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How to use fine wine as a hedge against inflation

fine wine hedge against inflation
  • Fine wine can effectively hedge against inflation, often outperforming traditional assets like gold and stocks.
  • Investment in fine wine requires consideration of personal ethics, liquidity needs, and a long-term strategy.
  • Strategic timing in fine wine investment, such as early purchases, can lead to significant profit taking.

Since 1914, the price of bread has seen inflation of around 11,000%. In the roaring 20s, a loaf cost under a penny. Fast forward to today, the average bread costs around £1.35. This price rise is not due to an increase in the quality of bread but rather a reflection of the decreasing purchasing power of money over time. In the words of the French writer and Burgundy lover, Hugo Voltaire, ‘Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero’.

As well as playing havoc with our savings, inflation can be the undoing of fixed-income investment portfolios too. Unless the interest rates outpace the loss of purchasing power, repayments will be worth less and less each year. In these tense economic times, investors may be tempted by hedge funds and hedging assets like derivatives. While these can offer reassurance, they’re also complicated and expensive. So-called ‘safe haven’ assets like gold and property are also effective inflation-hedges. But right now, they are trading at a premium. This article explores an alternative option: fine wine as a hedge against inflation risk.

Assess your inflation exposure in your investment strategy

If you invest in liquid and fixed-income investments like cash or bonds, your wealth is probably exposed to inflation. This tends to be more typical for those closer to retirement, as they may need access to regular funds. Start by identifying these assets in your portfolio. Pay close attention to bonds which last more than five years, as the interest payments (or coupons) could be more at risk of losing value over time.

Once you’ve identified the riskiest assets, refer to your strategy. There may already be a plan for how to deal with periods of high inflation. Most managers will build-in hedging assets from the beginning. But many will also deviate from the strategy tactically from time to time. For example, in high inflation environments, they might sell some bonds and buy stocks – known as going ‘overweight’ or ‘underweight’ from the original allocations. This is what you may need to do if you have too much inflation risk in your portfolio. Depending on your financial needs, fine wine could be a sensible alternative investment for you.

Consider if fine wine is right for you

Fine wine is a truly excellent hedge against inflation. However, it may not be suitable for everyone. If you do not want to invest in fine wine because of religion or personal reasons, you should follow your ethics. Wine is not the only inflation-resistant asset, and you may be better suited to art, luxury watches and collectible cars.

You should also consider your liquidity needs. Fine wine is a long-term asset with intrinsic value. Investors can only collect returns after the bottles have been sold. And for the best results, that could take upwards of five years.

Investors should also be aware that fine wine is traded on the private market. Nowadays, this is much easier than it used to be. Instead of attending physical auctions and joining exclusive clubs, you can find fine wine investment platforms online.

Find a wine to suit your time horizon

The value of fine wine typically increases with age. Investors often buy fine wine at least five years in advance, with some opting for En Primeur purchases.

In this world, timing is everything. And if you can get it right, you stand to make a handsome profit. Over ten years, Domaine Arnoux-Lachaux Nuits-Saint-Georges Rouge, for example, has delivered returns of 525% and counting.

Before you begin, consider carefully what type of time horizon you are comfortable with. Ideally, you’re looking to plug the inflation gaps in your portfolio, without landing yourself into an illiquidity issue. For example, if you’re concerned about the inflation risk of some five-year bonds, you could look into ‘brands on the move’ that have historically delivered faster returns.

Understand the fine wine market

Fine wine attracts a diverse range of buyers, from enthusiasts to those purchasing for business or personal milestones. Understanding buyer motivations and regional preferences is key to strategic investing. Seasonal trends, like the heightened demand for Champagne towards the end of the year, also play a role in maximising returns.

A precious and depleting asset with intrinsic value

If you’re looking to shield your wealth from the erosive effects of inflation, fine wine could be the answer. It is a precious and depleting asset, with intrinsic value. As one academic paper recently found, ‘fine wine has outperformed almost every other major financial index over the past two decades’. However, to get the best results, you’d probably need to buy, hold and think long-term.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Q4 2023 Fine Wine Report & 2024 Outlook

WineCap Q4 2023 report

Our Q4 2023 report has now been released. The report offers a comprehensive overview of the fine wine market in the last quarter and a forward-looking perspective for 2024. In a landscape marked by correction and repositioning, it delves into the dynamic interplay of market forces, unveiling both challenges and opportunities for investors.

