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History of Burgundy’s price performance

Burgundy history
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The following article is an extract from our Burgundy regional wine investment report.

  • Burgundy is the region with the highest average bottle prices.
  • It is the best-performing fine wine region, considerably outperforming industry benchmarks.
  • This article analyses its historic performance, the drivers behind its success, and what this might meant for the future of the region.

Burgundy has earned an impressive reputation in the fine wine investment landscape. The region is the outright leader when it comes to average bottle prices and the long-term performance of its wines.

The Burgundy 150 index, which tracks the prices of the last ten vintages across 15 Burgundy brands, is the leading Liv-ex regional index, continually outperforming Bordeaux, Italy and Champagne. It is up over 650% since its inception.

Although the index only comprises a narrow pool of highly traded wines, it provides an indication of the direction of Burgundy prices. During its impressive rise, the index experienced only one significant drop of 15%, giving investors confidence that its punctuated equilibrium will continue.

Historic performance of Burgundy prices

The Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index doubled from early 2006 to mid/late 2008 — the first awakening of the Burgundy market as a new generation of wealthy consumers started to dominate the collectors’ market. This was at least in part driven by the volume of information available to them online from reviewers like Robert Parker and Allen Meadows and a greater focus on fine wine from the major auction houses.

After the 2008 financial crisis, Burgundy was somewhat left in the shadow. With the opening of the Chinese market, Bordeaux grew massively between 2008 and 2011. When Bordeaux fell from its 2011 peak, a new generation of investors flocked to Burgundy, seeking growth and breadth to their holdings.

From 2016 to late-2018, the value of the Burgundy 150 index doubled again. This can be attributed to growing liquidity in the sector and its recognition as a viable high-return investment. The region experienced a period of decline in 2019/2020, after a 15-year period without any significant downward movements. Some of this retreat has been related to profit taking and, later on, to the Covid-19 pandemic. Burgundy quickly made up for lost time in 2021 and 2022, with factors such as increased at-home consumption of fine wine, growing online trade, and rising liquidity contributing to its success. The index hit an all-time high in October 2022 at 909.4.

The market at large experienced another period of contraction in 2023, due to a combination of macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical conflicts, the lasting effects of the pandemic, high inflation and rising interest rates. Burgundy was the hardest hit region.

However, the overall direction of prices remains upwards as the trendline in the chart below shows. Such periods are advantageous times for Burgundy buyers who are usually able to find more stock at lower prices.

Burgundy 150 and price trendlines

To find out more about the investment market for Burgundy wines, read the full report here.

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How could 2024’s interest rates impact fine wine?

  • If interest rates increase or stay the same, there may be golden opportunities for savvy investors to fill their wine cellars for lower-than-average prices.
  • If the Bank of England starts to drop interest rates consecutively around May, we would expect the fine wine market to show signs of growth around autumn.
  • Rather than focus on short-term economic events, we encourage investors to buy high quality fine wines, and ideally hold them for at least a decade.

Today’s interest rates are 5.25% in the UK. That is a lot higher than most of us are used to. For example, in 2019 they were just 0.75%. But it is reassuring that they have not been cranked up even more over the past months. Consensus among most economists is that the rates will surely come down again in 2024. The question is, by how much?

Unlike the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England is warning markets not to expect big cuts. As Reuter’s reports, its ‘policy stance assumes a slow fall in interest rates to 4.25% in three years’ time’. However, many economists think that the rates will fall sooner.

Contrary to the central bank, Goldman Sachs predict rates will dip below 4% by the end of the year, marking a drop of more than 1.25%. Experts at Deutsche Bank are almost aligned, anticipating a 1.0% dip in the same timeframe. Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics consultancy, expects the bank to start lowering rates in May. However, other economists suggest that June is more realistic.

In this article, we consider what these different scenarios mean for fine wine investors. When to buy, when to sell and when to hold are all critical questions as we dive into 2024.

