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Fine wine market trends amid economic shifts in Q1 2024

Fine wine market

The following article is an extract from our Q1 2024 Fine Wine Report which will be published in full later this week.

  • The industry benchmark Liv-ex 100 index fell 1% in Q1 2024, a milder decline than the 4.2% dip at the end of last year.
  • Bond and equity markets rallied in anticipation of interest rate cuts by major central banks.
  • Over the past twenty years, the Liv-ex 1000’s most significant year-on-year dip was only 15%, less severe than that of major stock indices like the S&P 500 (-45%).

After a challenging start to the year, the global economy is showing signs of resilience and potential growth. As we moved past the first quarter of 2024, both bond and equity markets rallied in anticipation of interest rate cuts by major central banks. Notably, sectors like the fine wine market are expected to benefit from these shifts, although the impact has not yet materialised.

The fine wine market in Q1 2024

The industry benchmark, Liv-ex 100 index, saw a modest decline of 1% in Q1 2024, an improvement from the 4.2% dip observed at the end of the previous year. This index experienced a slight drop of 0.3% in January and 1.1% in February but recovered in March with a 0.4% increase, marking its first rise in twelve months. Influential movers included Promontory and Dominus from Napa Valley, Super Tuscan Sassicaia, and Clos des Papes Châteauneuf-du-Pape. Despite this recovery, the fine wine market’s performance still lags behind mainstream financial markets.

Comparing mainstream markets

Mainstream indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the S&P 500 have shown remarkable strength over the past year. Their annual growth from March 2023 to March 2024 ranks in the top 10% of year-on-year periods this century.

However, bond and equity markets experienced heightened volatility at the beginning of the year, due to geopolitical risks like the Middle East conflict and ongoing uncertainty around interest rates. This confluence of factors boosted the safe-haven asset Gold which has extended its run on buying momentum.

Liv-ex 100 vs mainstream markets and Gold

A decade of the Liv-ex 1000 index

Celebrating ten years since its official launch in January 2014, the Liv-ex 1000 index provides two decades of insight into fine wine prices, encompassing a wide range of regions including Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, the Rhône, Italy, and the rest of the world (Spain, Portugal, the USA, and Australia).

Over the past twenty years, while the Liv-ex 1000 has seen 64 year-on-year declines, its most significant drop was only 15%, considerably less severe than that of major stock indices like the S&P 500, which once fell by 45%.

On the upside, the Liv-ex 1000’s best annual performance showed gains of 38%, comparable to those of major indices like the FTSE 100 and the Dow Jones, and its average growth rate of 8.4% is higher than many mainstream markets, only trailing behind the S&P 500.

Liv-ex 1000 vs mainstream markets

As the global markets navigate through turbulent waters, the nuanced performance of the fine wine sector, detailed in our comprehensive Q1 2024 report, continues to offer valuable perspectives on both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Stay tuned for the full report later this week.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Finding value in the Bordeaux second wines

Lafite Rothschild
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  • The average First Growth case price is £5,300, while second wines come in at £1,941.
  • Le Clarence de Haut-Brion is the most affordable second wine.
  • Le Petit Mouton has been the best performer over the last decade.

Following our article last week examining the performance and value of the Bordeaux First Growths, we now turn to an important but often overlooked category within Bordeaux wines: second wines. These wines offer investors a compelling balance between brand prestige and affordability, making them increasingly relevant in today’s fine wine market.

This analysis explores what second wines are, how they compare to their Grand Vins, how they are priced, and why their long-term performance makes them attractive within a wine investment portfolio.

What are second wines?

Most leading Bordeaux châteaux – particularly those classified under the 1855 Classification – produce more than one wine per vintage. Alongside the Grand Vin, many estates bottle a second wine (sometimes referred to as a “2nd wine” or “wine or second label”), and a handful may even produce third or fourth wines depending on vineyard size and stylistic goals.

Second wines generally come from:

  • younger vines, which may not yet deliver the depth required for the Grand Vin

  • vineyard parcels that do not fully meet Grand Vin quality in a given year

  • fruit that is stylistically better suited to an earlier-drinking profile

Despite this, second wines often receive the same technical treatment – from vineyard work to vinification – as the flagship label. They may use fruit from the same renowned terroirs, the same cellars, and benefit from the expertise of the same winemaking team.

For investors, this means second wines offer brand access at a significantly lower price, while still carrying the hallmarks of top Bordeaux estates.

Second wines: Pricing and Value Dynamics

Price Comparison: First Growths vs. Second Wines

The average First Growth case price sits around £5,300, reflecting their iconic status within Bordeaux’s hierarchy. In contrast, the average price for a second wine is £1,941 – less than half the price, yet still benefiting from strong brand associations.

This pricing gap offers investors a more approachable entry point to the top tier of growth wines, particularly within Saint-Julien, Pauillac, and Pessac-Léognan, where some of the world’s most admired estates are located.

Where prices diverge

Interestingly, the price hierarchy of the Grand Vin does not always replicate itself in the second-wine market.

Second wines prices and scores

For example:

  • Château Latour produces one of the most expensive Grand Vins after Lafite Rothschild.