Report highlights:

  • The fine wine market is navigating 2024 amidst a correction phase, presenting a chance for strategic repositioning.
  • Fine wine prices (Liv-ex 100 index) experienced a 4.2% decline in Q4, reflective of market adjustments amid global economic uncertainties.
  • Increased risk aversion has redirected focus to classic wines and regions, with Bordeaux emerging as a standout beneficiary.
  • Bordeaux’s resurgence, driven by liquidity and a solid reputation, underscores the market’s adaptability to changing dynamics.
  • The upcoming high-volume Burgundy and Bordeaux En Primeur campaigns present opportunities for strategic investment, with pricing strategies holding the key to success.
  • Investors, seeking value and consistency, anticipate potential opportunities in the evolving landscape.
  • As an improving asset in diminishing supply, their emphasis should remain on long-term gains.

Click below to download your free copy of our quarterly investment report.

 

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Burgundy 2022: a promising vintage in a challenging market

  • The 2022 vintage boasts high quality and quantity – ‘the largest crop in 23 years’.
  • It is being launched in a downward market, following ten months of consistent price declines.
  • As demand has tempered and stock has (re-)entered the market, the success of the upcoming releases will largely depend on pricing.

Burgundy’s 2022 vintage is being launched in a downward market, following ten months of consistent price declines. The success of the upcoming releases will largely depend on pricing, but will its quality and quantity have the potential to turn the tables?

Critical opinions on Burgundy 2022

Critic reports thus far have been overwhelmingly positive, applauding both the quality and the quantity of the vintage. 2022 marks the largest crop in 23 years, with some producers seeing double the yields of the previous year. According to Matthew Hayes (JancisRobinson.com), ‘across the whole of Burgundy, 2022 offered a whopping 75.4% more wine (red, white and crémant) compared with 2021’.

Contrary to expectations, the vintage produced wines with typicity, purity, and freshness despite the extreme weather. Hayes commented that ‘2022 was the second-hottest year that the Côte d’Or has endured this century and should logically have followed in the footsteps of the equally stifling solaire years of 2019 and 2020, producing wines with rich, deep fruit profiles and vibrant acidities to ensure long life but […] the wines show a generally impeccable balance of tidy, ripe fruit, discreet acidity and equally (and mostly) refined tannins’.

Hayes revealed that ‘the best-sited and best-rooted vines appeared to have coped well with the heat and in the Côte d’Or the excellence of the top premiers and grands crus shines clearly’.

The prevailing opinion is that 2022 is an excellent year for white wines, reminiscent of 2017 and 2020. Meanwhile, tasting notes from the Côte de Beaune and Côte de Nuits highlighted dense red wines with well-integrated tannins, simultaneously offering elegance and concentration. The wines are expected to be approachable in youth but with significant ageing potential.

However, the market onto which they are released is just as important as the releases themselves.

The current market for Burgundy

In October 2022, the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index reached an unprecedented peak, marking a staggering 809.4% increase since its inception in December 2003. Twenty years later, Burgundy remains the best-performing fine wine region.

However, since its peak, prices have tumbled 17.4%. This decline has been attributed to various macroeconomic factors that led to a shift in investor sentiment. As the economic landscape became more uncertain, fine wine buyers have grown increasingly risk-averse, causing a contraction in demand for more volatile investments.

This trend was particularly pronounced in Burgundy, which had soared too high across the whole spectrum. At these stratospheric prices, the market saw more sellers than buyers, with investors keen to liquidate their stock. Top-tier Burgundy (re-)entered the market as sellers were looking to make gains.

This perception of increased risk and a preference for stability among investors led to a decrease in Burgundy’s trade share by value. The falling prices further exacerbated this trend.

Burgundy fine wine prices

The market conditions present a challenging backdrop for the high-quality high-quantity Burgundy 2022 En Primeur campaign. Will the excitement of the new be enough to stimulate demand?

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Can fine wine investment balance crypto volatility?

Cryptocurrency
  • 31% of Brits are setting resolutions to organise their finances in the new year.
  • One of the most talked-about investments – cryptocurrency – attracts with the potential for high returns but also carries high risk.
  • Offering smoothness and stability, fine wine can balance crypto volatility.

