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The art of diversification: can fine wine create it?

  • Diversification is a risk management strategy that involves spreading investments across various financial instruments, sectors, and regions.
  • It is not just about different sectors and asset classes but also about different revenue streams.
  • Fine wine can serve as a practical alternative investment, providing portfolio diversification and being a hedge against inflation.

Understanding diversification

Diversification, often referred to as the only ‘free lunch’ in investing, is a cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. At its core, it is a risk management strategy used in investing where one spreads their investments across various financial instruments, sectors, and regions.

The goal of diversification is to mitigate risk by reducing the negative impact of a poor-performing investment on the overall portfolio. This is achieved by investing in assets that are not perfectly correlated. In simpler terms, when some investments are down, others may be up.

Debunking the diversification myth

A common myth in investing is that diversification only means investing in different sectors, asset classes, and locations. While these are significant aspects of diversification, it is not the whole story.

The essence of diversification is about establishing multiple revenue streams. The importance of different revenue streams cannot be overstated. The reason being, if one stream suffers due to economic downturns or sector-specific issues, the impact on the total income is cushioned by the performance of other streams. It is all about not putting all your eggs in one basket.

For instance, consider an investment portfolio that has stocks, bonds, and real estate investments. Even if the stock market faces a downturn, the bond market may still perform well, and rental income from real estate could continue to provide stable income. This way, different revenue streams ensure the portfolio remains balanced and resilient in the face of volatility.

Fine wine: an alternative avenue for diversification

When we talk about diversification, alternative investments often come into play. These can range from art and antiques to cryptocurrencies and fine wine. Fine wine as an asset class for investment purposes has been gaining traction over the past decade.

Fine wine offers several attractive characteristics as a diversification asset. It is tangible, finite, and its value tends to increase with age, making it a useful hedge against inflation. Moreover, the performance of wine as an asset class does not necessarily correlate with traditional financial markets, providing the much-needed diversification.

In periods of financial crisis, where traditional stocks and bonds may underperform, alternative investments like wine often remain steady or even appreciate. This is partly because they are driven by different demand dynamics – for example, the increasing global appreciation of fine wines, especially in emerging markets.

Investing in wine also offers the potential for impressive returns. A well-chosen wine portfolio can deliver strong performance over time. You can now see the best and worst performing wines over the last year on Wine Track.

Diversification within fine wine

Diversification also exists in the fine wine market. All wines are not made the same. Wines from different regions can deliver varying returns so it is important to have a broad understanding of the market dynamics that may affect performance over time.

For instance, rare Burgundies are known for delivering exceptional returns; however, the entry point tends to be higher, prices are more volatile, and the wines are harder to source. Bordeaux and the Rhône tend to offer greater stability at lower price points, but returns might not be as impressive.

Moreover, different factors may affect performance: while Champagne prices tend to exhibit greater correlation with age – as the wines mature, prices rise – the Bordeaux market tends to be influenced by critic scores and vintage quality. Scarcity, demand and supply, significant events, critic rankings, changes in ownership and the ‘death effect’ are other fine wine specific factors that can affect the performance of different regions.

In conclusion, while diversification may seem like a complex concept, it is a fundamental strategy in managing risk and ensuring the growth of your investment portfolio. Whether it is stocks, bonds, real estate, or fine wine, the idea is to spread out your investments, thereby creating different revenue streams to safeguard against market volatility. With its unique characteristics, fine wine offers an exciting opportunity to achieve portfolio diversification.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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The role of wine ratings in fine wine investment

  • Wine ratings play a crucial role in wine investment, with high scores from influential critics impacting demand and market value.
  • To use ratings effectively, investors should consider both the initial score and potential for growth.
  • The Wine Track score provides a broader view of a wine’s quality across multiple vintages and publications, helping investors assess wines at a glance.

For many investors, fine wine offers a fascinating, enjoyable, and potentially profitable venture. However, the wine market is highly nuanced, requiring a keen understanding of various factors influencing wine values. One such factor, critical to successful wine investment, is the wine rating system. This score, given by wine critics to a particular bottle or vintage, can dramatically impact its market value and demand.

Wine ratings, typically on a 100-point scale, offer a quantitative measure of the wine’s quality. The ratings of influential critics such as Robert Parker, Neal Martin and Wine Spectator can have a significant impact on the market value of a wine. This is why savvy investors pay close attention to these scores, as they can quickly identify high potential investments.

The power and influence of ratings

However, it’s not enough to simply buy wines with high ratings. The rating system is far more nuanced, with the potential for dramatic shifts in a wine’s rating over time. A wine may be rated in its youth, then again as it matures. In some cases, a wine’s rating may increase as it develops, making it an excellent investment if purchased early. Conversely, a wine that doesn’t mature as expected can see its rating (and value) drop.

How critics have moved the wine market

Some historical examples illustrate the power that critics wield in the wine investment market:

  • Robert Parker and the 1982 Bordeaux vintage: Parker’s high scores for the 1982 Bordeaux wines went against the grain of other critics, and as the wines matured and proved him right, their market values soared.
  • James Suckling and Super Tuscan wines: Suckling’s high scores and positive reviews in the 1980s and 90s for these non-traditional Italian wines helped elevate their status and market prices.
  • Jancis Robinson and Austrian wines: Robinson’s praise for the quality and complexity of wines from Austria increased their international profile and market value.
  • Robert Parker and Napa Valley: Parker’s positive reviews of Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon and Bordeaux blends in the 1990s contributed to increased demand and higher prices for these wines.
  • Wines Spectator’s Wine of the Year: Wine Spectator, one of the most influential wine publications globally, selects its “Wine of the Year” based on quality, value, availability, and an X-factor they call “excitement.” The wine usually becomes a hot commodity in the secondary market, breaking all-time trading record within the day of the announcement, like Marques Murrieta Castillo Ygay Gran Reserva Especial 2010 in 2020.