If interest rates increase or stay the same

Continued high rates would probably be unwelcome news for most fine wine investors. Dovish policies like this usually led to a stronger pound, making wine more expensive for international buyers if sourcing from the UK market.

Asian and American buyers are a significant part of the fine wine market and cutting them out would probably lead to a dip in prices, as supply outstrips demand.

High interest rates could also temper domestic demand. After all, when the economy shrinks, there is less money for luxury goods. Buyers may opt for better ‘value’ purchases.

The compelling interest rates of savings accounts could also tempt investors away from illiquid assets. Over the short-term, putting cash into a bank account could seem like a safer bet. Even though, of course, over the long-term, the inflation risk is severe.

Ongoing high interest rates would likely create a buyer’s market. For the first few months of the year, until May, we could expect this to continue happening. Around this time, there may be golden opportunities for savvy investors to fill their cellars for lower-than-average prices.

If interest rates decrease by 0.25% – 2%

The most likely scenario is that the Bank of England will gradually reduce rates, starting from late spring or early summer. Most analysts (including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Fidelity) seem to be anticipating a drop of at least 1.0%, and the markets have already priced this into products and forecasts. As seen in the news recently, inflation seems to be cooling, creating the right environment for interest rate cuts. For fine wine investors, this makes for reassuring reading.

Shrinking interest rates will make other low-risk investments like gold or savings accounts less compelling. Investors will probably start to feel the pull of more assets with more generous risk premiums. During the second half of the year, if interest goes down, fine wine prices might slowly increase.

A growing economy usually comes with more money to pop Champagne and see the year through in style. We’d expect the fine wine market to perk up in this environment.

Lower interest rates would probably be welcome news for international investors, as this usually signals better exchange rates. In 2021 and 2022, the weak pound and strong dollar stimulated Asian and American markets, boosting fine wine prices.

If the Bank of England starts to drop interest rates consecutively around May, we would expect the fine wine market to show signs of growth by around autumn. Prices would probably begin to creep up and continue rising with each rate cut. This would balance out the market, likely creating more demand and opportunities for sellers.

If interest rates plunge by 2% or more

It seems unlikely that interest rates will ever return to their pre-pandemic lows. Some experts, like those at Fidelity, argue that the previous rates were even kept ‘artificially low’, and overdue a correction. However, as recent years have taught us, unexpected things can happen.

If interest rates nosedive by more than 2% over 2024, it would probably be exceptionally good for fine wine investors. Both global and local demand would likely increase, as we saw in 2021. With the cost of borrowing plunging, we could expect to see more budgets allocated to luxury products like fine wine, creating more of a sellers’ market.

Fine wine investors in 2021 already enjoyed the rewards that come with a weak pound and low interest rates. International buyers leap into the market, creating a surge in demand.

If the interest rates cascade down to 3% or less by the end of the year, we would expect to see demand outstrip supply, leading to a hike in fine wine prices. This would be welcome news for sellers looking to cash-in their returns.

In the long-term, does it matter?

These predictions cover interest rate hikes over the next twelve months. But the real returns of fine wine tend to come in the longer run. As the Liv-ex 1000 index shows, fine wine prices on average have nearly doubled since 2014.

Rather than focus on short-term economic events, we encourage investors to buy high quality fine wines, care for them properly, and ideally hold them for at least a decade. For us, this is the true beauty of wine; its value is mostly intrinsic.

If you’d like to talk to an expert about buying or selling fine wine, we are just a call or an email away.

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Assessing the Burgundy 2022 En Primeur campaign

Burgundy 2022
  • Burgundy prices continued to spiral downwards in January, falling 3.7%.
  • This created a challenging backdrop for the unfolding Burgundy 2022 campaign, which saw about 10% of producers reduce pricing year-on-year.
  • The current market dynamics offer investors a unique window to enrich their collections with both new gems and proven performers.