As we welcome in the new year, 31% of Brits are setting resolutions to organise their finances. For many this will mean investing. But where should they invest? And how risky is too risky?

In this article, we dive into one of the most talked-about high-risk investments – cryptocurrency. We explore the pitfalls and what investors can do to mitigate them. We also look at how fine wine – our favourite asset – can complement volatile investments like crypto to help smooth overall performances.

11,000 cryptocurrencies… and counting

Most people are familiar with Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two most popular digital coins. However, there are nearly 11,000 cryptocurrencies, with more issued every day. Some are eye-wateringly volatile. At the time of writing, for example, KILT-USD has jumped nearly 25% in just three months. Meanwhile, others are much steadier.

StableCoins are considered the sturdiest as their market value is pegged to mainstream fiat currencies like the US dollar. This means that their worth should – in theory – be the same as the everyday money in our wallets. But the reality can be different.

StableCoins and de-pegging events

Even the most trusted StableCoins – Tether, USD Coin, Multi-Collateral Dai, Binance and USDP dollar – stray away from the dollar value from time to time, known as ‘de-pegging’.

SPGlobal identified 13 core triggers: market volatility, liquidity stress, reserve impairments, mismanagement, demand and supply imbalances, loss of investor confidence, competitor performance, design flaws, hacking, operational risk, limited adoption, regulatory uncertainty and market events can all de-peg StableCoins, leading to erratic and volatile performances.

Risk and return profile of StableCoins

StableCoins are full of promise, but they are also incredibly young. The oldest StableCoin, Tether, is just nine years old. Although regulators are scrambling to offer investors more security, they are still some way off.

Buying asset classes before they have matured presents both risks and opportunities. Higher risk opens the door for higher rewards, but when things go wrong, the fall-out can be fatal. Famously, in May 2022, Terra’s StableCoin crashed dramatically, costing investors $450+ billion. Shortly after came FTX fall, plummeting a further $200+ billion. The aftermath left thousands of investors badly out of pocket with little to no regulatory protection.

For years, regulators like the FCA have been warning investors not to invest too much in crypto, as worrying surges of people lose their entire life savings to this digital asset.

A dire need for diversification

To avoid losing everything in one sweep, investors should spread their money across assets with distinctive characteristics and revenue streams. This process, known as diversification, means the gains from some investments cancel out the loses from others.

Without personal financial advice, it is impossible to say how much of a portfolio should be invested in crypto. However, as a rule, experts have warned against investing more than 5% of wealth. Some even cap the limit at 2%.

Similarly, investors should probably limit other risky assets too. Meme stocks, commodities, derivatives or trending collectibles can all derail a portfolio if they make up more than 10%.

Pairing fine wine and crypto

Unlike digital assets, fine wine moves slowly but surely. Since the end of 2003, the performance of the top 1000 fine wines (according to the Liv-ex 1000 index) has crept little-by-little up by a whopping 315%. But since the rise is smooth and gradual, it does not feel volatile or erratic.

Month-on-month the average fine wine index value rarely changes by more than 5%. By contrast, between the 25th of September and the 25th of October alone, Bitcoin fluctuated by over 30%.

These properties could make fine wine an excellent partner for crypto assets, like StableCoin. The steadfastness of fine wine can help to slow and flatten the rollercoaster effect of crypto has on a portfolio.

Contrasting sources of value

Aside from smoothing volatility, there are other reasons why fine wine could pair well with crypto. One of the strongest is the value source.

Crypto is not backed by a real asset. Some experts argue that the energy used to create a coin is its value. But it is generally agreed that the value of crypto comes from the wider market and the potential that others see in it. So, when the market is in turmoil, prices plummet.

By contrast, fine wine gains its value intrinsically. Put simply, the premise of wine investment is that as fine wine ages, its quality improves, and prices rise. The market operates with its own dynamics based on vintage quality, scarcity and global demand. Whether it’s bullish, bearish or something else, fine wine is still treasured and sought-after.

In this respect, crypto and fine wine investments could pair beautifully. Fine wine offers smoothness and stability. Meanwhile, crypto offers investors higher risk-reward potential and quick liquidity.

Investing responsibly

StableCoins are surging in popularity. Governments, institutional investors and regulators all dipped their toes into crypto over the past months, indicating that further expansion could be around the corner.