Knowing the critics and selling wine

To use ratings effectively, investors should consider both the initial score and potential for growth. Some wines, especially those from renowned producers in prestigious regions like Bordeaux or Burgundy, are consistently well-rated and have a history of aging well. However, there are also opportunities to find “sleeper” wines – those with moderate initial ratings that improve significantly over time.

A key part of understanding and using wine ratings is understanding the critics. Each has a different palate and preference, and their ratings reflect these tastes. Robert Parker, for instance, was known for favouring bold, robust wines from Bordeaux, California, and the Rhône. However, since Parker’s retirement, the wine criticism landscape has been undergoing a gradual shift, reflecting changing consumer preferences and a growing appreciation for diversity in wine styles, such as lighter and lower-alcohol wines.

The Wine Track score – ratings at a glance

Now it is also possible to access a brand’s average score thanks to the Wine Track score. The Wine Track score provides a broader view of a wine’s quality across multiple vintages, which can be particularly useful for potential investors seeking a more comprehensive evaluation of a wine’s investment potential.

It aggregates multiple wine vintages of a wine to create a score out of 100. It unifies more than 100 wine critics’ scores from 12 global publications that use different methodologies. By providing a combined score, it helps investors assess wines on the fine wine market at a glance.

In conclusion, while wine ratings are not the sole determinant of a wine’s investment potential, they play an integral part in the wine investment strategy. With careful consideration and a well-rounded understanding of the wine market, investors can utilise these ratings to guide their purchases and optimise their portfolios.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

 

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Navigating the fine wine market: insights for savvy investors

A version of this article by WineCap’s CEO Alexander Westgarth was first published in Forbes.

  • Fine wine has been traded for millennia although its popularity as an investment is more recent.
  • The fine wine market’s stability compared to stocks make it an effective volatility smoother, preserving wealth during market downturns.
  • Investors should consider factors such as illiquidity risk, storage costs, and insurance coverage, while positioning wine as a complementary asset within a diversified portfolio.

The world of fine wine has long captivated investors with its timeless allure. Wine appreciation and collection is one of the oldest practices; the ancient Greeks, Egyptians, Phoenicians and Romans were all big traders of wine. Perhaps the first evidence of wine investment in the more traditional sense can be found in the writings of Thomas Jefferson, America’s third president. In 1787, he wrote that the 1786 vintage for top Bordeaux wines cost 1800 livres per tonneau compared to 2000 livres for the older 1783.

Today, the fine wine market is gaining popularity, not just among oenophiles; investors and wealth managers are looking to reap the benefits of this diverse asset class. New participants are eager to ensure they avoid potential pitfalls and make informed investment decisions. This article provides some of the key considerations for successful wine investing, showcasing the market’s potential at a glance.

Wine as a hedging asset

When constructing a well-rounded investment portfolio, it is crucial to consider the inclusion of fine wine as a hedging asset. Fine wine has a historical track record of retaining and increasing its value, even during periods of economic recession or financial uncertainty. Recent years are a case in point. While the world grappled with pandemics, wars and inflation, fine wine enjoyed an incline. Over the last half-decade, the average bottle of fine wine has increased in value by a notable 45%, according to the Liv-ex 1000 index.

Certain wines did exceptionally well over the pandemic. The standout players were Burgundy, Champagne and Bordeaux. At the start, fine bottles of Burgundy were selling for just under £200 (May 2020). But within two and a half years, average prices soared to over £325 (September 2022)—a return of 62%.

There are several reasons why wine tends to buffer against market shocks. Firstly, as a physical asset, it is less sensitive to inflation – just like property, gold or excellent art. Secondly, the market is private. Buyers are often high net worth or ultra-high net worth individuals, so they are wealthy and passionate. Thirdly, it is a rare and depleting asset.

The scarcity factor of fine wine makes it increasingly valuable over time. As purveyors open bottles, the demand outweighs supply and prices can soar. For instance, Domaine Leroy’s Nuits-Saint-Georges’ Aux Lavieres has experienced a remarkable 353% increase in value over the past five years, driven by its scarcity.

Wine can smooth out volatility

An excellent wine must be enjoyed slowly. In the same way, the wine market tends to move at a more gentle pace too. While stocks can sky-rocket or plummet in weeks, wine movements often take months. This can add much-needed stability to investment portfolios.

Wealth managers have harnessed the volatility-smoothing properties of wine to offset the erratic performance of other assets. Even a modest allocation of up to 10% can significantly reduce overall portfolio volatility and act as a valuable tool during market downturns. When inflation rockets, it can also help to preserve some of the wealth eroded through bonds and cash-like instruments.

Liquidity, storage and insurance considerations

Potential investors should be mindful of the illiquidity risk associated with wine investments. While the wine itself is a liquid asset, the investment tends to lack immediate liquidity. Investors should carefully assess their liquidity needs before embarking on a wine investment journey. Those who might need quick access to cash may want to include some cash-like investments like T-Bills or Bank CDs in their portfolio.

A buy-and-hold strategy typically yields the best results in wine investment. Selling too early can result in missed opportunities for substantial profits, especially when considering the maturity of the vintage. While digital platforms offer relatively quicker selling options, physical auction routes may take longer but can still deliver favorable outcomes.

Investors must also factor in the costs associated with wine investments. Unlike investing in public markets, fine wine incurs additional expenses such as secure storage and temperature control. Investors may also consider insurance, particularly when transporting wines between locations. Although these costs are generally affordable, it is advisable to research storage options, seek reviews, and negotiate insurance coverage within annual fees.

In the United Kingdom, fine wine investments often benefit from exemptions from capital gains tax. This favorable tax treatment can offset storage costs multiple times over, further enhancing the investment’s attractiveness.

