts, US investors were inclined to look for opportunity amid change, particularly in sectors with strong long-term narratives or tangible value.

*US

A nuanced position for fine wine and luxury assets

Fine wine and other luxury collectibles were not among the top-tier asset classes in the survey but nevertheless held their own as part of a well-rounded diversification strategy. 

While only 58% of UK respondents expected an increase in demand for luxury collectibles compared to 74% in the US, both figures reflect a belief in the long-term value of tangible, non-correlated assets – especially during periods of policy uncertainty.

Historically, fine wine has performed well in such climates. Its low correlation with traditional financial markets, combined with intrinsic scarcity and global appeal, positions it as an attractive option for wealth preservation. 

US respondents in particular noted that if Trump’s policies were to echo those from his previous term – most notably tax cuts that increased disposable income among high-net-worth individuals – then demand for luxury goods, including fine wine, could grow in tandem with consumer confidence.

Inflation resistance and tangibility remain key themes

Another through-line in both markets is the recognition that tangible, inflation-resistant assets may offer stability when macroeconomic or policy environments shift. While digital assets and equities continue to dominate discussions, the inclusion of fine wine and real estate in both countries’ top ten expected demand growth areas suggests a common view: that real, finite goods still hold a trusted place in long-term strategies.

This sentiment aligns with broader investment trends of the past five years, during which fine wine has steadily gained credibility as an alternative asset. From a performance standpoint, it has demonstrated resilience through downturns and delivered attractive risk-adjusted returns over the long term. And as more platforms offer increased liquidity and data transparency, fine wine is becoming more accessible to wealth managers seeking both diversification and durability.

Looking ahead

While our survey preceded the most recent tariff developments, the views it captured reflect a broader mindset already taking shape among global investors. As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, and with the potential for further policy changes, these pre-existing preferences offer a lens into how wealth managers may continue to allocate in an evolving geopolitical environment.

For fine wine in particular, its dual role as both a passion asset and a portfolio stabiliser could prove increasingly valuable. Whether driven by renewed domestic consumption or a search for global, inflation-resistant stores of value, fine wine appears poised to remain a quiet but meaningful part of the wealth management conversation on both sides of the Atlantic.

Looking for more? See also: 

WineCap Wealth Report 2025: UK Edition

WineCap Wealth Report 2025: US Edition

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The impact of trade wars and tariffs on fine wine investment

  • As an internationally traded asset, fine wine is affected by economic and political factors including trade wars and tariffs.
  • Demand for certain wines and regions can shift as tariffs directly impact pricing, availability and liquidity.
  • Diversification and strategic investment are key to navigating the fine wine market amid trade wars and tariffs.

Over the past two decades, fine wine has transitioned from a luxury product to a well-established internationally traded investment asset. Like any asset enjoying global demand, fine wine is subject to the economic and political forces that shape international trade. 

Legislative decisions, such as changes in taxation and import duties, can directly impact its pricing and accessibility. Trade wars, tariffs, and protectionist policies further add layers of complexity, affecting demand, market stability, and ultimately, investment returns. This article explores how these trade factors influence the fine wine investment market and what investors need to consider.

How trade wars affect wine demand and pricing

Trade wars often involve the imposition of tariffs or import duties on goods traded between countries, which can create a ripple effect across industries and markets. When tariffs are imposed on wine, they can create price volatility, limit access to certain markets, and reduce liquidity, which can impact the investment performance of the affected wines and regions.

For example, in the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, wine has frequently been a target for tariffs. In 2019, the USA imposed a 25% tariff on certain European wines in response to a dispute over aircraft subsidies. This tariff included wines under 14% alcohol, impacting popular wine-producing regions such as France, Spain, and Germany, but excluded Champagne and Italy. As a result, Champagne and Italy took an increased market share in the US; when the tariffs were lifted, Bordeaux and Burgundy enjoyed an immediate uptick.  

Market impact of the 2019 US tariffs on European wine: In 2019, Bordeaux accounted for 48% of the US fine wine market on average, according to Liv-ex. From October 2019 to the end of 2020, Bordeaux’s average share of US buying fell to 33%. Burgundy’s share also declined – from 13% before the tariffs to 8%. Conversely, demand for regions exempt from the tariffs rose significantly during this time. Champagne rose from 10% to 14%, Italy from 18% to 25% and the Rest of the World from 4% to 10%. Regions exempt from the 25% US tariffs also saw the biggest price appreciation in 2020. For the first time on an annual basis, Champagne outperformed all other fine wine regions. This led to its global surge. 