Burgundy took the spotlight at the beginning of the year with the unfolding 2022 En Primeur campaign. Already in our Q4 2023 report, we questioned the potential of the new releases to stimulate an otherwise dormant market. On the one hand, there was the excitement of the new mixed with high quality and quantity playing to the campaign’s advantage; on the other, much depended on pricing.

Market conditions and pricing challenges

Burgundy prices continued to spiral downwards in January, with the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index starting the year with a 3.7% decrease. To say that this created a challenging backdrop for the new releases would be an understatement. Prices at release had to come down.

And partially they did. According to Liv-ex, about 10% of the top producers ‘lowered their prices year-on-year’. However, ‘about 40% raised their prices, even if only modestly’. Thanks to greater quantities, allocations were mostly restored.

Burgundy 2022 – ‘a treasure trove’

As the first releases landed, Burgundy 2022 enjoyed a positive reception from critics and trade. Neal Martin (Vinous) advised that ‘if your favourite growers’ price tags seem fair, then I would not hesitate diving in’. He described the 2022 vintage as ‘Burgundy’s latest trick: a treasure trove of bright ‘n bushy-tailed whites and reds in a season that implied such wines would be impossible, wines predestined to give immense drinking pleasure’.

Investment perspective and older vintages

However, prices for older vintages remain under pressure, creating buying opportunities for already physical and readily available wines. For instance, three of Burgundy’s outstanding long-term wine performers have all seen dips between 15% and 10% in the last year. Over the last decade, however, DRC Vosne-Romanée Cuvée Duvault Blochet is up 388%; Georges Roumier Bonnes Mares – 339%, and Armand Rousseau Chambertin – 279% on average.

Burgundy wines performance

Meanwhile, the Burgundy 150 index has decreased 16% in the last year. Still, the overall long-term index trajectory remains upwards, as the chart below shows.

Burgundy index

Searching for value

The current market dynamics offer investors a unique window to enrich their collections with both new gems and proven performers across older physically available vintages.

When it comes to the latest, the Burgundy 2022 En Primeur campaign presents a complex tapestry of quality, quantity, and pricing amidst challenging market conditions. Despite initial price pressures, the adjustments made by producers and the positive critical reception underscore the potential of the new releases. Neal Martin’s endorsement further elevates the vintage, suggesting that for the discerning buyer, Burgundy 2022 provides not just immediate drinking pleasure but also long-term investment opportunities.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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How to use fine wine as a hedge against inflation

fine wine hedge against inflation
  • Fine wine can effectively hedge against inflation, often outperforming traditional assets like gold and stocks.
  • Investment in fine wine requires consideration of personal ethics, liquidity needs, and a long-term strategy.
  • Strategic timing in fine wine investment, such as early purchases, can lead to significant profit taking.

Since 1914, the price of bread has seen inflation of around 11,000%. In the roaring 20s, a loaf cost under a penny. Fast forward to today, the average bread costs around £1.35. This price rise is not due to an increase in the quality of bread but rather a reflection of the decreasing purchasing power of money over time. In the words of the French writer and Burgundy lover, Hugo Voltaire, ‘Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero’.

As well as playing havoc with our savings, inflation can be the undoing of fixed-income investment portfolios too. Unless the interest rates outpace the loss of purchasing power, repayments will be worth less and less each year. In these tense economic times, investors may be tempted by hedge funds and hedging assets like derivatives. While these can offer reassurance, they’re also complicated and expensive. So-called ‘safe haven’ assets like gold and property are also effective inflation-hedges. But right now, they are trading at a premium. This article explores an alternative option: fine wine as a hedge against inflation risk.

Assess your inflation exposure in your investment strategy

If you invest in liquid and fixed-income investments like cash or bonds, your wealth is probably exposed to inflation. This tends to be more typical for those closer to retirement, as they may need access to regular funds. Start by identifying these assets in your portfolio. Pay close attention to bonds which last more than five years, as the interest payments (or coupons) could be more at risk of losing value over time.