Investing soberly

While the potential for substantial returns in fine wine investment is evident, it is crucial to navigate the market with prudence and awareness of potential pitfalls. Investors should maintain sufficient liquidity in their portfolios to handle unforeseen emergencies and consider the long-term costs associated with wine investments.

The key to successful wine investing lies in positioning wine as a hedging asset and volatility smoother within a broader array of assets. Although an exceptional bottle of wine holds its own allure, it should not overshadow the rest of the portfolio. Wine should be viewed as a stable and valuable component, working harmoniously with other investments to help investors achieve their long-term financial goals.

With careful consideration of market dynamics, wine’s inherent hedging properties, and a prudent approach to investment, investors can embrace the timeless elegance of fine wine while capitalising on its investment potential.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Bonds vs fine wine: what should you invest in?

  • Both bonds and fine wine can help to mitigate short-term risk in a portfolio.
  • After ten years the average bond delivers a 15% return, while fine wine – 78%.
  • Fine wine is an inflation-resistant asset, unlike bonds.
  • Bonds are generally much more liquid than fine wine.

Bonds are one of the most popular ways to invest. For decades, investment managers would opt for a strategy known as “60/40”, where 60% of the portfolio was allocated to equity and 40% to debt instruments. The idea was that the riskier equity (stocks and shares) would shield against inflation while helping to generate returns. By contrast, the more stable debt instruments (bonds and credit) would ground the portfolio and prevent it from plummeting during market downturns.

However, a lot has changed since then. Today, many experts comment that the 60/40 rule no longer applies. Instead, investors need to diversify much more to achieve more market stability. And they need to go further afield – into alternative assets – to find true inflation resistance.

In this article, we’ll compare the risk, value drivers, return, liquidity, and inflation characteristics between bonds and fine wine.

Both wine and bonds can mitigate short-term risk

Bonds come with many different risk levels. Some borrowers – like fledgling start-ups – are extremely likely to default. While there are others – like the governments of developed nations or blue-chip companies – that are almost definitely going to meet the repayments.

Occasionally investment managers will opt for extremely risky debt – known as a High Yield Bond strategy. But generally, most will allocate a greater portion of the portfolio to low-risk bonds, which tend to be rated AAA or Aaa by specialist agencies. This is usually to anchor the portfolio and help bring in stable fixed income.

Like bonds, fine wine is also generally a low-risk investment. Because the value is intrinsic, it is unlikely to plummet overnight. After all, fine wine will always be valuable. No matter what’s going on in the stock market, somebody will almost always want to buy it.

Investment managers will often add a small allocation to fine wine to help preserve wealth and mitigate risk. We have noticed that the wealthier the client, the higher the proportion tends to be. So, ultra-high net worth (UHNW) individuals and family offices generally have more fine wine in their portfolios.

The sources of value are different

While AAA bonds and fine wine may have similar risk levels, their revenue sources couldn’t be more different.

Investors make money from debt instruments like bonds by collecting the repayments from the initial sum, plus interest (the extra interest is known as “coupons”). With bonds, investors get regular revenue, which is why the asset falls under the category of “fixed income”. The repayments and coupons are usually paid quarterly.

By contrast, fine wine investors generally need to wait until they have sold the cask or bottle before they can access any returns. However, the returns are usually much more lucrative than bonds.

Wine has a stronger return profile

The average annual return of a bond is 1.6%. Usually, bonds will last for longer than a year though. Short-term bonds are around three years, mid-term is about five years and long-term is anything over a decade. Over ten years, investors gain an average of 15% returns. This means that if you invested £1,000, you could expect to get around £1,150 back.

One of the useful things about a bond is that investors should be able to clearly know how much they will get in advance. This is because the repayment terms and interest are already agreed upon, it does not depend on the ebbs and flows of market sentiment.

Like bonds, fine wine can also take some time to realise its return potential. But, on average, it’s much more profitable for investors than bonds. Figures from the Liv-ex 1000 index show that the average bottle of fine wine already brings returns of 23% after two years. After five years, that increases to 34%, and after ten to 78%. So, if you had invested £1,000, you could expect to get back £1,780%.

Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 ten years

You can follow how specific bottles have performed over the past decade with Wine Track.

Bonds are more liquid than fine wine

There are two main ways to invest in bonds. You can buy them on the primary market and lend money directly to borrowers, or you can trade bonds on the secondary market. In the secondary market, the new buyer will then own the debt and pick up the repayments. This makes bonds quite liquid, meaning they are fairly easy to sell and turn into cash if you suddenly need the money. For publicly traded loans (rather than private debt) you should usually be able to sell a bond and expect the money in your bank account within a week.

Fine wine investors also have a primary and secondary market, but the process of trading is not usually so quick. For the best results, investors should wait until the wine matures before selling. But this can mean that the money is locked-up for months or years at a time. Some vintages, for example, can take upwards of twenty years to peak. If you sell early, you could miss out on valuable returns.

Before investing in wine, always consider your liquidity needs. It can be helpful to add-in some cash or cash-like investments into your portfolio in case you need to access funds quickly.

Fine wine is more inflation-resistant than bonds

Inflation occurs when the value of money decreases. Usually, this is because a central bank (like the Bank of England) prints more money to help the economy overcome a crisis, known as Quantitative Easing. While this measure may help to prevent a recession, sooner or later it usually needs to be reversed. When the economy is red hot, central banks normally need to hike up the interest rates to cool things down again. This can be painful for debt investors, and especially those holding long-term bonds.

Imagine that in 2019, you bought a ten-year bond to lend £1,000. At this time, the bank rate was set at 0.75%. Today (in 2023), you would still have six years left on your bond, but the bank rate has soared to 4.5%. The borrower will still be paying you the rate that was agreed in 2019. You could be paying more for your own mortgage or credit card than you’re getting back from your investment.