  • Yet its second wine, Les Forts de Latour, sits mid-range in pricing compared with its peers.

  • Meanwhile, Le Petit Mouton (from Mouton Rothschild) and Carruades de Lafite (from Lafite Rothschild) are priced higher, reflecting exceptionally strong brand demand.

 

Similarly, Le Clarence de Haut-Brion – the second wine of Château Haut-Brion, one of the most historically significant estates in the 1855 classification – remains the most affordable of the second wines despite its pedigree.

This shows that market demand, not just classification, shapes pricing for second wines.

Scores and price-per-point

When examining value for money, score-based metrics offer useful perspective.

  • Le Clarence de Haut-Brion holds the lowest price-per-point (£16) among second wines, mirroring Haut-Brion’s reputation for over-delivering relative to price.

  • However, while Haut-Brion Grand Vin scores very highly on the Wine Track Index, Le Clarence’s score is comparatively lower.

This disconnect illustrates a key point: For second wines, price does not always correlate closely with critical ratings.

Instead, a different dynamic typically governs their appreciation.

Second wines behave differently from the Grand Vin

With Grand Vins, price is strongly driven by quality, scores, and global demand.

For second wines, however, the dominant relationship is between price and age. As bottles are consumed and availability reduces, the scarcity effect naturally lifts prices.

In this way, second wines often follow the traditional wine investment ageing curve, appreciating steadily regardless of whether they score as highly as their Grand Vin counterparts.

They also present:

  • brand access for collectors who may be unwilling to open a £500+ bottle

  • earlier drinking windows, which attract both consumers and restaurants

  • strong demand on release, especially for estates like Mouton Rothschild, Haut-Brion, and Lafite Rothschild

Second wines therefore fulfil both a consumption and investment role, ultimately supporting more stable long-term price performance.

Performance of the Bordeaux second wines

Over the past decade, second wines from the top estates in Saint-Julien, Pauillac, Saint-Estèphe, and Pessac-Léognan have shown strong appreciation.

Top performers (10-year performance)

  1. Le Petit Mouton (Mouton Rothschild)
    +111.9% – The strongest performer, reflecting exceptional brand equity and global demand.

  2. Le Clarence de Haut-Brion (Château Haut-Brion)
    +76.2% – Undervalued on release, this wine has delivered impressive mid-term returns.

  3. Carruades de Lafite (Lafite Rothschild)
    +64.7% – One of the most globally recognised second wines, with strong demand across Asia.

  4. Pavillon Rouge du Château Margaux (Margaux)
    +63.1% – A consistently sought-after second label with stable year-on-year appreciation.

Second wines performance

These figures highlight how second wines from Bordeaux’s most prestigious châteaux can generate meaningful returns, often outperforming mid-tier Grand Vins and offering a lower-risk route into blue-chip Bordeaux.

Why Bordeaux second wines matter for investors

Second wines sit at the intersection of:

  • prestige (access to top-tier châteaux)

  • affordability (compared to Grand Vins)

  • liquidity (strong global recognition)

  • age-driven price increases (steady appreciation over time)

For investors building a Bordeaux wine portfolio, second wines provide:

  • diversification across vintages and price points

  • exposure to world-class estates without First Growth pricing

  • earlier consumption windows (driving market demand)

  • long-term stability and predictable growth

In short, second wines are one of the most efficient ways to gain exposure to the upper tier of Bordeaux wines while balancing cost and performance.

Final thoughts

Second wines from Bordeaux – whether Les Forts de Latour, Le Petit Mouton, Pavillon Rouge, Carruades de Lafite, or Le Clarence de Haut-Brion – offer compelling value for both collectors and investors. While they may not always achieve the prestige of their Grand Vins, their strong brand associations, increased affordability, and favourable ageing dynamics make them attractive assets within a diversified wine investment strategy.

As global demand continues to grow, particularly for leading estates in the Médoc and Graves, second growth Bordeaux wines and second labels are likely to remain a highly relevant segment of the fine wine market.

FAQ: Second Wines

What are second wines in Bordeaux?

Second wines are wines made by top Bordeaux châteaux using fruit from younger vines or parcels not selected for the Grand Vin.

Are second wines considered good for wine investment?

Yes. Many second growth Bordeaux wines and second labels have demonstrated strong long-term performance.

How do second wines differ from the Grand Vin?

While they come from the same vineyards and winemaking teams, second wines are generally earlier-drinking and less complex. The key difference is selection – the Grand Vin uses only the highest-quality fruit.

Why are second wines cheaper than First Growths?

Price differences reflect hierarchy, brand prestige, and selection. First Growths such as Lafite Rothschild, Mouton Rothschild, and Haut-Brion command premium pricing due to their status in the 1855 Classification. Their second wines, like Carruades de Lafite or Le Petit Mouton, offer similar pedigree at a fraction of the cost.

Do second wines age well?

Yes, though typically not as long as their Grand Vins. They often reach peak condition earlier, making them attractive for both drinkers and investors.

Which second wines show the best historical performance?