Once you’ve identified the riskiest assets, refer to your strategy. There may already be a plan for how to deal with periods of high inflation. Most managers will build-in hedging assets from the beginning. But many will also deviate from the strategy tactically from time to time. For example, in high inflation environments, they might sell some bonds and buy stocks – known as going ‘overweight’ or ‘underweight’ from the original allocations. This is what you may need to do if you have too much inflation risk in your portfolio. Depending on your financial needs, fine wine could be a sensible alternative investment for you.

Consider if fine wine is right for you

Fine wine is a truly excellent hedge against inflation. However, it may not be suitable for everyone. If you do not want to invest in fine wine because of religion or personal reasons, you should follow your ethics. Wine is not the only inflation-resistant asset, and you may be better suited to art, luxury watches and collectible cars.

You should also consider your liquidity needs. Fine wine is a long-term asset with intrinsic value. Investors can only collect returns after the bottles have been sold. And for the best results, that could take upwards of five years.

Investors should also be aware that fine wine is traded on the private market. Nowadays, this is much easier than it used to be. Instead of attending physical auctions and joining exclusive clubs, you can find fine wine investment platforms online.

Find a wine to suit your time horizon

The value of fine wine typically increases with age. Investors often buy fine wine at least five years in advance, with some opting for En Primeur purchases.

In this world, timing is everything. And if you can get it right, you stand to make a handsome profit. Over ten years, Domaine Arnoux-Lachaux Nuits-Saint-Georges Rouge, for example, has delivered returns of 525% and counting.

Before you begin, consider carefully what type of time horizon you are comfortable with. Ideally, you’re looking to plug the inflation gaps in your portfolio, without landing yourself into an illiquidity issue. For example, if you’re concerned about the inflation risk of some five-year bonds, you could look into ‘brands on the move’ that have historically delivered faster returns.

Understand the fine wine market

Fine wine attracts a diverse range of buyers, from enthusiasts to those purchasing for business or personal milestones. Understanding buyer motivations and regional preferences is key to strategic investing. Seasonal trends, like the heightened demand for Champagne towards the end of the year, also play a role in maximising returns.

A precious and depleting asset with intrinsic value

If you’re looking to shield your wealth from the erosive effects of inflation, fine wine could be the answer. It is a precious and depleting asset, with intrinsic value. As one academic paper recently found, ‘fine wine has outperformed almost every other major financial index over the past two decades’. However, to get the best results, you’d probably need to buy, hold and think long-term.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Burgundy 2022: a promising vintage in a challenging market

  • The 2022 vintage boasts high quality and quantity – ‘the largest crop in 23 years’.
  • It is being launched in a downward market, following ten months of consistent price declines.
  • As demand has tempered and stock has (re-)entered the market, the success of the upcoming releases will largely depend on pricing.

Burgundy’s 2022 vintage is being launched in a downward market, following ten months of consistent price declines. The success of the upcoming releases will largely depend on pricing, but will its quality and quantity have the potential to turn the tables?

Critical opinions on Burgundy 2022

Critic reports thus far have been overwhelmingly positive, applauding both the quality and the quantity of the vintage. 2022 marks the largest crop in 23 years, with some producers seeing double the yields of the previous year. According to Matthew Hayes (JancisRobinson.com), ‘across the whole of Burgundy, 2022 offered a whopping 75.4% more wine (red, white and crémant) compared with 2021’.

Contrary to expectations, the vintage produced wines with typicity, purity, and freshness despite the extreme weather. Hayes commented that ‘2022 was the second-hottest year that the Côte d’Or has endured this century and should logically have followed in the footsteps of the equally stifling solaire years of 2019 and 2020, producing wines with rich, deep fruit profiles and vibrant acidities to ensure long life but […] the wines show a generally impeccable balance of tidy, ripe fruit, discreet acidity and equally (and mostly) refined tannins’.

Hayes revealed that ‘the best-sited and best-rooted vines appeared to have coped well with the heat and in the Côte d’Or the excellence of the top premiers and grands crus shines clearly’.