Market impact of the 2020 Chinese tariffs on Australian wine: In 2020, China imposed tariffs on Australian wine amid a series of blows to Australian exports, which had a profound impact on Australia’s budding secondary market. Since the tariff introduction, prices for some of the top wines dipped, creating pockets of opportunity. For instance, the average price of Henschke Hill of Grace fell 4%, while Penfolds Bin 707 went down 9%. Since the tariff suspension earlier this year, Australian wine is coming back into the spotlight. 

When it comes to pricing, tariffs can drive up the end cost of imported wine, particularly impacting markets where fine wine demand is driven by consumers with limited domestic alternatives. When tariffs make imported wines prohibitively expensive, consumers may turn to other regions or domestic products. 

From an investment perspective, the unpredictability of trade policies requires a strategic approach that accounts for potential regulatory changes in key markets.

Strategic wine hubs in tariff-influenced markets

In response to tariffs, some regions have positioned themselves as strategic wine trading hubs by offering tariff-free or reduced-tariff environments for wine trade. Hong Kong, for example, abolished its wine import duty in 2008, aiming to become the “wine trading hub” of East Asia. 

This decision has proven instrumental for the fine wine market in Asia, as investors from mainland China and other countries can access European wines without the additional costs that would apply if purchased domestically. As a result, Hong Kong has emerged as a leading location for wine auctions and a key destination for collectors and investors in Asia.

The role of trade agreements

For regions with established wine industries, trade agreements and economic alliances play a significant role in shaping wine tariffs and market access. The European Union, for instance, has trade agreements with multiple countries, allowing for reduced tariffs on wines imported from places like Australia and Chile. However, Brexit has introduced new complexities, as the United Kingdom – one of the largest fine wine markets – now operates independently from the EU. 

For investors navigating the fine wine market amid trade wars and tariffs, diversification and strategic storage are essential. Diversifying across different wine regions and vintages can help minimize exposure to trade barriers affecting specific countries. 

Additionally, storing wine in bonded warehouses can mitigate the risk of sudden tariff impositions on wine imports, preserving the asset’s value. Monitoring geopolitical developments is also crucial, as policy shifts can happen quickly and have immediate effects on wine prices. 

While trade wars and tariffs present complexities, they also create opportunities in the fine wine investment market. In a politically charged landscape, understanding the influence of trade policies on wine markets is critical. By staying agile and responsive to policy changes, investors can better navigate the complexities of wine investment in a globalised yet fragmented market.

Want to learn more about fine wine investment? Download our free guide.

 

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Penfolds to Produce Special Made-in-China Bottling

Penfolds is Treasury Wine Estates’ most iconic brand. Its most sought-after bottling is undoubtedly ‘Grange’ which is revered by wine lovers and collectors the world over and has received a wealth of 100 point scores, rave reviews and awards since its first official vintage in 1960.

China is an important market for Treasury Wine Estates and its Penfolds wines are in high demand. However, due to the eye-wateringly high tariffs (up to 200%) that were imposed by Beijing in November 2020, its exports to the country are down by 26%. 

In order to supply its wines to China as smoothly as possible in future, Treasury Wine Estates has found a way to bypass the tariffs: by growing grapes and making wines domestically to create ‘Penfolds China’. The international drinks company has been experimenting with viticulture in the western province of Yunnan in the Ningxia and Shangri-la regions and is happy with the results of its ‘primarily Cabernet-based’ wines so far, as Chief Executive Officer Tim Ford commented: ‘China is an emerging fine winemaking region and we’re confident we can produce a premium Chinese Penfolds that maintains the distinctive Penfolds house style and uncompromising quality’.

Penfolds is expected to release this new wine in the second half of 2022 and each bottle will reach between A$30 – A$50, as reported by Bloomberg.

This isn’t the first time that Penfolds has looked to foreign shores in order to push winemaking boundaries. It launched Penfolds California last year, with a series of wines made in Napa from Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz. ‘Quantum’, its top cuvée, was released at £545, 10% higher than Grange in the UK. Interestingly, its parent company has also acquired vineyard holdings in Champagne and Bordeaux.

All eyes are sure to be on China, Champagne and Bordeaux over the coming months and years as the fine wine world waits to see which other innovative and ground-breaking wines Penfolds releases from both established and emerging wine regions.