Over the past decade, leading performers include:

  • Le Petit Mouton de Mouton Rothschild

  • Le Clarence de Haut-Brion

  • Carruades de Lafite

  • Pavillon Rouge du Château Margaux

These wines have delivered returns between 63% and 112%, depending on estate and vintage.

Are second wines a good entry point for Bordeaux investment?

Absolutely. They offer affordability, strong brand recognition, and proven liquidity, making them one of the most efficient ways to gain exposure to top-tier Bordeaux wines.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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History of Burgundy’s price performance

Burgundy history
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The following article is an extract from our Burgundy regional wine investment report.

  • Burgundy is the region with the highest average bottle prices.
  • It is the best-performing fine wine region, considerably outperforming industry benchmarks.
  • This article analyses its historic performance, the drivers behind its success, and what this might meant for the future of the region.

Burgundy has earned an impressive reputation in the fine wine investment landscape. The region is the outright leader when it comes to average bottle prices and the long-term performance of its wines.

The Burgundy 150 index, which tracks the prices of the last ten vintages across 15 Burgundy brands, is the leading Liv-ex regional index, continually outperforming Bordeaux, Italy and Champagne. It is up over 650% since its inception.

Although the index only comprises a narrow pool of highly traded wines, it provides an indication of the direction of Burgundy prices. During its impressive rise, the index experienced only one significant drop of 15%, giving investors confidence that its punctuated equilibrium will continue.

Historic performance of Burgundy prices

The Liv-ex Burgundy 150 index doubled from early 2006 to mid/late 2008 — the first awakening of the Burgundy market as a new generation of wealthy consumers started to dominate the collectors’ market. This was at least in part driven by the volume of information available to them online from reviewers like Robert Parker and Allen Meadows and a greater focus on fine wine from the major auction houses.

After the 2008 financial crisis, Burgundy was somewhat left in the shadow. With the opening of the Chinese market, Bordeaux grew massively between 2008 and 2011. When Bordeaux fell from its 2011 peak, a new generation of investors flocked to Burgundy, seeking growth and breadth to their holdings.

From 2016 to late-2018, the value of the Burgundy 150 index doubled again. This can be attributed to growing liquidity in the sector and its recognition as a viable high-return investment. The region experienced a period of decline in 2019/2020, after a 15-year period without any significant downward movements. Some of this retreat has been related to profit taking and, later on, to the Covid-19 pandemic. Burgundy quickly made up for lost time in 2021 and 2022, with factors such as increased at-home consumption of fine wine, growing online trade, and rising liquidity contributing to its success. The index hit an all-time high in October 2022 at 909.4.

The market at large experienced another period of contraction in 2023, due to a combination of macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical conflicts, the lasting effects of the pandemic, high inflation and rising interest rates. Burgundy was the hardest hit region.

However, the overall direction of prices remains upwards as the trendline in the chart below shows. Such periods are advantageous times for Burgundy buyers who are usually able to find more stock at lower prices.

Burgundy 150 and price trendlines

To find out more about the investment market for Burgundy wines, read the full report here.

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Which Bordeaux First Growth has the lowest price per point?

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  • The price-per-point metric allows for a comparison of wines based on their market price and perceived quality.
  • This article examines the prices per point of the most liquid group of wines – the Bordeaux First Growths.
  • It also looks at their historic market performances.

The price-per-point metric offers a powerful way to compare wines based on their market price relative to critic quality scores. By dividing the average case price by the average critic score, collectors and investors can identify which wines offer the best value, regardless of prestige or brand strength. This approach is especially insightful when analysing the First Growth Bordeaux châteaux, the most liquid and historically significant group within the wines of Bordeaux.

The First Growths – Château Lafite Rothschild, Château Mouton Rothschild, Château Margaux, Château Haut-Brion, and Château Latour – were formalised in the official Classification of 1855, a system that still shapes global perceptions of quality today. These estates sit at the top of the Bordeaux hierarchy, alongside the region’s premier cru properties, commanding some of the highest prices in the fine wine market. Despite belonging to the same classification, their relative value differs substantially when measured through price per point.

First Growth Bordeaux – price per point

An average case price of £4,429 makes Château Haut-Brion the most affordable of the First Growths. Meanwhile, it has the highest average Wine Track score of 95.9 points. While there is divergence in prices and scores on a vintage-specific level, Château Haut-Brion has the lowest price per point among the First Growths overall.

First Growths average prices and scores

At the other end of the spectrum, Château Lafite Rothschild has the highest price per point of £64, owing to the highest average case price of £6,129 and a Wine Track score of 95.8.

Château Margaux, Château Latour, and Château Mouton Rothschild sit between these two extremes. Each offers exceptional critic scores and historic vintages, though their price-per-point efficiency varies depending on market cycles, En Primeur release prices, and vintage-specific trading volumes. Investors often compare these cru classé wines not only by absolute cost but by consistency of score relative to long-term performance.

What does this mean for the First Growths’ performance?