What’s more, the initial sum is becoming worth less by the day as high inflation of 8.7% grips the economy. If the inflation continues, by the time the bond is repaid, that £1,000 is the real value equivalent of just £740.55 today.

The downside of investing in bonds is that they don’t really protect you from inflation, especially over the long term.

Fine wine, on the other hand, is a good example of an inflation-resistant asset. Over the years, the value of precious bottles tends to keep up or even outpace Quantitative Easing.

There are many reasons for this. First and foremost, it is a physical asset like property and art, which acts like a wealth store. It is rare and depleting. Furthermore, the passionate and global market usually keeps prices at a healthy level.

The best approach is probably a mix of investments

As Nobel-prize laureate Harry Markowitz famously quipped, “Diversification is the only free lunch in finance”. This philosophy marks the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. The idea is that you should invest in as many different revenue sources as possible to mitigate against risk. This means that for most portfolios there should be a blend of equity, debt (like bonds), alternative investments (like fine wine), real estate and some cash. Usually, the allocation to cash is about 5%.

Both bonds and fine wine have different investment characteristics. The trick is to use them in the most beneficial way to investors. For example, if you’re looking to grow your wealth over the long-term, fine wine is probably a better option. However, if you’re looking to generate regular income, investing in bonds could be a better bet.

There are interesting examples of bonds and fine wine working together within retirement portfolios. Fine wine is increasingly used as a growth generator to boost the investor’s wealth at the start of their pension journey. Meanwhile, bonds normally provide stable and regular income after the investor retires.

 

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

 

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The pairing of old wine and new markets: demographic shifts and emerging trends

A version of this article by WineCap’s CEO Alexander Westgarth was first published in Forbes.

  • The wine investment landscape has evolved significantly, with younger, international buyers increasingly shaping the market.
  • Growing global demand has made the market more liquid, transparent and efficient.
  • New investors are exploring assets beyond traditional stocks and bonds such as wine and other collectibles.

The image of the traditional wine investor is changing. Gone are the days of gentlemen with monocles and fur coats. Today, the reality of who purchases fine wine may surprise you.

In this article, we explore the changing demographics of wine buyers and highlight modern investment trends for wealth managers looking to incorporate wine into their portfolios.

Shifting demographics: younger generations enter the market

The average wine buyer has become considerably younger in recent years. Jamie Ritchie, Head of Wine at Sotheby’s Auction House, said that in the 1990s the average wine buyer was 65. However, according to a 2021 report, only 7% of wine buyers are now over 60, while 37% are under 40. Nearly 270 millennials and Gen Zs placed the winning bid for Sotheby’s finest wines and spirits.

This shift is particularly relevant for wealth managers, as fine wine aligns well with younger investors who have long-term investment horizons. Most fine wines have potential for ageing – a good Bordeaux, for instance, can be cellared for 50+ years. This can add stability to an investment portfolio. Over the past two decades, the average price of fine wine has risen 380%, suggesting a potential for continued growth as demand increases and supply diminishes.

The liquidity challenges of wine investment

While investing in fine wine offers long-term benefits, one should not ignore the liquidity aspect. Younger investors may require quicker access to funds, which poses a challenge as wine can take time to trade. Selling wine investments prematurely may result in missing out on substantial profits. Wealth managers should, therefore, consider diversifying portfolios by combining fine wine with other liquid assets, such as cash-like securities, blue-chip stocks, and bonds. Striking the right balance between illiquid and liquid investments is key to maximising returns.

Global appeal

The international appeal of wine has grown significantly over the past two decades. According to Sotheby’s Wine & Spirits Market Report 2021 referenced earlier, North American bidders have been drawn to the market to make up nearly half of Sotheby’s new buyers.

This could be partly attributed to the power of currency. On the first day of 2021, 1 pound was worth $1.37. But by mid-December, it had zigzagged down to $1.32. As the green bills swelled in purchasing power, fine wine (usually denominated in sterling) grew increasingly tempting to U.S. investors. Today sterling continues to weaken against the dollar. As of June 7th 2023, 1 pound costs $1.24.

Additionally, Asian buyers now make up 52% of wine sales at Sotheby’s, with American investors representing 18%, and Europe (primarily split between the UK and France) accounting for the remaining 30%.

Growing global demand for wine offers some serious advantages for existing investors. As well as bringing in more potential buyers, the value of fine wine tends to rise above regional shocks. As the market base grows, the market becomes more liquid and efficient, improving price transparency.

A thirst for inflation-hedging and nostalgia

Historically, fine wine has been difficult to access. Investors needed to be deeply entrenched in elusive private markets. Owning an investment portfolio at all was generally reserved for the wealthy few.

But today, spurred by a boost in financial literacy and digital investment platforms, new groups are entering. Alongside wine, today’s digital investors are adding cultural timepieces like iconic shoes, sweaters, watches and even Legos to their portfolios. This could be partly due to nostalgia but it could also be the result of an astute investment strategy.

Historical data shows impressive returns for collectibles, with sneakers generating over 2,000% returns and Swatch timepieces delivering over 7,000%. One in-depth study found that from 1987 to 2015, Lego collectibles delivered returns of at least 11%.

Considering the anticipated high interest rates, low growth, and volatility of 2023, physical assets can serve as a hedge against inflation. While certain collectibles may be speculative, wine and art have demonstrated a history of hedging against economic downturns.

Leveraging online investment platforms and adapting to investor preferences

Wealth managers can leverage online investment platforms to access performance data, bid-ask spreads, and forecasts. They can also purchase wine directly and handle everything from storage to auctions digitally.