This might lead to more growing pains and continued volatility. For those who chose to invest in this young asset, diversification is crucial. Examples of assets which are less affected by the stock market include property, gold or fine wine. We feel that the characteristics of fine wine pair especially well with crypto, helping investors to hedge against volatility risk and smoothen their overall performances.

If you would like to talk to us about investing in fine wine, we’re just a few clicks away.

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Fine wine sustainability report (Part III): profiling the sustainable investor

  • There is an overlap between sustainable and fine wine investors as both share a long-term vision and increasingly similar demographics.
  • 56% of investors are attracted to fine wine because it is a sustainable asset class with a low carbon footprint.
  • Environmental, social and financial sustainability is one of the five characteristics that distinguishes fine wine from other beverages.

This is the third part of our ‘Fine wine sustainability report’. See also part I – how is fine wine sustainable and part II – how can fine wine mitigate risk in a sustainable portfolio. 

There is already some cross-over between sustainable and fine wine investors. The demographics are getting closer all the time.

The most active sustainable investors today are millennials (the group currently aged between 27 and 42). More specifically, the majority of them are entrepreneurs and legacy builders. Likewise, within the world of fine wine, research from Sotheby’s in 2022 found that 35% of new buyers are under the age of forty. This is the second consecutive year of millennials betting on fine wine as the figure hit 37% in 2021.

Fine wine investments can take around ten years to mature, but often take longer to reach scarcity returns. This means that most investors are collecting long-term legacy assets, just like many sustainable investors. The overlap that already exists between ambitious sustainable and fine wine investors is promising. We believe it will continue to grow for the future.

There is already a burgeoning movement of sustainable investors buying fine wine. Our 2023 survey found that 56% of investors are attracted to fine wine because it is a sustainable asset class with a low carbon footprint. Although fine wine has many investment qualities, we believe that the best-suited sustainable investors are those who are looking to hedge against volatility or inflation risks over the long-term. Some investors have religious or personal barriers to investing in fine wine, and in this situation, the asset may not be suitable.

An insatiable passion for change

Is there any industry more determined to adapt and mitigate against the climate crisis than fine wine? The dogged and ruthless determination of winemakers is as inspirational as it is impressive. With floods, forest fires and droughts ripping through the planet, we need every innovation from every industry. Nothing should be discounted. And sustainable investors should be given every possible opportunity to mitigate against risks.

The fine wine industry is rapidly evolving its stance on the planet, with biodiversity, climate adaption and mitigation taking centre stage. Environmental, social and financial sustainability is one of the five characteristics that distinguishes fine wine from other beverages. It is now a defining feature at the heart of every vineyard, nestled in every bottle. What’s more, the Sustainable Wine Roundtable launched a framework for identifying and categorising sustainability in wine in 2023. Now investors have more layers of security than ever before that their investment matches their ethics.

Depriving investors of fine wine would not just leave inflation and stability gaps in portfolios, it would undermine the vital work of an evolving industry. As powerful as it is passionate, this is an asset that packs a seriously low-carbon punch in sustainable portfolios.

“A fine wine is complex, balance, with a potential to age – though highly drinkable at every state of its development. It has the capacity to provoke emotions and wonder in the one drinking it, while reflecting the expression of truth intended by its maker. It is widely recognized, while being environmentally, socially and financially sustainable.”

Areni

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Fine wine sustainability report (Part I): how is fine wine sustainable?

  • Fine wine offers a sustainable investment option, which is increasingly recognised by wealth managers.
  • The industry is proactively adapting to climate change, with practices like regenerative farming and reducing bottle weight. 
  • Fine wine’s focus on social sustainability, including worker welfare and community support, boosts its appeal as a sustainable investment choice, aligning with modern ESG criteria.

Floods, fires and famine are no longer on our doorstep, they have already crossed the threshold into normality. In the first eight months of 2023 alone, the USA suffered 23 separate billion-dollar climate disasters. Research shows that by 2050, floods in Europe will increase five-fold.

Alongside climate disaster comes human suffering, ever-growing wealth gaps and loss of livelihoods. The homes of indigenous tribes are deforested to clear space for oil drilling. The most vulnerable find their communities and businesses flooded. Meanwhile, social inequality rachets up with poor climate policies.

Investors are all too aware of the damage. A 2023 study by Harvard found 85% ask their advisors about sustainable investments. While some groups – particularly millennials – have become activists themselves, using their shareholder votes to force change. So where does fine wine come into this?