Historically, all First Growths have followed similar trajectories in terms of market highs and lows.
Key patterns include:

  • A dramatic surge during the China-led bull market (H1 2011)

  • A deep pullback in the years following

  • A recovery after the Brexit referendum, stabilising at higher levels

  • A recent decline in line with broader fine wine indices

The Liv-ex 50, which tracks the First Growths, is down 15.3% over the past year, mirroring the performance of the broader Liv-ex 1000 index.

Among the individual estates:

  • Lafite Rothschild saw the sharpest rise during the 2011 peak

  • It has also seen the largest recent fall (-19%)

  • Haut-Brion, despite never reaching the same peaks, has been more stable – dipping only 10% in the last year

This relative stability reinforces Haut-Brion’s status as a high-value First Growth brand. Its lower price per point and historically steadier performance make it appealing to collectors seeking reduced volatility without sacrificing Bordeaux pedigree.

First Growths performance

First Growth wines that offer value perform the best

In the case of Haut-Brion, value plays an important role in market performance. POP wines (those with a lower price per point) have outperformed the rest over 15 years. These include vintages 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2019 (the only prime vintage among the POP wines).

The second-best-performing index comprises older ‘prime’ vintages – wines with high scores pre-2000. However, this index has shown higher volatility due to the limited availability and trading volumes of these wines.

The index comprising younger ‘on’ vintages like 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2020 has underperformed the rest of the pack. However, these wines have also had less time in the market and their evolution is yet to be seen.

Haut-Brion vintage performance

Historically, Bordeaux prime vintages often show accelerated growth after 10–15 years in bottle, meaning these more recent releases could see substantial performance shifts as they move further from their en primeur release period.

In conclusion, price per point offers an effective way to assess both value and quality, helping buyers look beyond brand prestige to uncover genuine opportunities. However, investors should also consider:

  • long-term market behaviour

  • storage and provenance

  • volatility of older vintages

  • the impact of global economic cycles

When combined with historical performance analysis, price per point becomes a powerful tool for building a balanced fine wine portfolio – identifying stable performers like Haut-Brion, premium prestige wines like Lafite Rothschild, and long-term growth opportunities across the First Growth category.

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Inside Champagne’s wine investment market

  • Champagne has enjoyed rising popularity as an investment in recent years, which has been reflected in its price performance.
  • The Liv-ex Champagne 50 index has considerably outperformed industry benchmarks.
  • While quality is important, brands and age are the most significant drivers behind its performance.

Champagne has enjoyed rising popularity as an investment in recent years, which has been reflected in its price performance. The Liv-ex Champagne 50 index, which tracks some of the most sought-after wines including Krug Vintage Brut, Bollinger La Grande Année, Dom Pérignon, Louis Roederer Cristal, and Taittinger Comtes de Champagne among others, has significantly outperformed global benchmarks. Over the last decade, the Champagne 50 index is up 108.9%, compared to 41.4% for the Liv-ex 100 and 64.3% for the broader Liv-ex 1000 index.

These numbers clearly demonstrate that Champagne is a smart addition to any diversified investment portfolio and should no longer be considered just a celebratory indulgence.

Champagne’s price performance

Much of Champagne’s remarkable performance happened between mid-2020 and the end of 2022, when the index appreciated 90.9% (May 2020 – October 2022). This period was marked by great uncertainty, from the Covid-19 pandemic, through war in Ukraine, rising inflation and recession. As the ultimate ‘luxury good’ in the fine wine market, Champagne performed particularly well and its rising prices did little to temper demand.

Since then, prices have calmed but demand remains strong. Champagne dominated the list of the top-traded wines on Liv-ex in 2023, with Louis Roederer Cristal 2015 leading the value rankings, and Dom Pérignon 2013 – by volume.

Champagne vs fine wine indices

Supply and demand dynamics

Demand for Champagne has led to increases in its overall production from 50 million bottles in the 1970s to over 300 million today. Of these, Moët & Chandon contributes over 30 million bottles per year, making it the world’s largest Champagne producer.

Despite relatively healthy production volumes, the availability of vintage Champagne is limited (due to its staggering consumption market, which includes hospitality and entertainment industry buyers). This further enhances its desirability as an investment.

As it ages, its quality improves; as it is consumed, its supply decreases. This dynamic brings about an inverse supply curve – the ideal scenario for investors.

Smaller initial costs are another positive, as Champagne offers both new and experienced investors relative affordability. Although prices have moved considerably in recent years, the average case of top Champagne costs less than a case of the top wines of Bordeaux, Burgundy, California or Italy. Meanwhile, the region offers better returns.

What makes Champagne investment unique

The fine wine market has long been influenced by major critics. While critics do play a part in the evolution of Champagne prices, brands and age have proven to be more significant performance drivers.

Champagne houses that have an established and historically proven identity are already ahead of the game; however, endorsements from sources such as royal weddings, celebrities and high-visibility restaurants have paved the way for emerging cuvées.

Champagne is a more direct market than ones like Bordeaux as there are no négociants; the structure in Champagne is such that over 90% of producers are now also distributors.

Thanks to its artisanal qualities, ‘grower Champagne’ is a newly expanding sector (small estates where the brand identity is centred around the vigneron themselves). Leading this group are the likes of Jacques Selosse, Egly-Ouriet and Ulysse Collin.