As the investor landscape changes, wealth managers should explore assets beyond traditional stocks and bonds. Incorporating alternative investments, such as wine, can help diversify and enhance portfolio performance. Furthermore, incorporating passion assets that resonate with younger investors, such as sustainability-focused investments and items reflecting their values, can strengthen client relationships and attract the next generation of investors.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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The role of technology in fine wine investment: From blockchain to AI

tech and wine
  • Technology has revolutionised various aspects of the wine trade, from ensuring provenance to streamlining valuations.
  • From blockchain to AI and data analytics, these advancements can improve transparency and efficiency.
  • Wine investment tools like Wine Track help investors spot opportunities and discover relative value.

In the rapidly evolving landscape of fine wine investment, technology has emerged as a transformative force, revolutionising various aspects of the industry. From verifying provenance to streamlining valuation processes, advancements such as blockchain and artificial intelligence (AI) have played a crucial role.

This article explores the impact of technology on fine wine investment, delving into blockchain-based provenance verification, AI-driven wine valuation, and digital marketplaces that are shaping the industry’s future.

Blockchain-based provenance verification

One of the significant challenges in the fine wine market is verifying the authenticity and provenance of bottles. Counterfeit wines can undermine investor confidence and erode market trust.

However, blockchain technology has emerged as a powerful tool to address this issue. By creating a decentralised and immutable ledger, blockchain allows for the transparent recording of a wine’s journey from vineyard to consumer.

Each transaction and transfer of ownership can be documented, ensuring a reliable and verifiable record of a wine’s provenance. This technology provides investors with greater confidence in the authenticity and quality of their investments.

However, applying blockchain to tangible assets like wine has some complexities. Unlike virtual transactions, the wine trade involves physical goods with unique characteristics and specific storage requirements. Bottles can be removed from cases, stored improperly, and tax status may vary, posing challenges for a fully distributed ledger system. Despite the existing challenges, blockchain holds significant potential in creating a more secure and trustworthy wine trade ecosystem.

AI-driven wine valuation

Accurate and reliable wine valuation is essential for investors seeking to make informed decisions. AI-powered tools and algorithms are transforming the wine valuation process, leveraging vast amounts of data to generate precise and timely assessments.

By analyzing factors such as vintage, producer, critic ratings, market trends, and historical sales data, AI algorithms can provide sophisticated valuation models. These models offer investors insights into the potential appreciation or depreciation of specific wines, enabling more informed investment strategies.

Digital marketplaces

Digital marketplaces have disrupted traditional fine wine trading by providing a platform that connects buyers and sellers in a transparent and efficient manner. These platforms leverage technology to facilitate secure transactions, streamline logistics, and expand the reach of the market.

Online marketplaces allow investors to access a global network of fine wines, enabling diversification and providing a more extensive selection to choose from. Additionally, these platforms often offer tools for researching wines, comparing prices, and tracking market trends, empowering investors with valuable information to make informed investment decisions.

Fine wine investment tools

One free tool that helps investors is Wine Track. Wine Track is a comprehensive fine wine index that enables investors to identify investment grade wines, spot trends and wine investment opportunities.

The tool uses daily wine price data from multiple sources, tracking over 75,000 investment grade wines. It indexes the prices of multiple vintages of a given wine, and aggregates critics’ scores, to provide a clear overview of a wine’s investment track record.

The tool also highlights the best and worst performing wines over different time periods, and includes a ‘price per point’, which is a clear indicator of relative value to help investing in wine.

Wine Track

Data analytics for market insights

Data analytics has become crucial in fine wine investment, offering investors valuable insights into market trends and patterns. By analyzing vast amounts of data from multiple sources, including auction results, critic ratings, and global demand patterns, investors can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics.

Data-driven insights enable investors to identify emerging investment opportunities, track the performance of specific wines or regions, and make informed decisions based on historical market trends.

Technology has significantly influenced the landscape of fine wine investment, providing investors with enhanced transparency, efficiency, and analytical capabilities. Digital traceability ensures wines reach the right hands, while AI-driven wine valuation leverages data analytics to generate accurate and timely assessments, guiding investment decisions. As the wine trade continues to adapt the latest technology, investors will be able to navigate the market with greater efficiency and confidence.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Diversifying retirement portfolios: Why pension fund managers are turning to fine wine

pension funds
  • Pension funds have increased investment in alternative assets like fine wine by 25% over the past two decades.
  • Fine wine provides stability and intrinsic value for pension planners, as it is unaffected by geopolitical events or high inflation levels.
  • Fine wine has delivered impressive returns of 40.3% over the past five years, making it an ideal asset for retirement planning and diversification.

Change is in the air. As both the bond and equity markets get shaken by turbulence, pension fund managers are increasingly turning to alternative assets, to hedge against economic shocks. According to one report, pension funds around the world have increased their exposure by 25% over the past two decades. The New York Teachers Retirement System, for example, is plunging a whooping 35% of money into alternative investments.

Private equity, property, hedge funds and commodities are among the most enduring alternative assets. However, little by little, institutional investors are dipping into collectibles like fine wine too. One of Canada’s mightiest pension funds, The Public Sector Pension Investment Board, recently acquired 35 iconic vineyards. Goldman Sachs has also been investing heavily in wineries, with a focus on medium and longer-term returns.

In this article, we’ll unveil what’s making wine so appealing to managers today, and how investors could use this unique asset to bolster their own retirement funds.

Fine wine’s intrinsic value is reassuring for pension planners

Unlike most other investments, wine’s world-famous flavors are not impacted by geo-political events or high inflation levels. Instead, they are affected by storage and temperature.

This gives investors – including fund managers – a welcome sense of reassurance. While they may have no control over the stock market, they can ensure that the wine is well cared for.

Over the decades, retirement planners can rest assured that their wealth is not subject to the twists and turns of the stock market. Instead, it comes from the intrinsic value and exquisite quality within the bottle. This can help to mitigate risk and offer valuable diversification.

Investors can find a bottle to match their retirement timeframe

One of the greatest appeals of fine wine is how it improves over time. Naturally, it’s an asset that complements decades-long investment strategies, like retirement plans.