The prevailing opinion is that 2022 is an excellent year for white wines, reminiscent of 2017 and 2020. Meanwhile, tasting notes from the Côte de Beaune and Côte de Nuits highlighted dense red wines with well-integrated tannins, simultaneously offering elegance and concentration. The wines are expected to be approachable in youth but with significant ageing potential.

However, the market onto which they are released is just as important as the releases themselves.

The current market for Burgundy

In October 2022, the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index reached an unprecedented peak, marking a staggering 809.4% increase since its inception in December 2003. Twenty years later, Burgundy remains the best-performing fine wine region.

However, since its peak, prices have tumbled 17.4%. This decline has been attributed to various macroeconomic factors that led to a shift in investor sentiment. As the economic landscape became more uncertain, fine wine buyers have grown increasingly risk-averse, causing a contraction in demand for more volatile investments.

This trend was particularly pronounced in Burgundy, which had soared too high across the whole spectrum. At these stratospheric prices, the market saw more sellers than buyers, with investors keen to liquidate their stock. Top-tier Burgundy (re-)entered the market as sellers were looking to make gains.

This perception of increased risk and a preference for stability among investors led to a decrease in Burgundy’s trade share by value. The falling prices further exacerbated this trend.

Burgundy fine wine prices

The market conditions present a challenging backdrop for the high-quality high-quantity Burgundy 2022 En Primeur campaign. Will the excitement of the new be enough to stimulate demand?

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Special report – 2023’s big investment themes: fine wine and beyond

Our latest report, 2023’s big investment themes: fine wine and beyond, has now been released. The report looks at the key themes that defined markets this year, from interest rates to sustainability. It positions fine wine within a broader investment context and analyses the key events that influenced its performance.

Report highlights:

  • Tech, interest, and sustainability came to define markets in 2023.
  • The stock market bounced back, and technology stocks rallied as the world became fascinated with generative AI.
  • In a bid to cool down the red-hot inflation levels, the Bank of England cranked up interest rates 14 times.
  • As central banks increased interest rates, they also began to stockpile gold.
  • In the UK, interest rates reached the highest point since 1998. This signalled an end to the era of cheap borrowing, which could limit growth for some economies.
  • 2023 saw the rush of demand for green bonds – borrowing money to finance sustainable projects.
  • Sustainability drove fine wine demand among investors and led to other positive developments in the wine industry.

 

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The place of the Bordeaux First Growths in a changing fine wine market

  • Once the dominant force in the fine wine market, the Bordeaux First Growths have lost market share due to its broadening.
  • In the last decade, Château Mouton Rothschild has been the best price performer, up 43.2%.
  • Château Haut-Brion offers the best value, with the highest average critic score and the lowest average price per case.

The Bordeaux First Growths in a broadening market

The Bordeaux First Growths have long been the cornerstone of the fine wine investment market. Back in 2010, they made up close to 90% of all Bordeaux trade by value – at a time, when Bordeaux’s share of the total market stood at 96%.

With the broadening of the market, their share has decreased and they now regularly account for around 30% of all Bordeaux secondary market trade (which itself has fallen below 35% annual average).

This trend was also reflected in the 2022 Power 100 list, which offered a snapshot of the ever-changing landscape of the secondary market. For the first time ever, no Bordeaux wines featured among the top ten most powerful fine wine labels.

Even if trade for these brands remains consistent or increases, the First Growths are facing greater competition. Still, they are among the wines with the greatest liquidity, attracting regular demand and high praise from critics year after year.

First Growths’ price performance

In terms of price performance, the five First Growths have followed a similar trajectory (i.e. rising post-Covid and dipping in the last year in line with the current market reality). The relative outcast has been Château Latour, whose performance was impacted by the decision to leave the En Primeur system in 2012. The wine has been the worst-performing First Growth, up just 17.9% in the last decade.