Although ethical investing has been around for centuries, climate-focused sustainable investing is strikingly new. The insatiable demand we see today is less than a decade old. Between 2016 and 2020 alone, sustainable investing in Europe, USA, Canada, Australasia, and Japan swelled by 55%. Even though it is a multi-trillion industry, ‘Sustainable Investment’ still doesn’t even have a definition in most parts of the world. Because of this, the movement has borrowed a lot from pre-existing rules, which were mostly religious.

For centuries, our sustainable investment has been built on the foundations of Quaker and Methodist beliefs. This explains why alcohol, or to quote John Wesley ‘that liquid fire’ has been prohibited from almost all ESG (environmental, social, governance) funds – even when fossil fuel producers, fast fashion and plastic polluters made it on the list.

However, we believe this is a mistake. Fine wine offers extraordinary sustainable benefits to investors, especially when it comes to balancing out the risks of green bonds and risky impact investments. Not only does fine wine contribute to a greener future (it is a natural product after all), but this asset class can also plug vital strategic gaps, giving sustainable investors even more confidence. The time has come to give fine wine the credit it deserves.

How is fine wine sustainable?

While there is no universal definition of a ‘Sustainable Investment’, the European Union has made significant headway. According to the EU taxonomy, an environmentally sustainable investment must contribute significantly to one of the following, without jeopardising the others;

  • Climate change mitigation
  • Climate change adaption
  • Sustainable use and protection of water and marine resources
  • Transition to a circular economy
  • Pollution prevention and control
  • Protection and restoration of biodiversity

We believe that fine wine not only meets this criterion but exceeds it. Vineyards rely on a stable climate, fertile soil and regenerative farming. From using free range ducks and sheep instead of pesticides to replacing heavy glass with lighter alternatives, the environmental innovations in the wine industry are never-ending.

Climate change mitigation and circular economies

To secure a safer future, every efficiency counts. The most carbon-intensive part of fine wine production is making and transporting the heavy glass bottles that contain the wine. According to one Sustainable Wine Roundtable report, this accounts for over half of the total environmental impact of wine. Simply by reducing the bottles from 550g to 420g would cut 25% of carbon emissions.

Although dense packaging has long-been associated with quality, European fine wine producers are throwing themselves into this trend. Burgundy producer, Albert Bichot, for example has reduced the bottle weight from 700-750g to 450g. According to one interview, the producer also uses only recycled glass and biodegradable labels. Even Champagne – which typically uses thicker glass – is experimenting. Bollinger, for example, is committed to a 7% reduction in bottle weight by 2029, as well as to use only recycled and recyclable materials.

Another area for improvement is energy efficiency throughout the manufacturing process. Here, fine wine has achieved far more than other industries. Almost every fine wine producer we could find has taken significant steps to reduce emissions dramatically. One of our favourite examples is Ornellaia. 2022 saw this winery slash liquefied petroleum gases usage by 98% with biomass heat. Today the entire firm uses the equivalent of 5% of the average family of four household over a year. Ornellaia has also blended nature with technology by installing a Building Management System to ensure that the temperature is efficiently set.

Climate change adaption, sustainable use of water and protection of biodiversity

World-famous flavours are at risk from climate change. As Comité Champagne report, temperatures are now 1.8 degrees higher than in the 1980s, meaning grapes are at risk of bursting prematurely or drying out. They now need to be picked thirty days earlier, potentially cutting the characteristic tastes short. Fine wine producers have been rigorousness and brave, proactively innovating in the face of the climate crisis. Not only do these innovations help cool down and protect the precious vines, but they also offer investors significant environmental benefits too.

One of the most widespread practices in fine wine vineyards now is the use of regenerative farming. Rather than using typical organic practices, which can still harm pollinators, producers are leaning into nature. Sheep roam around some vineyards picking off bugs organically, and often, horses are put to work instead of tractors.

Sustainability at Pontet Canet

Significantly, many fine wine producers such as Château Cheval Blanc plant diverse fruit and forestry trees between the vines. This helps to shade the grapes, sequester carbon and provide homes for vital pollinators. The fungus which grows around the roots of the trees also soaks up water, acting as a pump, pushing nutrients into the vines.