As our CEO, Alex Westgarth, recently commented for Forbes, ‘Fine wine pairs well with younger investors with long-term horizons. A good Bordeaux, for example, can age up to 50 years. This can add a certain stability to your portfolios’.

An excellent wine will always be in high demand as it reaches maturity. And there will almost always be a passionate buyer willing to pay premium prices.

A great advantage for pension planners is that they can probably find a bottle on the market to match their retirement timeframe. While some wines might be best opened in fifty years, others may need just five. Finding the right wine for your unique timeframe can help you to hedge against market losses and meet your investment goals.

With time, premium bottles become rarer

As poet, playwright and novelist, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe famously quipped, ‘Life is too short to drink bad wine’. Ultimately, the asset is made to be enjoyed. People open investment grade wine to celebrate occasions or present as gifts. And, with time, certain vintages will become harder and harder to find.

When demand outstrips supply, prices increase. That’s another reason why long-term investments in wine can be a sensible alternative asset for pension planning.

As the climate crisis continues to impact vineyards, the scarcity factor is likely to further increase prices. The delicate and unique flavors in already-bottled wine could be the last of their kind within just a few years. This will further reduce supply.

Meanwhile, demand is growing by the day. The past decades have seen an impressive rise in Millennial and Gen-Z buyers. Sotheby’s have even noticed the average purveyor’s age shrink from over 60 to under 40.

What’s more, the vast surge of digital advancements are also bringing in new generations and groups of wine buyers.

If demand continues to grow, the tightening supply should lead to a continued increase in value.

Fine wine has an impressive record of beating inflation

There are several reasons why most pension funds begin by investing in equities. It’s partly because managers can afford to take on more risk with longer timeframes. But it’s also to avoid the devastating effects of inflation. Unlike cash, bonds or other debt instruments, equity is generally more inflation-resistant.

Fortunately, fine wine shares this same inflation-resisting quality. This could make it a strong contender for a pension investment plan.

Fine wine has a history of beating inflation. Since 2021, for example, while the UK has endured inflation rates of over 10%, the Liv-ex 1000 index has risen 33%.

During the middle and final investment years – when the pension pot is most at risk of inflation erosion – a healthy allocation to wine could help mitigate the risk.

Fine wine has a history of strong returns

Over the past five years, the fine wine has delivered returns of 40.3%, according to the Liv-ex 1000 index. What’s more, despite the incredibly erratic market, overall performance has been smooth and steady.

This makes fine wine a strong contender retirement planning. Fine wine has both growth and value characteristics, making it well suited for most pension plans.

How can fine wine be incorporated into a pension?

Usually the best way to add wine into private pensions – like workplace and Self-Invested Private Pensions (SIPPs) – is to speak to a financial advisor. This is because they can help you structure the fund in the most tax-efficient way.

When it comes to taxes, fine wine already has a head start. Fine wine is exempt from Capital Gains Tax. Because of this, your advisor may prefer to leave it out of a SIPP altogether and use the tax perks on other assets instead. But probably they would seek to allocate a proportion of fine wine into your overall retirement plan as a hedging asset or long-term growth generator. As an inflation-resistant and illiquid asset, wine generally lends itself to retirement planning well.

If you’d like to find out more about which wines could best suit your pension goals, we’d love to talk to you.

 

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How fine wine hedges against economic shocks: In four graphs

fine wine index
  • Fine wine’s value tends to increase when stock markets fall, making it a great hedge option for investors.
  • Fine wine is proving to be a better portfolio hedge than gold which is showing greater correlation with the stock market in recent years.
  • As a precious and depleting asset, wine tends to rise above local shocks and is generally less impacted by cost-of-living pressures.
  • Fine wine has outpaced inflation since 2021, making it a resilient asset to hold in turbulent times.

There is a lot going on in the economy, and most of it is not good. Major financial institutions buckle under high interest rates. Central banks are forced to rethink policies. Inflation continues to flirt with double digit levels. And the stock market lurches from one position to another as world events unfold. According to JPMorgan’s Q2 outlook, ‘2023 looks overwhelmingly likely to be a year of disappointing growth and ongoing adjustment’. Yet, fine wine is generally standing tall, experiencing little to zero negative performance.

In many situations, the value of fine wine has even climbed. As CityAM recently reported, ‘while it might not usurp stocks as the backbone of investors’ portfolios anytime soon, wine is providing some stability and solace amid the turmoil’.

In this article, we’ll uncover how fine wine is reacting to today’s tense economy and why.

The value of fine wine tends to increase as markets go down

Fascinatingly, the value of wine tends to increase as the stock markets fall. One of the most notable examples was during the financial crisis of 2008. Over autumn, the world economies went into shock. Within six months, the great S&P 500 had plunged by 52%.

S&P finance

Source: Yahoo Finance

Yet, while the world’s stock prices zig-zagged downwards, one asset class held up remarkably well. Fine wine (shown in the graph below in red) did not suffer any major downturns. On the contrary, it seemed to have a negative correlation to the stock market. Fine wine prices soared.

Liv-ex 1000 vs S&P 500

Time and time again, fine wine has outperformed when the stock market is sinking. This is because of four essential characteristics.

Most recently, fine wine delivered investors double digit returns over the COVID-19 pandemic and global lockdowns. Between April 2020 and September 2022, the asset shot up a staggering 43.5%.

This makes fine wine an extraordinary hedging option for investors. When stocks are tumbling, a reasonable allocation to wine can help to smooth out the overall performance and absorb losses.

Today, fine wine is a better portfolio hedge than gold   

The current economic environment is unsteady. Understandably, global asset managers are now looking to buffer against some of the market shocks by increasing their allocations to alternatives and hedging instruments.