An added benefit to Champagne’s appeal is its drinkability. If an investor simply cannot resist popping the cork, Champagne can be readily consumed much earlier than premium investment wines, further diminishing supply and driving prices up.

To find out more about the investment market for Champagne, read the full report here.

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Ten years on: Neal Martin reviews Bordeaux 2014

Bordeaux
  • Neal Martin recently reviewed Bordeaux 2014 ten years on.
  • The critic noted that many of the wines have evolved faster than expected.
  • He declared it a Left Bank vintage and gave his highest score to Mouton Rothschild.

Vinous recently published Neal Martin’s assessment of Bordeaux 2014 following two consecutive tastings, including the annual Southwold 10-years-on event.

Martin’s overall impression was that the wines were ‘more unpredictable than other vintages’, and ones to ‘approach with modest expectations’. For him, many of them deserve drinking in the near future, but some are yet to deliver more.

On the question of Left vs Right Bank, the critic noted that the Left Bank has proven to be more consistent. When it comes to best-performing appellations, his pick was Saint-Julien.

Bordeaux 2014 ageing potential

Ten years on, the 2014 vintage has ‘evolved faster than envisaged’, according to Martin. The critic said that ‘it twinkled brightly in its youth, but many of its alumni were not predisposed toward longevity’. He further noted that ‘it certainly lacks the legs of, say, 2010 or 2016, perhaps even 2012 or 2017’.

Martin singled out wines that still have a life ahead of them and will be ‘intriguing to revisit at 15 years’, including Léoville Poyferré, Mouton Rothschild, Lafleur and Grand-Puy-Lacoste.

Favourite wines

For Martin, the wines that have ‘much more to offer’ and sit ‘up the hierarchy’ were Cheval Blanc, Figeac, Ausone and Pavie. ‘L’Eglise-Clinet, Lafleur and in particular, Vieux Château Certan, excel over in Pomerol, likewise Petrus and Clos l’Eglise,’ the critic added.

However, he warned that ‘none of the aforementioned ranks among their best wines’.

A personal favourite from Pessac-Léognan was Domaine de Chevalier. He also liked Pape-Clément and Haut-Bailly. His top-scoring wines can be seen in the table below.

Neal Martin's top-scoring Bordeaux 2014 wines

Mouton Rothschild received the highest score of 97 points. Martin argued that it was ‘contender for wine of the vintage’ and ‘one of a handful of wines that transcends the limitations of the season, partly due to the skills of former winemaker Philippe Dhalluin’.

The critic also said that ‘the 2014 Grand-Puy-Lacoste is outstanding and performed neck-and-neck with the First Growths’.

Bordeaux 2014 – performance since release

While the vintage may not sit up with the very best like 2010 or 2016, many of the wines offer relative value and a lower-than-average entry point into Bordeaux’s top brands.

Moreover, some have delivered handsome returns since release. Beyond the obvious performers of Carruades de Lafite (208.3%) and Petit Mouton (173.1%) and wines like Figeac (164.5%) which have benefited from changing classification, there is considerable growth to be found in some 2014s. For instance, Beychevelle has risen 165.4%, Calon Ségur – 113.4%, La Conseillante – 93.0%, and Canon-La Gaffelière – 80.3%. To see overall brand performances, visit Wine Track.

Bordeaux 2014 performance since release

WineCap’s independent market analysis showcases the value of portfolio diversification and the stability offered by investing in wine. Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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Inside the USA’s wine investment market

US wines

The following article is an extract from our USA regional wine investment report.

  • Today, the USA is one of the key fine wine investment regions.
  • Its share of secondary market trade has risen from 0.1% in 2010 to around 8% this year.
  • Demand has been stimulated by a string of good vintages in the past decade, high critic scores, and expanding distribution.

Today, the USA is one of the key fine wine investment regions. Its share of secondary market trade has risen from 0.1% in 2010 to about 8% this year, and an increasing number of previously overlooked wineries are now showing investment-worthy returns.

Inside the USA’s investment market

California has long been the driver behind the USA’s ever-growing presence in the fine wine investment landscape, accounting for roughly 99% of the country’s secondary market trade. Buying demand has been largely UK and US-driven and centred around the top names: Screaming Eagle, Opus One, Dominus, Harlan Estate, Promontory, and Scarecrow.

Price differentials

California is the second-most-expensive fine wine region after Burgundy, based on the average price of its leading estates. However, there are big differences in pricing between the region’s top names.

At the time of writing, the average case price of Screaming Eagle Cabernet Sauvignon is £39,117, compared to £7,399 for Promontory, £3,764 for Opus One, £2,773 for Dominus, and £2,719 for Ridge Monte Bello. To explore average trade prices, visit our indexing tool Wine Track.

Price performance

Prices for Californian fine wines have risen slowly and steadily. Over the last 15 years, the Liv-ex California 50 index which tracks the price movements of the last 10 physical vintages across five of the most traded brands (Dominus, Opus One, Harlan, Ridge, and Screaming Eagle) has outperformed both the Liv-ex 100 and Liv-ex 1000 indices. The California 50 is up 166.2%, compared to 71.6% for the Liv-ex 100 and 116.6% for the Liv-ex 1000. Moreover, over the long and short term, California has fared better than Bordeaux as an investment, yielding higher returns.