Water irrigation is one of the hottest topics for today’s fine wine producers, with many now working with their natural landscapes to find the best solutions. Vineyards are increasingly planting or shifting vines along the contours of the land, to prevent run-off during heavy rainfalls. They are also adding ground covers to prevent evaporation, keeping the soil damper and more nutritious.

The adaptions are coming thick and fast, as vineyards experiment with new grapes, and alternative locations. Northern France, the UK and Germany are fast becoming viable options for fine wine in this new climate, with producers are always one step ahead of the curve.

Social sustainability

Sustainability is about more than preserving the environment. It is also about protecting workers and supporting local communities. Although the fine wine industry is not as advanced in this area as it is with environmental sustainability, frameworks and strong voices are beginning to emerge. As one wine producer puts it:

‘Do we farm organically because it’s better for the environment? Certainly. Do we farm organically because it makes better-tasting wine? Without question. But the most important reason to farm organically is because the lives of the people who work in the vineyards, and the people who live downstream, matter.’

Caring for the environment and biodiversity also has far-reaching effects on local life. Vineyards continue to play a vital role in the culture and traditions of their local communities. Recently the Comité Champagne proposed a series of tangible solutions to improve the lives of the region’s 120,000 harvest workers. We are also seeing a general trend of permanent contracts for employees, as well as a sharp focus on improving diversity at board levels. While there is certainly work to be done in this space, the general trajectory looks promising.

Stay tuned for Part II of our Fine Wine Sustainability Report, in which we discuss how fine wine can mitigate risk in sustainable portfolios – coming next week.

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Special report – 2023’s big investment themes: fine wine and beyond

Our latest report, 2023’s big investment themes: fine wine and beyond, has now been released. The report looks at the key themes that defined markets this year, from interest rates to sustainability. It positions fine wine within a broader investment context and analyses the key events that influenced its performance.

Report highlights:

  • Tech, interest, and sustainability came to define markets in 2023.
  • The stock market bounced back, and technology stocks rallied as the world became fascinated with generative AI.
  • In a bid to cool down the red-hot inflation levels, the Bank of England cranked up interest rates 14 times.
  • As central banks increased interest rates, they also began to stockpile gold.
  • In the UK, interest rates reached the highest point since 1998. This signalled an end to the era of cheap borrowing, which could limit growth for some economies.
  • 2023 saw the rush of demand for green bonds – borrowing money to finance sustainable projects.
  • Sustainability drove fine wine demand among investors and led to other positive developments in the wine industry.

 

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Key trends that shaped the fine wine market in Q3

The following article is an extract from our Q3 Fine Wine Investment report, which will be published next week.

  • Ongoing inflation and interest rate hikes led to increased volatility in mainstream markets.
  • The fine wine market in Q3 was a buyer’s market for two main reasons: availability of stock and falling prices creating value.
  • Two of the best value La Place releases were Almaviva 2021 and Masseto 2020.

High interest rates rattle global markets

Mainstream markets experienced a turbulent third quarter, mainly due to a marked rise in borrowing costs coupled with a substantial increase of nearly 30% in oil prices. As a major input in several industries, rising prices for crude oil led to overall increase in production costs, impacting profit margins and, ultimately, reducing stock prices. These developments created a challenging landscape for stocks and bonds, with investors opting for more liquid assets like cash that tends to be a safer short-term bet. This inclination towards liquid assets illustrated the unresolved struggle between the Federal Reserve and inflation, leaving investors navigating a path marked by heightened risk and uncertainty.

Fine wine’s downturn slows

Fine wine prices fell in Q3, but their declines gradually became smaller. For instance, the Liv-ex 100 index recorded dips of 3.1% in July, 1.3% in August and 0.1% in September, showing humble signs of recovery. The broader Liv-ex 1000 index dipped 3.9% in Q3. Italian wine fared well, thanks to strong performance from Tuscany and Piedmont, as well as older Bordeaux vintages which experienced slight rebounds. Global trading activity increased suggesting that interest is there for well-priced stock.

A buyer’s market

The fine wine market in Q3 was a buyer’s market for two main reasons: availability of stock and falling prices creating value. This was particularly noticeable in regions like Champagne. Some of the top and most desirable brands, which have an impressive mid- to long-term performance saw small declines in Q3. Buyers took advantage of this opportunity and demand increased. Such is the case with Dom Pérignon 2013, which has fallen 7.1% in value since its release in January but has been the most traded wine this year. The brand’s overall trajectory is upwards, with Dom Pérignon prices rising 64% on average in the last five years, and 133% over the last decade.