One of the most popular choices is gold. According to UBS’ latest report, ‘we are also most preferred on gold and recommend holding it as a portfolio hedge in the current uncertain times’.

However, over the past couple of years, fine wine has started to beat gold at its own game. Since Covid-19, the prices of gold have become more correlated to the prices of the stock market. Looking at the graph below, the performance of gold (in orange) is becoming increasingly aligned to the stock market (for example, the S&P 500 shown in yellow). By contrast, the value of fine wine (red) is the least aligned.

Liv-ex 1000 vs S&P 500 vs Gold

When it comes to hedging against a turbulent economy, wine is coming out on top. Some economists are now beginning to question if fine wine is the new gold.

Since 2021, the performance of fine wine has outpaced inflation

The US inflation rate is gradually coming back to an almost-reassuring level. At the time of writing (May 2023), it sits at 4.98%, down from 8.54% in 2022. But it’s more than double the target rate.

In the UK, it’s not looking so good. Inflation now sits at a nerve-wracking 10.06%, meaning that purchasing power is rapidly draining from the pound. At times like this, it’s generally better to hold long-term wealth in assets rather than cash. Physical assets like property, precious metals and fine wine are especially resilient to inflation risk.

Below is a graph showing the UK’s inflation rate over the past five years. Since 2021, it has soared to double digits.

If we compare this to the average performance of fine wine in the same time frame (using the Liv-ex 1000 index), wine hasn’t just kept up with inflation. It has beaten it more than three-fold. Between 2021 and 2023 UK inflation rose by just under 10%. By contrast, the average performance of fine wine has increased by 33%.

There are several reasons why wine is so good at outpacing inflation. Firstly, it’s a global asset so it tends to rise above local shocks. When the pound loses value, Asian or American investors tend to step in. The wine markets are generally private too. This means that the groups of buyers tend to be very wealthy and sophisticated investors, who are less impacted by the cost of living pressures. They’re generally less swayed by rumors or economic turbulence too.

Perhaps most significantly, wine is a precious and depleting asset. It grows in value and scarcity over time, which will almost always outpace inflation levels.

Overall, wine is a useful asset in a turbulent economy

There are so many reasons for turbulence in the economy. Wars, pandemics, political tensions, inflation or the climate crisis to name a few. Yet, the last few years have shown us that fine wine tends to increase in value during these historical moments.

Global demand for investment grade wine outstrips supply more and more every day. As our CEO Alex Westgarth recently explained for Forbes Business Council, wine investors are younger, edgier, and more international than ever. Whichever way you look at it, wine and economic turbulence tend to pair well.

As the markets continue to stride forward into uncertainty, it’s a good moment to reconsider alternative assets and hedging strategies.

Discover seven more delicious benefits to investing in fine wine

WineCap’s market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

 

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Banking failures and the fine wine market: Performance during economic uncertainty

Banking crisis
  • The US banking crisis has been the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis and has created uncertainty in mainstream markets.
  • Revisiting key moments in the history of fine wine investment offers valuable insight into the future of the market.
  • A key difference between fine wine and equities during the last financial crisis was the speed of recovery.
  • The fine wine market is braced for challenges due to its diversity as the performance of different wines and vintages can balance a portfolio.

The recent banking failures have been the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis. Since the beginning of March, regulators have shut down three mid-size US banks – Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic. In Europe, Swiss giant Credit Suisse was rescued in an emergency deal with rival UBS, which purchased it at a fraction of its closing market value. UBS itself suffered losses during the acquisition – it slid 13% before making a recovery.

While the news echoes the last financial crisis, governments have been providing reassurance that this is not history repeating itself. The current turmoil is partly down to the sharp increase in interest rates, which was aimed to curb inflation.

Still, the banking collapse has had an immediate effect on investor confidence and mainstream markets. European bank shares remain volatile, while US stock markets opened flat this week. Alternative assets and safe havens such as gold and treasuries have enjoyed a boost, as investors have been considering low-risk assets to put their money.

Reflecting on how the fine wine market has performed during previous challenging macroeconomic events could offer valuable insights into what to expect in the current uncertain environment.

The fine wine market during the 2008 financial crisis

Like other markets, fine wine experiences cycles.

fine wine performance

During the previous financial crisis, the fine wine market suffered a downturn, but it fared better than some other traditional investments such as equities and real estate. Between June 2008 and June 2009, the Liv-ex 100 index, which was heavily weighted towards wines from Bordeaux, fell 18.8%.  Meanwhile, the broader Liv-ex 1000 index, which includes greater number of wines from other regions, dipped 7.4%.

The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index, which tracks the performance of luxury assets including fine wine, recorded similar figures, with the value of investment-grade wine declining 15% in 2008. By comparison, the S&P 500, a benchmark index of US equities, fell over 37% the same year.

A key difference between fine wine and equities during the financial crisis was the speed of recovery. While the stock market took several years to recover to its pre-crisis levels, the fine wine market turned bullish relatively quickly. By the end of 2009, investment-grade wine had returned to its pre-crisis levels, and by 2010, it had surpassed its previous peak.

Moreover, the performance of fine wine during the financial crisis varied between different regions and vintages. While the Bordeaux market was hit particularly hard, Burgundy and the Rhône performed relatively well.

The fine wine market – braced for challenges

The fine wine market of today looks very different from the shape it had fifteen years ago. There are more investable wines than at any other point in history. If Bordeaux accounted for 90% of the market in 2008, today its share sits at 35%, due to the emergence and the proven investment potential of wines outside this dominant French region.

The diversity of this portfolio diversifier has helped it get through swiftly through other more recent challenges, such as Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on most European wines, and the Covid-19 pandemic.

For instance, Italy and Champagne, which were exempt from the US tariffs, enjoyed steady price appreciation in 2019, while Burgundy suffered. Throughout and after the pandemic, Burgundy and Champagne turned into the top-performing regions.