The best performer has been Château Mouton Rothschild, with an increase of 43.2%. Recent releases have elevated the performance of the brand, like the 2020 vintage, which boasts 100-points from The Wine Advocate’s William Kelley, 99-100 from James Suckling, 98-100 from Jeff Leve and 99 from Antonio Galloni (Vinous). ‘Off’ vintages like 2011, 2013 and 2014, which have greater room to rise, have also fared well over the last five years.

The second-best performer has been Château Margaux, which is also the second most affordable First Growth. Similarly, its biggest price risers have been 2014, 2011 and 2013. Less classical years reveal the strength of these brands, as demand for the First Growths remains consistently high regardless of the vintage.

First Growths’ price and score comparison

The table below shows the average price per case and critic score of the First Growths for vintages since 2000.

Château Haut-Brion tops the list with the highest average score (95.9) and the lowest average price per case (£4,595). With a price per point of £48, the wine seems to offer the best value among the First Growths. Vintages that have received 100-points from The Wine Advocate include 2018 (LPB), 2016 (LPB), 2015 (LPB), 2009 (LPB) and 2005 (RP).

Looking at the average prices, Château Lafite Rothschild stands out as the most expensive of the First Growths. The wine has achieved 100-points from The Wine Advocate for its 2019 (WK), 2018 (LPB), 2010 (LPB) and 2003 (RP) vintages.

In conclusion, the First Growths remain an important part of the changing secondary market, offering brand strength, consistently high quality and stable growth.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Italian fine wine shows resilience amid market corrections

  • Italian fine wine has demonstrated resilience during the market’s latest corrective phase.
  • Piedmont and Tuscany have shaped the Italian fine wine market in complementary ways.
  • In the last year, Bibi Graetz Testamatta has been the best performing brand from Tuscany, up 93%, while Marchesi di Barolo Riserva has led the way in Piedmont, up 128%.

Italy has been a beacon of stability during the fine wine market’s latest corrective phase, which has seen prices fall 7.5% over the last year. The Italy 100 index has dipped just 0.4% during this time, but many of its top wine brands have continued to make considerable gains.

Italy’s stability is more than just a short-term trend; its long-term performance has been characterised by low volatility and steady returns. Its index has risen 286% in value over the last two decades, driven by growing demand for Italian fine wine, and quality improvements.

Indeed, the top wines of Piedmont and Tuscany compare favourably to Burgundy and Bordeaux in terms of critic scores, yet prices are often lower. Italy entices buyers with lower-cost access into the fine wine market, and the diversity of its offerings. On average, one can get a case of the top Super Tuscans (Tignanello, Sassicaia, Ornellaia) for £2,129; the First Growths (Mouton Rothschild, Haut-Brion and Margaux) cost more than double.

The complementary performance of Piedmont and Tuscany

Two major regions have played pivotal roles in shaping the Italian fine wine market in complementary ways: Piedmont and Tuscany.

Piedmont’s top wines, chiefly made from the native Nebbiolo grape, are produced in limited quantities, with rarity and exclusivity driving demand and prices. The dynamics behind the region’s performance evoke comparisons with Burgundy (and its signature Pinot Noir), where scarcity intensifies the allure. Historically, Piedmont has been the chief driver behind Italy’s rising prices.

Meanwhile, Tuscany has greatly contributed to cementing Italy’s place on the global fine wine stage, and its increasing market share. The brand strength of the Super Tuscans, combined with high quality, greater volumes and solid liquidity, have given the Italian market a significant boost.

The best performing brands in the last year

Piedmont

*Explore the performance of different wines on Wine Track, our comprehensive fine wine index that enables you to identify investment grade wines, spot trends and wine investment opportunities.

Marchesi di Barolo Barolo Riserva leads the way among Piedmont’s biggest risers, up an impressive 128% in the last year. However, the rest of the wines have made gains between 39% and 47%.