Assessing the La Place de Bordeaux campaign

Over 110 fine wines were released through La Place de Bordeaux this September. The overall pricing strategy bore similarities to Bordeaux En Primeur earlier this year: price increases that failed to take the current market environment into account. Some critics expressed the opinion that there weren’t ‘as many hits as usual’. Two wines that stood out as good value were Almaviva 2021 and Masseto 2020; the latter immediately generated trading activity above its release price.

Over the last decade, Almaviva prices have risen on average 167%, while Masseto is up 107%.

Stay tuned – our Q3 Fine Wine Investment report will be published next week. The report contains further analysis on the best-performing and most in-demand wines, and Q4 investment outlook.

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Differences and similarities between the fine wine and financial markets

  • The fine wine market is not correlated with mainstream markets yet there are some notable similarities and differences between them.
  • Global events and the law of supply and demand affect both the fine wine and financial markets.
  • Some of the main differences are tangibility, liquidity, the impact of time and factors influencing their performance.

The world of fine wine and the broader financial market might seem like distinct universes at first glance. However, there are intriguing similarities and differences between the two, which we examine below. 

Similarities between fine wine and financial markets

Both fine wine and financial markets provide lucrative opportunities for investors. While the latter showcases a plethora of options like stocks, commodities, and currencies, the former provides an alternative avenue for diversification, offering tangible assets, valued not just for their financial potential but also their historical and cultural significance. In stark contrast to the complexity and varied strategic approaches inherent in the financial markets, the wine market is more straightforward, predominantly guided by a ‘buy and hold’ strategy. Moreover, the universe of investable wines is notably narrower, typically centering around a select group of regions and producers.

Driven by demand

The laws of supply and demand are central to price determination in both markets. A rare vintage from a renowned vineyard or a wine produced in small quantities can fetch astronomical prices due to limited supply, mirroring the price surge of a high-demand stock or asset. For instance, Hubert Lamy Saint-Aubin Premier Cru Derriere Chez Edouard Saint Aubin has risen 189% in value over the last year due to low supply. The singular wine comes from a tiny plot of 0.7 hectares in Derrière chez Edouard, which was planted 20 years ago at 30,000 vines per hectare. At such a density, the entire plot only yields enough juice to fill the contents of a single barrel. In the world of stocks, demand has played a key role too. Nvidia – the company of the AI-fueled market rally – has been the best-performer in 2023, up 198%.

Impact of global events

Economic downturns, political events, and global crises can influence both the fine wine and financial markets. However, fine wine is less susceptible to global crisis. In fact, events that induce uncertainty usually drive investors towards more stable, tangible assets, which can include fine wines.

For instance, the fine wine market hit new heights during the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw a shift away from risk assets. Prices rose due to heightened demand for fine wine, which demonstrated remarkable resilience during the pandemic.

Expert valuations

Just as financial analysts predict stock performances, wine experts gauge the potential value of wines, guiding investors’ decisions. Investors can also follow the historical performance of their wines of interest with tools like Wine Track, which shows the performance of different brands over various time periods, as well as average prices and scores.

Differences between the fine wine and financial markets 

Tangibility

Investing in fine wine is an investment in tangible assets. The very bottle that appreciates in value over the years can be held, showcased, and ultimately consumed. Contrarily, financial investments, such as stocks or bonds, epitomise intangible assets, wherein the investment is in a concept or a digital representation.

Liquidity

The fine wine and financial markets have different levels of liquidity, which are rooted in their inherent trading characteristics. Fine wine tends to be less liquid, due to its tangibility, with transactions often slowed by factors such as the necessity for physical transport, authentication of products, and a comparatively limited buyer market. Additionally, investment-grade wines often necessitate longer holding periods to realise their gains, further reducing their liquidity. Meanwhile, the financial market is commonly cherished for its high liquidity, with assets like stocks and bonds that can be rapidly traded on large-scale platforms, accommodating a broad, active base of buyers and sellers.

The impact of time

The relationship between wine and time also sets these markets apart. While fine wine can age (which impacts its quality and value), financial assets do not inherently bear such physical transformations. However, their value may be just as susceptible to the passage of time and shifts in market dynamics.