California also enjoyed rising prices in 2021, and its index hit an all-time high in September last year.

Bordeaux has been moving quietly and steadily, and its relatively mild performance over the last five years has turned it into a region that can offer value for money, especially in ‘off’ vintages.

regional fine wine investment

Factors influencing the performance of fine wine

The fine wine market is different from other markets and operates with its own dynamics, such as rarity and exclusivity. Its unique characteristics make it less vulnerable to market shocks and economic downturns than financial markets.

Indeed, its historic performance has shown very low correlation to mainstream markets. As a tangible good that cannot be traded as quickly as stocks, fine wine is generally insulated from rapid price changes.

In general, prices move based on supply and demand, critics’ scores, vintage quality, age and brand appeal. Find out more about fine wine investment here, or explore the performance of individual brands on Wine Track.

 

WineCap’s market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Five low-risk assets to hedge against inflation

Low-risk assets against inflation
Low-risk assets against inflation

As purchasing power slowly drains, investors with low-risk tolerances are feeling the sting. At the time of writing (May 2023), UK inflation sits at an uneasy 10.1%. With the average savings account interest at a flimsy 0.23%, cash is going backwards. Meanwhile, high inflation munches away the future value of bonds and debt like a deranged Pac-Man. This represents a real problem for wealth managers. In a constantly shifting sea of interest hikes, inflation, and market shocks, how can they maintain and strengthen lower-risk portfolios without going too overweight on equity? How can they keep the cautious risk profile intact without endangering returns?

This article examines five overlooked assets for cautious investors, which have a history of punching back against inflation.

Gold

In the fight against inflation, physical gold is surely Mohammad Ali. Gold tends to increase in value as inflation rises. According to World Gold Council data from the past 50 years, when inflation is above 3%, the gold prices jump by 14%.

This asset class has the added benefit of being universally accepted. Unlike interest-generating assets or fine wine, precious metals can be included in Shariah portfolios.

Not only is gold inflation-resistant, but it is also classed as a low-risk asset, which must be a welcome relief for low-risk investors. Arguably, gold is even less risky than cash, as its value is intrinsic.

However, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t bubbles and market corrections. Over the past years gold’s performance has shown more volatility alongside the public markets.

Fine wine

There are several reasons why fine wine kicks back against inflation. It’s a physical asset. The market is global and wealthy, often relatively unaffected by market shocks. Plus, buyers are usually passionate, so they are unlikely to panic-sell. Perhaps most importantly, bottles are unique, and they deplete over time.

The steady returns can help to smooth overall portfolio volatility and reassure clients. According to an index that tracks the performance of 1,000 fine wines from different regions (Liv-ex 1000), investors have benefited from average returns of 40.3% over the past five years. By contrast, the FTSE 100 delivered just 4.8%. You can see the performance of your preferred wines here.

However, there are downsides. Although wine shields against inflation, it can be difficult to sell quickly. For clients who need to urgently access funds, this asset might not be ideal. What’s more, clients only realise returns after they sell. Unlike with bonds and shares, investors cannot enjoy gains and stay invested.

One solution for wealth managers could be to offer a mix of assets with different liquidity. For example, by combining fine wine, gold and inflation-linked bonds in one portfolio.

Sustainable energy

As the prices of raw materials tend to be the first to rise, commodities are often used to predict and hedge against inflation.

Traditionally this asset class includes oil and non-renewable energy sources. But with the rising regulations and scientific warnings, this may not be a wise or future-proof investment anymore. The EU, for example, is in the process of amending the Energy Efficiency Directive so that 45% of all European energy will be renewable by 2030. The Green Deal also imposes carbon taxes on dirty providers. Already, around 29% of the world’s energy comes from clean sources, and that figure is likely to increase over the long term.

While green energy can be higher risk, it’s not as precarious as non-renewables. In the same way that whale oil plummeted in 1860, investors left holding fossil fuel stocks in twenty years’ time could find themselves with stranded assets.

Inflation-linked bonds

Unlike other debt instruments, inflation-linked bonds are pegged to the recorded inflation levels. So, even in high-inflationary environments, they should retain their value.

A huge advantage of inflation-linked bonds is that they can usually be traded quickly. This could be helpful for wealth managers looking to balance out the illiquidity of fine wine or property.

However, the success of these assets hinges on the accuracy of the indices. Sometimes the consumer goods selected and measured can lead to artificial results. For example, the UK index contains DVD players and MP3 players. These are probably cheaper than they would have been a decade ago, but it is not because inflation is lower.

Affordable property

Property is a classic inflation-resistant investment. But what kind should today’s cautious investors go for? Property addressing the UK’s housing crisis could be fruitful. Despite strong demand, there is currently a shortage of over 4 million homes.

Another interesting area for low-risk investors to consider could be affordable student accommodation. Applications to universities tend to rise during recessions. After 2008, they increased 31% in the UK. And since 2020, they have reached record-levels. KPMG anticipate a 16% increase in the number of undergraduates searching for rooms by 2030.

The risk is relatively low, as in many cases, the accommodation will be handled and managed by the university itself. Yields for investors average at around 5% for London-based lets and 4% for accommodation outside the capital.

But a word of caution, the buy-to-let market is becoming less lucrative every day, with high interest rates and increasing regulations. In the current climate, some are wondering if the money would be better placed elsewhere.

Chartering a new course

Record-levels of inflation are transforming the investment landscape. What made sense yesterday no longer adds up today.

This article aims to help spark ideas for wealth managers. It presents five potential lower-risk investments, that also have famous inflation-shielding qualities.

As wealth managers re-balance portfolios and seek new assets, they can also make the world a better place. Now is the ideal time to incorporate social and environmental factors into the investment strategy. After all, to truly future-proof portfolios, we need a healthy planet.

Discover five ways fine wine investments are good for the environment.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.