Tuscany

From Tuscany, Bibi Graetz Testamatta has seen the biggest rise in value in the last year, up 93%. The wine has an attractive point of entry, with an average case price of £1,530. Some of its best value vintages include 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2016. The 2021 vintage is expected to be released next month, as part of this autumn’s La Place de Bordeaux campaign.

The rest of Tuscany’s best performers have risen between 40% and 67%, with Antinori’s Guado al Tasso at the higher price end and Montevertine Rosso being the lowest priced.

The significant growth observed in individual brands from both regions accentuates Italy’s investment potential. Despite the recent bearish trend in the market, Italy has continued to deliver and attract greater demand.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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The role of wine ratings in fine wine investment

  • Wine ratings play a crucial role in wine investment, with high scores from influential critics impacting demand and market value.
  • To use ratings effectively, investors should consider both the initial score and potential for growth.
  • The Wine Track score provides a broader view of a wine’s quality across multiple vintages and publications, helping investors assess wines at a glance.

For many investors, fine wine offers a fascinating, enjoyable, and potentially profitable venture. However, the wine market is highly nuanced, requiring a keen understanding of various factors influencing wine values. One such factor, critical to successful wine investment, is the wine rating system. This score, given by wine critics to a particular bottle or vintage, can dramatically impact its market value and demand.

Wine ratings, typically on a 100-point scale, offer a quantitative measure of the wine’s quality. The ratings of influential critics such as Robert Parker, Neal Martin and Wine Spectator can have a significant impact on the market value of a wine. This is why savvy investors pay close attention to these scores, as they can quickly identify high potential investments.

The power and influence of ratings

However, it’s not enough to simply buy wines with high ratings. The rating system is far more nuanced, with the potential for dramatic shifts in a wine’s rating over time. A wine may be rated in its youth, then again as it matures. In some cases, a wine’s rating may increase as it develops, making it an excellent investment if purchased early. Conversely, a wine that doesn’t mature as expected can see its rating (and value) drop.

How critics have moved the wine market

Some historical examples illustrate the power that critics wield in the wine investment market:

  • Robert Parker and the 1982 Bordeaux vintage: Parker’s high scores for the 1982 Bordeaux wines went against the grain of other critics, and as the wines matured and proved him right, their market values soared.
  • James Suckling and Super Tuscan wines: Suckling’s high scores and positive reviews in the 1980s and 90s for these non-traditional Italian wines helped elevate their status and market prices.
  • Jancis Robinson and Austrian wines: Robinson’s praise for the quality and complexity of wines from Austria increased their international profile and market value.
  • Robert Parker and Napa Valley: Parker’s positive reviews of Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon and Bordeaux blends in the 1990s contributed to increased demand and higher prices for these wines.
  • Wines Spectator’s Wine of the Year: Wine Spectator, one of the most influential wine publications globally, selects its “Wine of the Year” based on quality, value, availability, and an X-factor they call “excitement.” The wine usually becomes a hot commodity in the secondary market, breaking all-time trading record within the day of the announcement, like Marques Murrieta Castillo Ygay Gran Reserva Especial 2010 in 2020.

Knowing the critics and selling wine

To use ratings effectively, investors should consider both the initial score and potential for growth. Some wines, especially those from renowned producers in prestigious regions like Bordeaux or Burgundy, are consistently well-rated and have a history of aging well. However, there are also opportunities to find “sleeper” wines – those with moderate initial ratings that improve significantly over time.

A key part of understanding and using wine ratings is understanding the critics. Each has a different palate and preference, and their ratings reflect these tastes. Robert Parker, for instance, was known for favouring bold, robust wines from Bordeaux, California, and the Rhône. However, since Parker’s retirement, the wine criticism landscape has been undergoing a gradual shift, reflecting changing consumer preferences and a growing appreciation for diversity in wine styles, such as lighter and lower-alcohol wines.

The Wine Track score – ratings at a glance

Now it is also possible to access a brand’s average score thanks to the Wine Track score. The Wine Track score provides a broader view of a wine’s quality across multiple vintages, which can be particularly useful for potential investors seeking a more comprehensive evaluation of a wine’s investment potential.