Storage and maintenance

Fine wines require specific conditions for storage to retain or enhance their value, incurring additional costs. In contrast, stocks or digital assets don’t require such maintenance.

Factors influencing performance

In the wine investment landscape, several factors, including vintage quality, expert reviews, provenance, and global demand, play pivotal roles in determining a wine’s value and investment potential. Often burgeoning markets exert a profound influence, dynamically shaping global demand and investment flows, like China’s love affair with Bordeaux.

On the other hand, the financial market is steered by economic indicators and central bank policies, technological advances and corporate actions, such as mergers and acquisitions. Each factor, be it micro or macro in scale, casts its influence over the market’s performance, underscoring the multifaceted nature of financial investments.

Investor profiles

Fine wine appeals to a myriad of audiences, including collectors, connoisseurs, and institutional investors seeking diversified, alternative investment portfolios. The allure of tangible, appreciative assets, coupled with a penchant for oenology, makes this market a vibrant tapestry of participants.

Conversely, the financial market is frequented by a diverse mix of retail and institutional investors, brokers, and analysts. The widespread availability of resources, platforms, and instruments in the financial domain makes it accessible to an extensive demographic.

While the fine wine market and the financial market operate in distinct realms, the parallels and contrasts between them offer valuable insights. As with any investment, potential investors in either market should conduct thorough research and seek expert advice. 

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Investment opportunities in LVMH Champagnes

  • Recent LVMH Champagne releases offer a combination of high quality and relative value for money.
  • Dom Pérignon 2013 has been the most in-demand wine so far this year.
  • The current market environment has created plenty of Champagne buying opportunities, among which Krug 2006 stands out.

A name synonymous with luxury and quality, Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy’s (LVMH) wines have become mainstays of any serious wine investment portfolio. Owners of iconic brands like Krug, Dom Pérignon, Ruinart, Veuve Clicquot and Ace of Spades, LVMH has set unparalleled standards in Champagne production.

Not only have their wines delivered quality, as affirmed by critic scores, but they have brought greater liquidity to the Champagne market. A common theme uniting some of their recent releases is the outstanding value they offer compared to back vintages.

Dom Pérignon 2013 – the most wanted wine this year

Dom Pérignon 2013 is the latest release from the most in-demand Champagne brand. The wine boasts 95+ points from the Wine Advocate’s William Kelley, who called it ‘a lovely wine, defined by the long, cool growing season’.

The remarkable value it offers – as the most affordable Dom Pérignon vintage in the market today – has led it to become the most traded wine by both value and volume this year. The wine’s price has fallen slightly since release (-7.1%), in line with the recent reconciliation in Champagne prices. The Champagne 50 index has dipped 13.1% year-to-date.

However, the brand’s overall trajectory is upwards, with Dom Pérignon prices rising 64% on average in the last five years, and 133% over the last decade, making it an opportune time to buy.

Latest Krug Grande Cuvée editions

The crowning jewel of LVMH, Champagne house Krug, also introduced its latest Grande Cuvée earlier this year. The 171st edition, blended meticulously from 30 different vintages dating back to 2000, represents the lowest-priced Krug GC.

Magnums of the 168th edition are also new to the market, with the hallowed 2012 as the base vintage. Older releases of such magnums are hard to find and command a hefty premium, once again underlining the value to be had here.

Opportunities in Krug 

The recent decline in Champagne prices has created buying opportunities for some of the top names. The latest Krug vintage, the 2008, has become more affordable after dipping 29.0% year-to-date. The wine received 97-points from Antonio Galloni (Vinous) who described it as a ‘nervy, electrifying Champagne, the likes of which has not emerged from Krug’s cellars since the magical 1996’.

However, the 2006 presents an even better investment opportunity. While it is the lowest-priced Krug vintage, its scores align with pricier alternatives such as 2002. The 2006 boasts 96-points from Neal Martin, 97-points from Galloni and 98-points from Kelley, making its value proposition even more evident.

Krug prices have risen 71% on average in the last five years (see more on Wine Track).

Buyers can find plenty of opportunities in LVMH’s Champagnes. Despite the recent dip in the Champagne market, the long-term trajectory of these illustrious brands indicates a steady and impressive rise. The value on offer in some of the most recent offerings makes them an even more lucrative acquisition.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.