The best brands for investment

Among the most popular labels, Ridge Monte Bello has been the best-performing Californian wine, up 121.9% in the last decade. It has been followed by Screaming Eagle Cabernet Sauvignon with a 103.3% rise and Harlan, up 91.1%. All the wines in the chart below have risen over 80% in the last decade.

US wines performance

However, other producers beyond the most traded names have also been making waves. Caymus Cabernet Sauvignon has risen an impressive 154.8%, while Dunn Howell Mountain Cabernet Sauvignon is up 137.5% in the last decade. This data suggests that there is a significant number of American wines beyond the most popular names that can deliver healthy investment returns.

California: A 100-point region

Price performance has been influenced by ‘cult’ status and vintage quality. California regularly tops critic rankings as the region with the most 100-point wines. Relatively consistent climate has led to less vintage variation than in other dominant fine-wine producing regions. Major critic publications like Wine Advocate and Wine Enthusiast highlight 2001, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021 as particularly good.

To find out more about the investment market for US wines, read the full report here.

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Navigating currency volatility in the fine wine market

Currency volatility and fine wine
  • Buying demand for fine wine is impacted by the global economy, where currency volatility plays a significant role.
  • Fine wine indices are frequently quoted in sterling (GBP), making the currency’s strength or weakness a pivotal factor affecting both domestic and international transactions.
  • A stronger pound makes UK-sourced fine wines more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially dampening demand and leading to falls in the indices.

Although uncorrelated to mainstream markets, the fine wine market does not exist in a vacuum. Buying demand and investment interest are impacted by the global economy, where currency volatility plays a significant role.

For investors, understanding the impact of currency movements, especially in a market where prices and indices are often denominated in sterling, is crucial. Here’s how currency volatility influences the fine wine market and strategies investors can employ to navigate these turbulent waters.

The impact of currency volatility

Currency volatility refers to the fluctuations in the value of one currency relative to another. For the fine wine market, which is global, these fluctuations can have a pronounced impact. Prices and indices for fine wine are frequently quoted in sterling (GBP), making the British currency’s strength or weakness a pivotal factor affecting both domestic and international transactions.

When the pound weakens against major currencies like the dollar or euro, fine wine prices in the UK become more attractive to foreign buyers. This increased demand from abroad can drive up prices, as buyers look to capitalise on favourable exchange rates to purchase high-quality wines at lower relative costs. Conversely, when the pound strengthens, as is the case currently, fine wine prices can seem more expensive to foreign buyers, potentially leading to a decrease in international demand and a stabilisation or even fall in the indices that track them.

Real-world implications

Consider the aftermath of the Brexit referendum in June 2016, when the pound experienced a significant drop against the dollar and euro. This scenario offered a golden opportunity for foreign investors, particularly from the US and Asia, who found that their purchasing power had increased overnight. As a result, demand for fine wines priced in sterling surged, driving up fine wine prices.

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 Index, which is the broadest measure of the market and tracks the price movement of 1000 of the most sought-after fine wines, showed upward price movement of 14% in the six months following the referendum. Its rise in sterling was uninterrupted until August 2017. In just over a year, the index rose 21.7%.

This trend was largely fuelled by foreign investors taking advantage of the weaker pound to expand their collections.

Sterling’s strength and its effects

On the flip side, periods of sterling strength present a different picture. A stronger pound makes UK-sourced fine wines more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially dampening demand. This has contributed to a fall in the Liv-ex 1000 index, denominated in sterling. However, when seen in other currencies, the fall in fine wine prices is less sharp.

Liv-ex 1000 index in different currencies

The Liv-ex 1000 index peaked in October 2022 in sterling; since then, the index has dipped 17.5%.

But the losses since its peak have been smaller in alternative currencies. The index hit its highest point in euro in June 2022 and has fallen 16.4% since. In US dollar, the index peaked in March 2023; since then, it has fallen 14%. In Japanese Yen, the Liv-ex 1000 peaked in May 2023 and has fallen 10% since.

A global market with local prices

While fine wine prices may be quoted in sterling, the global nature of the market means that prices inherently hold their value in alternative currencies. This resilience is partly because the value of fine wine is not solely dependent on currency movements but also on factors such as vintage quality, brand reputation, and scarcity.

For instance, a classic Bordeaux vintage will maintain its allure and value to collectors worldwide, regardless of short-term currency fluctuations. This universal appeal ensures that while prices in sterling may rise or fall with the pound’s strength, the intrinsic value of fine wines remains recognised across currencies.

Strategies for investors

Investors can leverage currency volatility to their advantage by staying informed about global economic trends and currency forecasts. Purchasing fine wines when the pound is weak can offer significant value, while selling during periods of sterling strength may maximize returns.

Currency volatility is a double-edged sword in the fine wine market, presenting both opportunities and challenges. Whether taking advantage of a weaker pound to acquire coveted wines or diversifying investments to mitigate risks, the key lies in informed decision-making and a keen eye on the ever-changing economic landscape.

Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

 

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The importance of wine storage

wine storage
  • Storage is arguably the most important factor in preserving the quality of a fine wine and is thus fundamentally linked to its value as an investment.
  • A well-documented history of storage and ownership can significantly increase a wine’s value, serving as proof of its authenticity and condition.
  • Storing wine in-bond has multiple benefits, including deferred taxes, easier international trading and guaranteed provenance.

Wine storage has undergone significant transformation over the years, evolving from traditional cellars in private homes to sophisticated, climate-controlled facilities that cater to the needs of serious collectors and investors. The way wine is stored can greatly impact its quality, and by extension, its value as an investment.

Why is wine storage important

A large part of fine wine’s performance as an asset is down to its ability to improve as it ages. If the quality increases in time, so does its value.

Storage is arguably the most important factor in preserving the quality of a wine. If a bottle is stored improperly, the opposite can happen. Fluctuating temperatures, exposure to sunlight, vibrations and humidity can all degrade the quality of the wine and lead it to lose its value.

By storing your assets in professional dedicated wine storage facilities, you can guarantee that when the time comes to sell, it will be in the best possible condition. This will give the final consumer confidence that the wine is of the expected quality, defending its future value.

The evolution of wine storage solutions

Historically, wine storage was the domain of underground cellars, designed to provide the cool, stable temperatures and humidity levels that wine needs to age gracefully. These cellars, often part of private homes in wine-producing regions, set the standard for ideal wine storage conditions: darkness, consistent temperature around 12-14°C (55-57°F), and relative humidity around 60-70%.

In recent decades, technology has revolutionised wine storage. Climate-controlled wine cabinets and refrigeration units can replicate the conditions of a traditional cellar, making it possible to store wine in any environment. Innovations such as dual-zone temperature controls, UV-protected glass doors, and vibration reduction technology have further enhanced the ability to preserve wine at optimal conditions.

Moreover, professional wine storage facilities offer a level of sophistication and security beyond what most private cellars can provide. These facilities are equipped with state-of-the-art climate control systems, backup power sources to protect against outages, and high-security measures to guard against theft. They also offer inventory management services, ensuring that wines are stored properly and can be easily accessed or audited by their owners.

For investors, the use of such facilities can enhance the value of their collection, as provenance – the history of wine’s ownership and storage – becomes increasingly important in the secondary fine wine market.

The role of provenance in wine investment

Provenance is a critical factor in the wine investment market. A well-documented history of storage and ownership can significantly increase a wine’s value, serving as proof of its authenticity and condition. Professional storage facilities often provide detailed records that can be invaluable in establishing provenance, making wines stored in these conditions more desirable to collectors and investors alike.

In contrast, wines stored in private cellars may lack comprehensive records, potentially diminishing their market value, regardless of their quality or rarity.

In-bond storage

Bonded status is what unlocks the secondary market for fine wine.

Storing wine in-bond means that the wine is kept in a secure warehouse under government supervision without the payment of duty or tax. For wine investors, this presents a significant advantage, as it allows for the storage of wine without the financial burden of taxes until the wine is either sold or removed for personal consumption. Typically, wines can be stored in-bond at their point of entry into a country or transferred to a bonded warehouse specifically designated for wine storage. The wines stored in-bond are trade-ready; they sit within the secondary market ecosystem and can be made immediately available for sale and collection.

Implications for wine investment

The ability to store wine in-bond has several implications for investors.

Deferred taxes: Investors can defer tax payments, improving cash flow and reducing initial investment costs. This is particularly beneficial for wines intended for resale, as the duty and VAT (value-added tax) are only paid if and when the wine enters the domestic market.

International trading: In-bond storage facilitates easier trading of wine on an international scale. Wines can be bought and sold multiple times while still in-bond, without incurring tax liabilities until they are finally withdrawn for consumption. This can significantly enhance the liquidity of wine investments.

Provenance and condition: Bonded warehouses are not only secure but are also designed to provide optimal storage conditions, similar to professional wine storage facilities. The rigorous documentation and oversight in these warehouses ensure the provenance and condition of the wine, crucial factors in maintaining and enhancing its value.

Market value: Wines stored in-bond are often more attractive to buyers, especially in international markets. The assurance of proper storage conditions and the ease of transfer without immediate tax implications make these wines more desirable, potentially increasing their market value.

Storing wine with WineCap

WineCap use London City Bond’s newest storage facility, Drakelow. Three and a half miles of tunnels were blasted out of solid rock, as part of the lavish refurbishment of this former nuclear bunker, which started operating as a dedicated wine storage facility in 2023. Highly secure with entirely natural permanent temperature control supported by the latest dehumidification equipment, Drakelow is the natural choice for maturing reserves.

Every wine in our storage facility gets its own unique identification number (UIDS), thus ensuring that each case has clear ownership.

The practice of storing wine in-bond in bonded warehouses represents a critical aspect of the wine investment landscape. As the wine market continues to mature, the importance of professional storage and provenance documentation is likely to grow, influencing both the strategies of investors and the broader dynamics of wine collecting and investing. Whether opting for a meticulously maintained home cellar or entrusting a collection to a professional storage facility, understanding the impact of storage on wine’s quality and value is essential for any serious wine investor.