It aggregates multiple wine vintages of a wine to create a score out of 100. It unifies more than 100 wine critics’ scores from 12 global publications that use different methodologies. By providing a combined score, it helps investors assess wines on the fine wine market at a glance.

In conclusion, while wine ratings are not the sole determinant of a wine’s investment potential, they play an integral part in the wine investment strategy. With careful consideration and a well-rounded understanding of the wine market, investors can utilise these ratings to guide their purchases and optimise their portfolios.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

 

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Champagne’s financial bubbles: rising costs spark concerns over affordability

Champagne
Champagne
  • Rising production costs and inflationary pressures in Champagne have raised concerns around its accessibility and its appeal to consumers.
  • Higher interest rates pose challenges for financing grape supplies, potentially eroding profit margins for smaller Champagne producers.
  • Champagne’s investment market has also been undergoing a similar shift, which has diminished its relative affordability compared to other fine wine regions.

Champagne has experienced a period of remarkable success, with a new record turnover set for the region in 2022, The Drinks Business highlighted in an article this week. However, leading figures in the region have noted that inflationary pressures and rising production costs could potentially make Champagne too expensive. This is a particular concern at the lower end of the market where fixed costs make up a larger proportion of the value of the wine and the need to keep prices affordable is more pronounced. But prices have come under pressure in the secondary market too, which has shifted its dynamics.

Champagne’s rising costs spark concerns among smaller producers

The escalating prices of grapes, along with increasing costs of labour, energy, packaging materials, and glass, have placed significant financial pressures on some Champagne houses. According to the article, the price of grapes from the 2022 harvest rose by as much as 10% compared to the much smaller 2021 vintage.

Rising interest rates, which were sitting below 1% two years ago and have now reached 3% and higher, have added extra pressure on financing grape supplies, potentially eroding profit margins of smaller producers. Meanwhile, various packaging materials, including paper, foils, cases, and glass, are up by around 40%.

The rising production costs may lead to further price increases for Champagne. This situation raises concerns around Champagne’s accessibility and its appeal to consumers. Some producers fear that higher prices could deter customers and potentially drive them towards alternative sparkling wines.

The shifting dynamics of Champagne’s investment market

The dynamics of Champagne’s secondary market have also been undergoing a clear shift. Previously, everything seemed to work in Champagne’s favour: abundant stock, strong distribution, consistent demand, and relative value compared to other fine wines.

Speculators have taken advantage of Champagne’s strengths, fuelled by a string of excellent vintages that increased demand. This has altered the traditional rules of the Champagne market, as speculators often hold onto their stock without consuming it, resulting in potential oversupply. The sustainability of rising prices in the face of a potential stock overhang can present a challenge.

Meanwhile, the rising price of Champagne has diminished its relative price advantage compared to other fine wine regions. Previously considered an affordable entry point into the world of fine wine, Champagne’s average prices now rival those of Bordeaux. For instance, the average case price of Krug Vintage Brut (£5,001) is higher than that of the First Growth Château Haut-Brion (£4,802).

Champagne vs Bordeaux

*Over the last five years, Champagne prices are up 76.8%, compared to 15.3% for Bordeaux. Champagne experienced stellar price performance between mid-2021 and the end of last year. Year-to-date, its index is down 9.1%.

Some producers have also displayed an ambition to raise prices. Notable brands, such as Philipponnat’s Clos des Goisses and Lanson’s Le Clos Lanson, have joined La Place de Bordeaux, signaling their intent to push their brands. Last year, François Pinault’s Artemis Group acquired a majority stake in Champagne Jacquesson. While this highlighted Champagne’s investment potential, it also indicated a departure from offering wines at entry-level prices.

All of this presents a complex landscape for Champagne’s future pricing and market positioning; particularly, for smaller more affordable producers, less able to spreads costs over multiple products and absorb the rising costs. Is the era of affordable Champagne over?

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