Speak to one of our wine investment experts and start building your portfolio. Schedule your free consultation today.

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How could 2024’s interest rates impact fine wine?

  • If interest rates increase or stay the same, there may be golden opportunities for savvy investors to fill their wine cellars for lower-than-average prices.
  • If the Bank of England starts to drop interest rates consecutively around May, we would expect the fine wine market to show signs of growth around autumn.
  • Rather than focus on short-term economic events, we encourage investors to buy high quality fine wines, and ideally hold them for at least a decade.

Today’s interest rates are 5.25% in the UK. That is a lot higher than most of us are used to. For example, in 2019 they were just 0.75%. But it is reassuring that they have not been cranked up even more over the past months. Consensus among most economists is that the rates will surely come down again in 2024. The question is, by how much?

Unlike the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England is warning markets not to expect big cuts. As Reuter’s reports, its ‘policy stance assumes a slow fall in interest rates to 4.25% in three years’ time’. However, many economists think that the rates will fall sooner.

Contrary to the central bank, Goldman Sachs predict rates will dip below 4% by the end of the year, marking a drop of more than 1.25%. Experts at Deutsche Bank are almost aligned, anticipating a 1.0% dip in the same timeframe. Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics consultancy, expects the bank to start lowering rates in May. However, other economists suggest that June is more realistic.

In this article, we consider what these different scenarios mean for fine wine investors. When to buy, when to sell and when to hold are all critical questions as we dive into 2024.

If interest rates increase or stay the same

Continued high rates would probably be unwelcome news for most fine wine investors. Dovish policies like this usually led to a stronger pound, making wine more expensive for international buyers if sourcing from the UK market.

Asian and American buyers are a significant part of the fine wine market and cutting them out would probably lead to a dip in prices, as supply outstrips demand.

High interest rates could also temper domestic demand. After all, when the economy shrinks, there is less money for luxury goods. Buyers may opt for better ‘value’ purchases.

The compelling interest rates of savings accounts could also tempt investors away from illiquid assets. Over the short-term, putting cash into a bank account could seem like a safer bet. Even though, of course, over the long-term, the inflation risk is severe.

Ongoing high interest rates would likely create a buyer’s market. For the first few months of the year, until May, we could expect this to continue happening. Around this time, there may be golden opportunities for savvy investors to fill their cellars for lower-than-average prices.

If interest rates decrease by 0.25% – 2%

The most likely scenario is that the Bank of England will gradually reduce rates, starting from late spring or early summer. Most analysts (including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Fidelity) seem to be anticipating a drop of at least 1.0%, and the markets have already priced this into products and forecasts. As seen in the news recently, inflation seems to be cooling, creating the right environment for interest rate cuts. For fine wine investors, this makes for reassuring reading.

Shrinking interest rates will make other low-risk investments like gold or savings accounts less compelling. Investors will probably start to feel the pull of more assets with more generous risk premiums. During the second half of the year, if interest goes down, fine wine prices might slowly increase.

A growing economy usually comes with more money to pop Champagne and see the year through in style. We’d expect the fine wine market to perk up in this environment.

Lower interest rates would probably be welcome news for international investors, as this usually signals better exchange rates. In 2021 and 2022, the weak pound and strong dollar stimulated Asian and American markets, boosting fine wine prices.

If the Bank of England starts to drop interest rates consecutively around May, we would expect the fine wine market to show signs of growth by around autumn. Prices would probably begin to creep up and continue rising with each rate cut. This would balance out the market, likely creating more demand and opportunities for sellers.

If interest rates plunge by 2% or more

It seems unlikely that interest rates will ever return to their pre-pandemic lows. Some experts, like those at Fidelity, argue that the previous rates were even kept ‘artificially low’, and overdue a correction. However, as recent years have taught us, unexpected things can happen.

If interest rates nosedive by more than 2% over 2024, it would probably be exceptionally good for fine wine investors. Both global and local demand would likely increase, as we saw in 2021. With the cost of borrowing plunging, we could expect to see more budgets allocated to luxury products like fine wine, creating more of a sellers’ market.

Fine wine investors in 2021 already enjoyed the rewards that come with a weak pound and low interest rates. International buyers leap into the market, creating a surge in demand.

If the interest rates cascade down to 3% or less by the end of the year, we would expect to see demand outstrip supply, leading to a hike in fine wine prices. This would be welcome news for sellers looking to cash-in their returns.

In the long-term, does it matter?

These predictions cover interest rate hikes over the next twelve months. But the real returns of fine wine tend to come in the longer run. As the Liv-ex 1000 index shows, fine wine prices on average have nearly doubled since 2014.

Rather than focus on short-term economic events, we encourage investors to buy high quality fine wines, care for them properly, and ideally hold them for at least a decade. For us, this is the true beauty of wine; its value is mostly intrinsic.

If you’d like to talk to an expert about buying or selling fine wine, we are just a call or an email away.